Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

If you’re a Real Madrid fan, this last week’s been a blast. Between Aurélien Tchouaméni and Fede Valverde punching on in the locker room (ending in Valverde needing stitches + 10-14 days rest due to “head trauma”) and club president Florentino Pérez going on a conspiracy-fueled rant while announcing elections without announcing elections, it’s been a wild ride.

Meanwhile, Ajax Amsterdam, who are basically Dutch football royalty, might find themselves in a bizarre clash with Harry Styles (of One Direction fame) if they fail to finish in the top four this season.

Oh, and has anyone heard about the Southampton “spygate” scandal?

Anyway, here’s what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This week’s top Premier League odds and predictions. 🦵⚽

• A very special Arsenal achievement in the making. 🏟️✨

• Erling Haaland’s secrets to success. 🔥💪

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⚽ Aston Villa vs Liverpool
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Friday 15 May; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Given the history in this fixture, the BTTS play here looks super solid.

• CXSports says: These two are identically placed on the table, with both showing 17W/8D/11L for a grand total of 59 points. The only thing in it is goal difference, with Liverpool’s +12 putting them ahead of Villa’s rather average looking +4. With that said, while this is definitely close, there is one clear pattern that puts Liverpool slightly ahead — they’re undefeated in this fixture since 2020. However, while Liverpool might have gone undefeated for over 5 years straight, Aston Villa hasn’t lost a single home game against Liverpool since 2022, with all of those matches ending in draws (2-2, 3-3, 1-1). So does that mean more of the same (another draw) here? Yeah, probably — not much has changed in terms of home/away performances with these two. Villa’s still strong at home (11 victories from 18 league matches), and Liverpool’s still a little leaky (1.61 conceded away while their overall season average sits at 1.33). As such, there’s a really good chance that this one ends with both teams scoring, and a reasonably good chance that all leads to another draw.

• Score prediction: 2-2 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.49

Option #2

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.20-3.91

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Man United vs Nottingham Forest
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 17 May; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The head-to-head history (which is arguably irrelevant by now) has left us with a nice discount on United’s market odds.

• CXSports says: With Man United comfortably seated at #3 on the table while Forest finds itself barely outside the relegation zone, it should be rather obvious who should win this one. The only real question is how easily United will take that victory. As for what the table itself suggests here, United’s +15 goal difference vs Forest’s -2, and 63 goals compared with Forest’s 45 tends to suggest things will come easily for United. Particularly playing at home. But, as is often the case, things aren’t so clear-cut if we take in the head-to-head history. Technically, Forest is unbeaten in the last 3 games in this fixture, with results including a United 2-3 Forest result from last season. Of course, that was at a time when it was United who barely had its head above the relegation zone, while Forest was flying (comparatively) high as a stable mid-table presence. Fast forward to now, and it’s clear their performances have diverged entirely, with Forest now the one fighting for survival while United flies high. As such, this one remains firmly in United’s favor (as the table suggests), albeit with the small caveat that maybe, that head-to-head history might count for enough to not let it turn into a total bloodbath.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Man United

Option #1

• Bet: Man United Victory

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.66

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.48-1.67

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Brentford vs Crystal Palace
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 17 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you’re looking for a sure thing, skip this one. Otherwise, the odds on Brentford are decent enough given their edge.

• CXSports says: Based on overall league performance, Brentford appears to hold the edge here. But the difference with Palace’s overall performance isn’t enough to say “clear favorite” with a straight face — Brentford has 51 points and a +3 goal difference, while Palace has 44 points and a -2 goal difference. So there’s a clear difference, but it’s not huge. And it gets even smaller when we consider the head-to-head history which, over the last 5 matches, is dead even, with both teams having 2 victories and one game ending in a draw. Where things do widen up, however, is once we isolate home/away performances. At home, Brentford averages 1.72 goals per game while Palace only manages 1.18 when on the road. Brentford also concedes noticeably less at home, with just 1.06 conceded vs Palace’s 1.35. And as for results, Palace has suffered 8 defeats on the road this season, while Brentford has only been defeated at home 3 times this season (although they’ve got almost as many draws as victories). So ultimately, based on their slight edge in terms of overall season performance, and their slightly larger edge playing at home, this should, in theory, end in a Brentford victory.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 1.59-1.78

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.51-1.70

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Everton vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 17 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The double-chance play on this one looks quite solid given Everton’s modest (but far from dominant) edge.

