Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week in “whoops, that’s not how I wanted to go viral”, Spurs boss Thomas Frank was caught drinking from an Arsenal cup.

Naturally, fans went looking for an explanation. This guy seems to know what’s up… 😂

And here’s what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s best EPL odds. 🦵⚽

• A little Arsenal cup trivia. 🏟️✨

• A little quote about risk-taking. ⚠️🔥

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⚽ Man United vs Man City
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 17 Jan; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While this is far from guaranteed for City, their chances are solid, particularly with respect to the odds on offer.

• CXSports says: There’s a clear statistical difference here. On one hand, we’ve got City, scoring at 2.05 goals per game while only conceding 0.90 goals per game. And on the other, we’ve got United scoring 1.71 goals per game while conceding 1.52 goals per game. And then we’ve got the head-to-head history, where City have managed to outscore United to the tune of a dozen extra goals scored in their last ten clashes. And while City’s recent slump — three consecutive draws — might suggest that they’re not firing on all cylinders, they’re still performing better than United. In short, City holds a statistical edge in both attack and defence. As such, City should take this one, even if it may only be by a narrow margin.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.95

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.37-1.53

⚽ Chelsea vs Brentford
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 17 Jan; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With a tight game seemingly on the cards, backing a draw here looks like a worthy punt.

• CXSports says: Chelsea is currently pulling about 1.8 goals per game in the league this season, which isn’t too bad, and it certainly puts them on a similar level to Brentford. However, they’ve also struggled to maintain the basics at times, particularly when it comes to letting the occasional sloppy goal leak through their defense or successfully closing out matches. That might not hurt them too much against Brentford, who, in most respects, are performing somewhat similarly, even if their recent results are markedly better than Chelsea’s. However, this derby has had a tendency to end in deadlocked scorelines in recent meetings (2-2 and 0-0), and, with both teams being similarly unremarkable, the lack of any clear edge here could mean this match is also headed towards a draw, even if it’s far from a certainty.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.20-4.21

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.68

⚽ Liverpool vs Burnley
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 17 Jan; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A nice clean edge with some nice clean odds. A nice little play if you don’t need things to be too flashy.

• CXSports says: Liverpool is the vastly superior side here, both in raw, unfiltered numbers and in overall season context. Currently, they’re averaging about 1.5 goals scored per match compared to Burnley’s ~1, and the fact that Burnley’s defence is leaking nearly two goals per game compared to Liverpool's ~1.3 only helps confirm the imbalance. As for season context, a quick glance at the table is all it really takes — Burnley’s second last, while Liverpool’s sitting somewhat comfortably in 4th place. Throw in the home advantage on top of all this, and a clean Liverpool victory looks like the only reasonable outcome here.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.26

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.17

⚽ Sunderland vs Crystal Palace
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 17 Jan; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s a nice double chance here with a reasonable probability of hitting.

• CXSports says: On paper, there isn’t too much separating Sunderland and Crystal Palace this season. Both have roughly similar league points (Sunderland 30-28 Palace). Both have scored at almost the same rate (Sunderland 21-22 Palace). And both are also conceding at almost identical rates (Sunderland 22-23 Palace). And things only start to look even more balanced once we look at the only recent head-to-head between these two — a deadlocked 0-0 draw. Now, that’s not to say Sunderland won’t be able to use their home advantage here to extract some sort of edge — they might. However, there’s not much in it here, and this could easily end in another draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Sunderland or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Sunderland / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.48

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.70-1.92

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

Based on their performance this season, you might be surprised to know that our guy in the intro was basically right when he said, “Arsenal don’t have cups.”

To prove it, here’s a quick trivia quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: In which season did Arsenal last win the Premier League?

• A: 1993-94

• B: 2003-04

• C: 2013-14

• D: 2023-24

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Tottenham vs West Ham
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 17 Jan; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The odds on this one are good enough that we’re ready to back Tottenham, even if it’s far from a sure thing.

• CXSports says: Tottenham comes into this match with two contradictory points being true at the same time. Overall, they score more and concede less than most of their lower mid-table peers (with the exception of Brighton, they’re the only side with a positive goal difference). However, despite this, their results overall skew more negative, with 7W, 5D, and 8L. Further, their home advantage this season has been all but absent. With that said, they are unquestionably better in quality, squad depth, and attacking output than West Ham, who, try as they might, have only managed a measly 3 victories all season while posting a disastrous -21 goal difference. And that might just be enough to see them deliver a positive result this time around.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Tottenham

Option #1

• Bet: Tottenham Victory

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.76

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.73

⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 17 Jan; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Arsenal’s stumble against Palace last week has people underestimating them. That’s pumped up the odds on this game in a very, very attractive way.

• CXSports says: This one shouldn’t need too much explaining. Nottingham Forest is on the edge of finding itself in a fight for survival with 21 points from 21 matches, leaving them 17th on the table. Arsenal, meanwhile, are topping the league and are virtually untouchable by all but the best clubs in the league, even if they did trip up in last week’s Crystal Palace meeting. The reality is, at this stage, that’s looking more like a once-off rather than a sign of any sort of “new normal,” so we expect this match to see a return to business as usual.

• Score prediction: 0-3 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.60

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.70-1.95

⚽ Wolves vs Newcastle
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 18 Jan; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With the Wolves making a miraculous turnaround, people are underestimating Newcastle’s edge here. The result is some juicy-looking odds.

• CXSports says: This could be an interesting one. Right now, we’re witnessing the Wolves pulling off what might look like a miraculous turnaround after securing a victory and two draws in their last three games. But let’s be honest here — with the exception of the draw against United, those results were all against lower-ranked squads. Newcastle, by contrast, will represent a serious challenge for the Wolves. They’re demonstrably better in both offense and defense, and they have the results to prove it — three straight victories on the trot. That’s not to say the Wolves won’t pose a threat — they’re potentially moving out of their “predictably disastrous” phase. However, at this stage, it would be safer to assume Newcastle is still the far superior squad in this game.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Newcastle

Option #1

• Bet: Newcastle Victory

• Odds Range: 1.58-1.78

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.22

⚽ Aston Villa vs Everton
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 18 Jan; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While we’re not convinced Villa’s superiority is final here, the double chance play does represent a nice, safe bet.

• CXSports says: This is a nice, clean one. Aston Villa are clearly the stronger one this season — they’re averaging 1.57 goals per game while only conceding 1.14. Everton, by contrast, scores only 1.1 goals per match and concedes slightly more than that at about 1.19 per game. That more or less backs up their mid-table status and rules them out as a serious threat. Of course, Villa can technically be beaten, even if it’s statistically unlikely. And let’s not forget that Everton’s inability to consistently finish might be a hindrance here — their 0-0 stalemate earlier this season, where they out-shot Villa but couldn’t score, illustrates this perfectly. As such, expect this game to go in Villa’s favor, even if Everton might manage to put up something resembling a fight.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.74

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Aston Villa / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.11-1.19

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Thomas Frank is a man of many contradictions.

And we’re not just talking about drinking from an Arsenal cup while leading the Spurs.

Check this quote, for example.

So, not taking risks is taking risks…

Make it make sense!

Here’s our take — decisions always carry risk.

• “Will this pay off?”

• “Will this come back to bite me?”

You get the gist.

And the decision to never take a risk — to do nothing — is also a decision.

It’s a decision that bets standing still will be enough.

And that is a risk, whether you like it or not.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Masters of Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [B] — Arsenal last won the Premier League all the way back in the 2003-04 season, over 20 years ago. Discover more trivia like this with the Arsenal FC Trivia Quiz.