Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

With the weekend over and a new week ahead of us, we’ve got another giant load of Champions League qualifying games ahead of us. So let’s take a look at what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s complete UCL qualification match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this week’s UCL qualifiers. ✅

Sharing is caring: Help grow the team and show your friends you care — send them this link https://whataretheodds.io/subscribe

This week, we’ve got 14 great UEFA Champions League qualification games coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in Central European Summer Time)

28 Jul Tuesday

• Canceled — FK Vardar Skopje vs Sabah Baku

• 17:00 — Kuopio PS vs Sabah Baku

• 18:00 — Lincoln Red Imps vs Mjallby

• 20:00 — Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun

• 20:15 — NK Celje vs FK Egnatia

• 20:45 — Hearts vs Sturm Graz

• 21:00 — Shamrock Rovers vs Ararat Armenia

29 Jul Wednesday

• 17:00 — Kairat vs AC Omonia

• 18:00 — Kauno Zalgiris vs KI Klaksvik

• 19:00 — Lech Poznan vs AGF Aarhus

• 19:30 — CS Universitatea Craiova vs Levski

• 19:30 — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik

• 20:00 — Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahce

• 20:00 — Red Star Belgrade vs Larne FC

• 20:15 — Slovan Bratislava vs Iberia 1999

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ NK Celje vs FK Egnatia
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 28 July; 20:15 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: Egnatia’s home performance in the first leg makes them look stronger than they’re likely to be here, leaving us with some nice odds on a high-probability Celje victory.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Five of Egnatia’s last seven games produced over 2.5 goals, including a 6-goal match (3-3) in the first leg of this fixture.

  • Both defenses are reasonably leaky — Egnatia has just two clean sheets in seven while Celje have conceded in nearly every recent game.

  • Over their last ten matches, Egnatia average 3.5 yellow cards per game to Celje’s 2.1.

• CXSports says: It’s easy to look at the 3-3 draw in the first leg of this match and assume the best bet’s to split it down the middle. Unfortunately for Egnatia, the scoreline tends to flatter them in a way that probably won’t be applicable in this leg.
  
  Let’s start with the first signal — experience. Egnatia’s never progressed past the qualifying rounds of any European competition, and have never gone beyond this exact round. Celje, on the other hand, reached the Conference League quarter-finals as recently as the 2024-25 season and the round of 16 last season.
  
  Now, of course, that’s not a decisive edge on its own — pedigree doesn’t defend corners. But couple it with Celje’s home advantage in this leg — a home advantage that’s seen them average around 2.5 goals per game on the way to a domestic title — and things start leaning their way a little more.
  
  Of course, Egnatia still deserves to be respected here. Egnatia can clearly score — they managed 3 in the first leg of this fixture. However, while Egnatia can score given the occasion, they tend to do so with a good deal of inconsistency — they’ve scored one or fewer goals in seven of their last 10 European matches. That’s a fairly damning inconsistency for a team that’s now being asked to score at a hostile away ground against a team that’s adept at leveraging its home advantage. And if we throw in the fact that they’ve only kept two clean sheets in their last seven, there’s an above-average chance Celje’s going to take double advantage of that home advantage to open up the margin.
  
  With that said, Celje’s defense isn’t exactly pristine either — they tend to concede in just about every game. So expect Egnatia to manage at least one goal in response, even if Celje’s superior quality and home advantage make it unlikely Egnatia will manage to keep touch in this one.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Celje

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Celje Victory

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.44

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.78

⚽ Red Star Belgrade vs Larne FC
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Wednesday 29 July; 20:00 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A brutally one-sided fixture with an outcome that’s basically destiny.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Red Star lead 4-0 after the first leg. Larne must win by five goals to advance in normal time — a feat no Northern Irish side has ever produced.

  • Larne’s only won three of their last 13 European home games and failed to score in six.

  • Red Star won their domestic league by 13 points with a massive +64 goal difference.

• CXSports says: This is one of the more brutally one-sided fixtures in this year’s UCL qualifying lineup, and we’ve already seen the results of it in the first leg — Red Star Belgrade beat Northern Ireland 4-0. And now, they’re bring that four-goal lead back home for the final leg.
  
  Of course, that’s not to say that Larne’s totally hopeless. At home, they’re Northern Irish champions, unbeaten in six before this game with five clean sheets, and won their first-ever Champions League matches against San Marino’s Tre Fiori earlier this month. However, at the European level, they’re generally horribly outclassed, even when playing at home — they’ve only won only three of their last 13 European home fixtures and failed to score in six of those.
  
  As for the relevance of speaking about Larne’s home stats here — those stats only go to show that their 0-4 loss to Red Star in the first leg wasn’t just a case of bad luck. Red Star simply is that much better. Not that this is any surprise — they did win the 2025-26 Serbian SuperLiga with 75 points, 87 goals scored, and just 23 conceded after 30 games. And Larne, for all of its domestic superiority, isn’t quite at the same standard as some of the competition Red Star faces in its domestic league.
  
  Of course, while Red Star’s clearly superior here, we still have to deal with the whole motivation question. With a four-goal cushion, a league fixture against Vojvodina just three days ago, and a third qualifying round to prepare for, just about every incentive here suggests Red Star will be keen to make this one a lower-intensity evening, which might cap the winning margin.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Red Star

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Red Star Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.09

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.57

⚽ Slovan Bratislava vs Iberia 1999
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Wednesday 29 July; 20:15 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A solid favorite with some solid odds make this one worth a look.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Slovan lead this fixture 2-0 after the first leg, leaving Iberia with the task of winning by three if they want to advance in normal time.

  • Iberia’s conceded 2+ goals in six of their last seven European matches.

  • Slovan’s only lost two of their last 10 matches, reached the third qualifying round last season, and have extensive continental experience  while Iberia’s never been this far before.

• CXSports says: After the first leg, Slovan Bratislava now get to bring a two-goal lead back home, where they are eight-time reigning national champions who reached the third qualifying round last season and have only lost only two of their last ten matches.
  
  That’s going to be tough on Iberia 1999, who were already playing from behind even before the first leg given they’re playing at this level for the first time in their history. The fact they now have to win by at least 2 goals on the road to stand any chance only makes things worse.
  
  And that situation only looks worse for Iberia 1999 the closer you look — they average 1.42 goals per game, even at home (where they failed to score against Slovan Bratislava in the first leg). And not only must they score — they’ll also need to defend, which is arguably an even bigger weakness. In the lead up to this fixture, they conceded four across two legs against Estonia’s Flora in the previous round, and in their last seven European matches have only conceded less than two goals in a single game. In short, they’re a side that concedes heavily and scores lightly.
  
  As for how this actually plays out on the field, our guess is that Iberia’s need to push (and the inevitable gaps that will leave) combined with Slovan Bratislava’s front-foot style of football tends to suggest this will, at the very least, be a moderately open game with chances at both ends rather than a boring lockdown. That might mean Iberia may manage to score. However, any scoring Iberia manages will almost certainly be more than matched by a Slovan side playing with an already comfortable lead at home.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Slovan Bratislava

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Slovan Bratislava Victory

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.41

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.49-1.65

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. We’ll be back later this week to cover the bulk of this week’s Europa League qualifications.

Until then, enjoy the football.

PS: This week’s Europa League games get underway tomorrow with Apollon Limassol vs Dila Gori (19:00), Riga FC vs FK Vardar Skopje (19:00), CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Trnava (19:30), and KF Drita vs Floriana (20:00) scheduled.