Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

That’s it. The World Cup’s over. France was an utter disappointment (again!) in its third-place playoff against England. But at least Spain lived up to our expectations to deliver a “nail biter that [was] decided in the dying moments” with a single extra time goal at the 106 minute mark deciding the match. And thanks to some decent 2+ odds on the Spanish victory, we at least managed to offset France’s failure enough that we at least finished our weekend slightly ahead.

Anyway, that’s the past — time to move on at look at what’s coming up. Namely, this week’s Champions League Qualifications.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s Champions League Qualification schedule. 🗓️

• Three quick picks worth paying attention to. ✅

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This week, round 2 of the Champions League qualification matches gets underway, with 14 matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in GMT)

Tuesday 21 July

• 16:00 — Ararat Armenia vs Shamrock Rovers

• 16:00 — Mjallby vs Lincoln Red Imps

• 16:00 — Sabah Baku vs Kuopio PS

• 17:00 — Iberia 1999 vs Slovan Bratislava

• 18:00 — AGF Aarhus vs Lech Poznan

• 18:00 — FC Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb

• 18:30 — Fenerbahce vs Gornik Zabrze

• 18:45 — Sturm Graz vs Hearts

• 19:00 — KI Klaksvik vs Kauno Zalgiris

• 19:00 — Larne FC vs Red Star Belgrade

• 19:00 — Vikingur Reykjavik vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Wednesday 22 July

• 17:00 — AC Omonia vs Kairat

• 17:30 — Levski vs CS Universitatea Craiova

• 19:00 — FK Egnatia vs NK Celje

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Mjallby vs Lincoln Red Imps
🏟️ Champions League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 20 July; 18:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Don’t let Lincoln Red Imps’s domestic stats mislead you — Mjallby’s pretty close to being a sure thing in this one.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Lincoln’s unbeaten in 18-matches, with 16 victories, 2 draws, and 50 goals scored. 

  • Lincoln’s scored in 14 consecutive matches in a streak stretching back to mid-February.

  • Mjallby are winless in 7 games and have conceded in 9 straight games.

• CXSports says: Lincoln Red Imps arrive with a stat sheet that’s probably best described a “flashy”. Yes, they’re unbeaten in 18 with 16 wins, 50 goals, and a clean-sheet(ish) defensive record. But, that was put together inside what’s probably the weakest  top division league within the entire UEFA system — the Gibraltar Football League. And, the one time they faced non-Gibraltarian opposition (Inter Escaldes, from Andorra… another of Europe’s lower tiers) they only won 4-2 on aggregate whilst conceding a goal in each leg. So, already, this otherwise imposing-looking team’s already leaking against modest competition. Ratchet up the level of competition again, and it’s probably reasonable to expect the whole things going to score less and leak more.
  
  Of course, Mjallby’s numbers don’t look great — they’re winless in seven and have conceded in nine their last 9 straight games. But those stats were generated in a league that sits multiple rungs above anything Lincoln’s met in a while — a “struggling” Allsvenskan champion is still a professional, well-drilled outfit operating at a level Gibraltarian football simply doesn’t reach. The base rate matters here, too — Gibraltarian clubs almost never get past established mid-tier European league sides, which further reinforces the need to heavily discount Lincoln’s stats relative to Mjallby’s.
  
  With that said, this might not be a walk in the park for Mjallby — their confidence has no doubt taken a hit given the results, and their defending has been sloppy enough to concede in nine straight games. So Lincoln’s habit of scoring in every match they play (even accounting for weak opposition) might make a Mjallby clean sheet unlikely, even if Lincoln’s got next to no chance of causing an upset in this one.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Mjallby

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Mjallby Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.21

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 2.12-2.75

⚽ Fenerbahce vs Gornik Zabrze
🏟️ Champions League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 20 July; 20:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s shaping up to look like a heavily one-sided affair.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Fenerbahce has a 25-match unbeaten league run (the longest in the Süper Lig 2025-26).

  • Gornik has a league scoring rate of roughly 1.5 goals per game (50 in 34), with no player topping 7 in the league.

  • Gornik’s goalkeeper (Tomasz Loska) is suspended for the first leg suspended — their backup (Philipp Schulze) will be handling this one.

• CXSports says: Both teams here are arriving on “reasonably equal” footing after finishing second at home in their respective leagues. Of course, a runner-up medal in the Turkish Super Lig and a runner-up in the Polish Ekstraklasa are hardly the same thing. Although, in this case, that only makes Fenerbahce’s 25-match unbeaten run and their 62-goals-in-28 scoring rate look even stronger in the context of this game, even if Gornik’s numbers are arguably a little tidier (albeit thinner). Of course, league inferiority doesn’t make Gornik a total non-starter — they are a decent professional side who did also manage to win the annual domestic Polish Cup knockout competition, even if that doesn’t equate with “match winning” form at this level.
  
  We also can’t help but note how some of the situational details swing the same way. Fenerbahce’s playing at home, fresh off three convincing preseason victories, including a 4-0 over Pogon Szczecin (another Ekstraklasa side). Meanwhile, Gornik’s arriving off the back of a 3-1 Super Cup defeat, and without their first-choice goalkeeper Tomasz Loska (suspended).
  
  As such, this one looks like it should be a controlled home side victory where Fenerbahce’s superior level and home advantage should combine with Gornik’s goalie downgrade to create a rather one-sided dynamic.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Fenerbahce

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Fenerbahce Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.24

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.72

⚽ Larne FC vs Red Star Belgrade
🏟️ Champions League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 20 July; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Balkan royalty with deep UCL experience takes on a relatively flimsy Northern Irish club with next to no experience at this level.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Red Star has 173 Champions League appearances while Larne only has a handful of games at this level.

  • Red Star scored just eight goals in ten European matches last season, but still managed five straight European wins by 1-0.

  • Larne has only won three of their last 13 European home games.

• CXSports says: Domestically, Larne’s not a bad side — they’re champions of Northern Ireland (three league titles in four years) and unbeaten in six. However, that’s domestically — a small, low-budget division that ranks among UEFA’s weakest leagues. Meanwhile, Red Star Belgrade have won nine Serbian titles (a much bigger achievement than in Northern Ireland) in a row and just completed a domestic double.
  
  There’s also a large experience gap here — Red Star has a total of 173 Champions League appearances to their name, while Larne’s entire UCL experience boils down to a handful of first round qualification games. That’s going to make this a big step up for Larne who’s only achievement here was beating Tre Fiori in the first round. So facing a side that’s basically Balkan royalty may well be a shock to the system.
  
  With all that said, the dynamic here could be interesting. Red Star seems to have developed a strange allergy to scoring goals. For context, they only managed eight goals in ten European matches last season. However, five of those matches finished in 1-0 victories. So on one side, that tell you this is an efficient, hard to beat, side. But efficient and hard to beat doesn’t always translate into “will decimate inferior opposition” insofar as the scoreline’s concerned. While Larne’s clearly inferior, there’s still a chance they might manage to get away from this one with a semi-respectable losing margin.
  
  As such, we should probably expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game that’s controlled by Red Star from start to finish with Larne’s supposed home advantage having little impact on the outcome — they’ve only won three of their last 13 European home games.

• Score prediction: 0-1 for Red Star Belgrade

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Red Star Belgrade Victory

• Odds Range: 1.08-1.17

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.57

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week to take a quick look at this week’s remaining Europa League qualification matches.