Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s been a while, but it’s finally here — the Premier League makes a return this weekend with the first matches in England’s top-flight since what feels like forever (September 20 was the last match, to be precise). So let’s not waste any more time.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This weekend’s full Premier League and La Liga schedules. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this weekend’s Premier League and LaLiga action. ✅

Sharing is caring: Help grow the team and show your friends you care — send them this link https://whataretheodds.io/subscribe

This weekend, we’ve got a great bunch of matches coming up across the Premier League and Spain’s La Liga. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🇪🇸 La Liga

Friday 09 October

• 21:00 — Malaga vs Espanyol

Saturday 10 October

• 14:00 — Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao

• 16:15 — Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

• 18:30 — Barcelona vs Getafe

• 21:00 — Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Sunday 11 October

• 14:00 — Elche vs Celta Vigo

• 16:15 — Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna

• 18:30 — Real Betis vs Osasuna

• 21:00 — Racing Santander vs Valencia

Monday 12 October

• 21:00 — Levante vs Sevilla

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League

Saturday 10 October

• 13:30 — Arsenal vs Leeds

• 16:00 — Aston Villa vs Brentford

• 16:00 — Chelsea vs Bournemouth

• 16:00 — Ipswich vs Fulham

• 16:00 — Sunderland vs Brighton

• 18:30 — Man Utd vs Tottenham

Sunday 11 October

• 15:00 — Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

• 15:00 — Hull City vs Everton

• 17:30 — Liverpool vs Man City

Monday 12 October

• 21:00 — Coventry City vs Newcastle

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Arsenal vs Leeds
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 10 October; 13:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Last season, Leeds won 2 of 19 away league games while conceding 1.84 goals per game on the road.

  • Leeds’ defence this season has arguably been lucky — they’ve conceded just 3 goals from chances worth 6.46 expected goals.

  • Arsenal’s won the last 8 games in this fixture and is undefeated in 16 games dating back to 2003.

• CXSports says: Arsenal will likely win this. And while there are multiple reasons why this is so, there’s one that stands out to us immediately. Leeds is a team that tends to underperform on the road. And now they’re facing off against the defending champs on the defending champs’ home ground. And while we can certainly say that maybe this season’s differing (Leeds’ has gotten off to a good start), there’s good reason to believe that it might not be. For reference, last season they only won twice on the road while conceding 35 away goals at a rate of 1.84 a game. This season, their away record (which has improved over last season’s) only includes two away trips in which their defence’s headline number — 0.6 goals conceded per game — hides a sorry reality. The chances they’ve allowed through would normally produce about 6.5 goals. And, over the long run, if they keep that up, the headline number will eventually catch up — the simple fact of the matter is that actually good defences give up few chances, while lucky ones give up chances and watch them miss. Leeds looks like it’s doing a bit more of the latter right now.
  
  Of course, that’s not to say Arsenal’s not without its weaknesses. It just got absolutely hammered by Brighton who slipped three past Arsenal without Arsenal managing a single response. Although, much like Leeds’ defensive record this season, the Brighton match looks like a bit of an outlier. If we ignore the Brighton result, Arsenal’s 4 other games delivered 4 straight victories with an aggregate of 8-1. And, unlike Leeds, that doesn’t look like early season luck, either — Arsenal are the defending champs, after all.
  
  Then, we’ve also got the head-to-head history here — Arsenal’s undefeated in this fixture in 16 straight games dating back to 2003, and has won the last 8 games. And the last two alone (both played in the 2025-26 Premier League season) resulted in an aggregate of Arsenal 9-0 Leeds (4-0, 5-0).
  
  With that said, there’s a chance we won’t see quite so big of a margin this time around. First, we need to give Leeds’ defense some benefit of the doubt. And second, Arsenal’s currently missing a forward, a winger and their best defender, while their main striker has barely played. So maybe this one turns into a bit of a grind relative to the last two times these two played. Albeit, a grind that still finishes strongly in Arsenal’s favor.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Arsenal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.44

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.29

⚽ Barcelona vs Getafe
🏟️ Spanish La Liga
📅 Saturday 10 October; 18:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Getafe have scored just 4 goals in 7 games (0.57 per game) and have failed to score a single goal in their last two away games.

  • Getafe’s conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game, although their last five opponents are only averaging 1.03 goals scored per game (below the league average), while Barcelona scores 4.43 per game (almost three times the league average).

