Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s the last day of the group stage, and boy have we got a big story for you today. But more on that later.

First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• Canada’s way less friendly than you think. 🇨🇦

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇵🇦 Panama vs. England 🏴

• Group: Group L

• Time: 17:00 ET

• Venue: MetLife Stadium

• Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey

🇭🇷 Croatia vs. Ghana 🇬🇭

• Group: Group L

• Time: 17:00 ET

• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

• Location: Philadelphia

🇨🇴 Colombia vs. Portugal 🇵🇹

• Group: Group K

• Time: 19:30 ET

• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

• Location: Miami Gardens

🇨🇩 DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

• Group: Group K

• Time: 19:30 ET

• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

• Location: Atlanta

🇩🇿 Algeria vs. Austria 🇦🇹

• Group: Group J

• Time: 22:00 ET

• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium

• Location: Kansas City

🇯🇴 Jordan vs. Argentina 🇦🇷

• Group: Group J

• Time: 22:00 ET

• Venue: AT&T Stadium

• Location: Arlington, Texas

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

Everyone likes to think of Canada as one of the friendliest places on earth. Or, at least, most of us seem to think that it’s way friendly than its big bad neighbour to the south (the USA).

But it’s probably time to rethink that.

Earlier this week, the Spanish news outlet Diario AS published this story. For our non-Spanish-speaking readers, the headline/intro basically reads:

“Canada approved only four out of ten visa applications for 2026 World Cup fans: Canada processed nearly 17,000 applications for admission for 2026 World Cup fans and only 41% were approved. Ghana recorded the lowest acceptance rate among countries with the highest demand.”

And if you think that 41% number looks bad, it only gets worse (or better… depending on which country you’re from) once you dig into the actual numbers.

Let’s start with that headline number — 17,000 visa applications. That number’s the combined TRV/eTA application number for applications lodged between mid-November 2025 and March 31, 2026.

Now, that “eTA” bit — that’s an electronic travel authorization. Something more generally known as “visa-free” entry. And it’s only available to citizens of select countries. So, no surprises here — only 4% of eTA travellers were rejected entry to Canada.

But as for everyone else who needed a “normal” visa — their approval rate was only 32%. That’s right. Just 1 in every 3 World Cup fans applying for a Canadian visa was accepted. The other two thirds were denied.

And here’s the part that’s really shocking — Canada might actually be worse than the USA, which is really interesting when you consider how “bad” the USA was looking in the run up to the World Cup.

Of course, finding any numbers to actually back this up is kinda hard. But, we made an effort to do it anyway. And while the numbers we found aren’t directly comparable, this is what we came up with for the countries hit hardest by Canadian denials.

Now, as we noted, these numbers aren’t directly comparable — there’s a few “complications” here, starting with the fact the USA actually launched a specific “FIFA Pass” visa (which we couldn’t find numbers on).

Canada, on the other hand, didn’t create a special World Cup visa category. Instead, according to AS, Canadian “authorities explained that they worked together with FIFA and other federal agencies to expedite the procedures related to the tournament, although maintaining the usual immigration controls.”

And that’s why we went with the B-visa approval rate — the B-visa is the closest equivalent visa the USA has that maintains “usual immigration controls” to Canada’s TRV.

Also, the timelines don’t overlap as much as we’d wished — the Canadian numbers for mid-November 2025 through to the end of March 2026, while the USA numbers are from 2025. So, who knows… maybe the USA got way worse in the last 6 months… or maybe they got better… who knows?

In either case, the broader point is simple — while the USA certainly has a lot of “security theatre” and a whole lot of hostile political rhetoric, it’s probably way more friendly than what it’s made out to be. Or, at least, it’s starting to look friendly compared to its northerly neighbour… even if it did deny that one Somali referee.

And yeah, we know what you defenders of Canada are probably thinking here — “but what about Trump’s travel ban list!?”

Well, yeah, fair enough — that exists and there are problems for citizens of some countries. But it’s not like Canada’s not just outright rejecting people from some countries, too. To quote the AS article once more, applicants from “nations such as Syria, Uganda and Sri Lanka… did not receive approvals during the period considered in the report.”

With all of that said, we do have to be fair to Canada — there might be an explanation for the high rejection rates. Or, at least, for some of the rejections.

The Hindustan Times also picked up on this story about Canada’s high visa rejection rate. And in it, they note that certain immigration agents had been using the World Cup as an opportunity to drum up business with misleading claims. To quote one agent the Hindustan Times reported on, some agent claims were basically along the lines of, “This is a golden opportunity for those who have sought to settle in Canada for a long time. Canada announced new public policy that those who go to watch the FIFA World Cup, will also be able to work on the visitor visa,”

Clearly, this wasn’t the case. But you can see how unsuspecting victims of these agents were lured into submitting visa applications in the hopes of settling in Canada — applications which would naturally attract a high rejection rate.

Still, the data from the AS report is interesting, if only for the fact that it shows that sometimes the myths we all buy into aren’t always true.

⚽ Panama vs England
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Saturday 27 June; 23:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: You don’t always find an easy win with great odds. But this might just be one… if England don’t screw it up.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Panama’s currently #42 in the FIFA World Rankings, and has 0W/0D/2L with 0 goals scored and 2 conceded after 2 World Cup matches.

  • England’s currently #4 in the FIFA World Rankings, and has 1W/1D/0L with 4 goals scored and 2 conceded after 2 World Cup matches.

  • The last time these two met, England thrashed Panama 6-1.

• CXSports says: If you’d asked us the outcome of this match a week ago, we probably would have said “England for sure” without batting an eyelid. After all, they’d just defeated Croatia 4-2, so Panama should be a walk in the park. But then they had to go and do that whole 0-0 draw against Ghana who are, if we’re being honest here, probably another step down the footballing pecking order compared with Panama. Or, at least, they’re another step down if we look at historical performance alone.
  
  But here’s something interesting — Ghana (#65 in the FIFA rankings) also defeated Panama (#42) 1-0 in this World Cup. So there’s a good case to be made here that Ghana’s stepped up its game recently. And, if they have and this isn’t all just good luck, then there’s a good chance that England simply failed to take Ghana as seriously as they should have.
  
  So let’s assume that was the problem and that England’s now learned its lesson. That means we should hopefully expect a regular “full force” display from the Englishmen here. And, if we get it, then this match is going to end in a proper thrashing.
  
  But let’s assume we don’t see a full force English side. What are Panama’s prospects then? Well, honestly, they’re not great. After 2 World Cup games, they’ve failed to score a single goal and have lost both games. About the only positive thing they’ve got to show for their efforts so far is the fact they’ve only conceded 2 goals, which isn’t bad. Especially when you consider they only conceded one of those to Croatia.
  
  So either way, Panama’s looking like it’s going to struggle here if winning or drawing is the name of the game. However, given their defense has done as well as it has so far, we might at least expect them to limit the amount of damage England can inflict on them, even if the only impact it has is reducing the number of goals they lose by.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for England

Bet Option #1

• Bet: England Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.36

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.46-1.69

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. It’s also our final installment for this World Cup’s group stage.

But stay tuned — we’ll be back on Monday with plenty more World Cup coverage right as the knockout rounds start to ramp up.

Until then, enjoy the football.