  • Barcelona are unbeaten in the last five head-to-heads (4 wins, 1 draw) and have only conceded a single goal in those games.

• CXSports says: This one won’t even be close. The reason for that is simple: Getafe can’t score, while Barcelona can. And we’re not talking about a small difference here. Barcelona averages 4.43 goals a game, while Getafe’s only averaging 0.57. Or, said another way, Barcelona’s scoring nearly 8 goals for every 1 that Getafe scores. And while we might be tempted to think Getafe’s defensive stats will somehow help here — “but they only concede 1.0 goals per game” — they won’t. That 1.0 goals conceded per game average came from playing teams that average 1.03 goals scored per game. In other words, Getafe’s defense has averaged the same number of goals conceded as their opponents manage to score on average. And did we mention that Barcelona averages 4.43 per game?
  
  Of course, Getafe’s coach does have a reputation for knowing how to slow down a game, so they could certainly sit deep and stay compact. But the net result of that will probably only be to limit the damage. After all, a slow, ugly game only helps the side that actually scores from its chances — simply allowing fewer chances through only helps if by “fewer” we mean “zero”. And let’s be serious here — what are the odds that a mediocre defense live Getafe can limit an attack like Barcelona to zero chances?
  
  Of course, for all this talk about how freely Barcelona scores, we do need to address the elephant in the room — Raphinha (14 goals and 3 assists this season) is waiting on tests after an injury. And reports say that Barcelona’s coach doesn’t plan to risk him. So that might slow Barcelona down somewhat. Although, even if we take his 14 goals out and pretend that whoever replaces him gets none, Barcelona’s still going to score goals at a higher rate than the average La Liga side.
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, even if we assume that Getafe manages to clamp down in defense and that Raphina’s probable absence makes an impact, this still finishes clearly in Barcelona’s favor. So let’s just assume Getafe’s defense and Raphina’s absence knocks a goal or two off their average for the season, while Getafe, who hasn’t been able to score, remains incapable of scoring.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Barcelona

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Barcelona Victory

• Odds Range: 1.02-1.10

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.36-1.65

⚽ Real Madrid vs Villarreal
🏟️ Spanish La Liga
📅 Saturday 10 October; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Real Madrid has averaged 4.0 goals per game at home this season (12 in 3, all wins).

  • Villarreal has conceded in every one of their games this season at a rate of 1.71 per game (above the 1.52 league average).

  • Against teams currently in the top seven, Villarreal’s taken 1 point from 4 games.

• CXSports says: Real Madrid will win this because their attack at home (4.0 per game on average) is going to overwhelm Villarreal who hasn’t shut out anyone all season (1.71 conceded on average; zero clean sheets). And then we’ve also got the fact that, in the last five head-to-heads these two have played over the last couple of years, Barcelona’s undefeated with 4 wins and 1 draw, with that draw coming in the oldest of those 5 matches, with the last four matches all ending in Barcelona’s favor with an aggregate score of 9-2.
  
  Of course, that’s not to say Villarreal are a totally hopeless team. After all, they did manage to finish third last season. And they have recently managed to score three goals in their last two games — a win at Malaga and a home win against Levante. Although, take those results with a giant grain of salt — Levante is currently #17 in La Liga, while Malaga’s dead last in 20th. Meanwhile, against teams that are actually in the top seven, they’ve only managed a single point from four games.
  
  As for the chinks in Real Madrid’s armor, there aren’t that many to speak of. The only notable thing leading into this game is their defence, which is currently featuring a centre patched together with tape — one centre-back suspended, another recovering from surgery, and a third just back from a knee problem. So Villarreal is probably in with a decent shot at actually scoring a goal here. Just don’t expect it to count for much if Real Madrid brings even half the attacking strength of which it’s capable.
  
  So where does that leave us? Obviously, we’re fairly confident in Madrid winning this. The only thing we’re not as confident about is the margin, other than the fact that we’re fairly sure there’ll probably be at least a 2-goal margin in Real Madrid’s favor.

• Score prediction: Real Madrid Victory

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Real Madrid Victory

• Odds Range: 1.24-1.40

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.50

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for the week. But we’ll be back bright and early on Monday morning as we gear up for the upcoming Round 2 in the Champions League.

Until then, enjoy the football.