• CXSports says: Based on the table, there’s not much in this one. Just one point separates these two on the table. And both have identical stats insofar as their goals conceded goes. About the only noticeable difference is Everton’s superior goals scored tally — 46 goals after 36 games vs Everton’s more modest 37 from 36 games. So, will this be enough of a difference for Everton to edge it? The answer is most likely yes. If we look a little deeper into Sunderland’s stats, the cause for that rather average-looking goals scored tally is evident once we look at their away games, where they’ve only managed to score 14 goals all season — well under a goal per game. And if that pattern continues into this game (which it probably will), then there’s an exceptionally good chance Everton should be able to edge this one, even if there’s a non-zero chance Sunderland might manage to hang on for a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Everton

Option #1

• Bet: Everton Victory

• Odds Range: 1.56-1.88

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Everton / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.14-1.25

▶▶ Full Match Details

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

As most of you know by now, Arsenal’s made it to the UEFA Champions League Final, where they’ll face off against none other than PSG. (Psst: It’s on May 30. Keep an eye out — we’ll drop a special edition in 2 weeks from now!)

What some of you might not know is that, if they manage to win that game (and hang on to the EPL title), they’ll achieve one of the rarest doubles in English football — winning the Premier League and the Champions League in the same season.

Of course, while this would be a first for Arsenal, it wouldn’t be a first in the Premier League. In fact, 3 other teams have already achieved the double — Liverpool, Man United, and Man City.

And while we’re on the topic of UCL + EPL doubles, there’s one more bit of trivia you should probably know.

But instead of telling you right away, let’s turn it into a quick trivia quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: Which team(s) have won the Premier League + UCL double on more than one occasion?

• A: Liverpool

• B: Man United

• C: Man City

• D: All of the above.

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Leeds vs Brighton
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 17 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: It’s a long shot, but the chances of a draw here are definitely better than the odds market is currently suggesting.

• CXSports says: There are a lot of reasons to prefer Brighton here, starting with the fact they’ve been the better side over the full season. With 53 points to Leeds’ 44 and a +10 goal difference vs Leeds’ -5, Brighton has an edge here, even if it’s not big enough to be definitive. What might be more telling, however, is the head-to-head history. Here, Brighton has gone undefeated since 2021. In fact, the last time Leeds defeated Brighton was all the way back in 2017, when both found themselves in the 2nd division Championship at the same time. What’s more, the last time these two met earlier in the season, Brighton beat Leeds decisively with a 3-0 clean sheet. Of course, this time around, Brighton no longer has its home advantage. And with Leeds being ‘decent’ while playing at home (they’re not great, but they’re okay) while Brighton is slightly weaker on the road, there’s next to no chance this ends in a similar result. And with Leeds’ current form (undefeated in the last 5) combined with a little confidence boost from having recently secured guaranteed safely, there’s a chance they just might manage to put up a solid fight against Brighton. And while their chances of defeating Brighton here are decidedly slim, there’s no reason they won’t be able to hold this one to a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.00-3.71

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Draw / Brighton)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.38

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Wolves vs Fulham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 17 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Honestly, we’ll probably skip this one. While the Wolves look weak here, they’ve also been volatile enough this season for us to know when to stay clear.

• CXSports says: Fulham are not in great form right now (3 losses in their last 5). And their away record (4W/4D/10L with 16 goals scored and 30 conceded) is weak enough to raise serious questions over their ability to perform here, even if it is against the Wolves. Of course, if there’s one thing we’ve learned about the Wolves this season, it’s that their performance has been bad enough (while being interspersed with a couple of random bursts of results) that they don’t really have any home advantage to speak of. After all, with just 18 points from 36 matches, 25 goals all season, and a massive 66 goals conceded, there is nothing even remotely resembling consistency here (unless you count consistently losing as consistent). And just to make the total lack of any home advantage abundantly clear, at home Wolves have lost 11 of 18 games and conceded 33 goals (precisely half of their season total). So in reality, the only thing that keeps the Wolves hopes alive here is if Fulham’s away attack manages to find itself on the “rounding down” side of their season away goal average, which is just 0.89 goals per game. If that happens, then the Wolves at least have a route to fight for equality here. But if Fulham does manage to score (which is more likely than not), then the Wolves’ 0.69 scoring average suggests they’re going to have a hard time levelling the scoreboard again.

• Score prediction: 0-1 for Fulham

Option #1

• Bet: Fulham Victory

• Odds Range: 1.73-1.96

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.45

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Newcastle vs West Ham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 17 May; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This’ll be a fun one to watch just to see how far one team’s desperation can take them.

• CXSports says: Newcastle’s overall season has been rather mediocre. They’re currently in 13th with 46 points, and are sitting on a -2 goal difference — a goal difference that West Ham contributed to after beating Newcastle 3-1 in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. And if we’re being completely honest here, while West Ham’s season has been a borderline disaster, that very disaster, when combined with the head-to-head record could make them dangerous here. If there’s one thing we can say with confidence, it’s that they will fight hard here — sitting in 18th place, this game is literally a matter of survival. Of course, in much the same way that participation trophies tell us nothing about talent, “effort” is far from being an indicator that can give much certainty. And with West Ham having conceded a massive 62 goals while only scoring 42, Newcastle looks thoroughly brilliant when stacked up against them. As for what that means here — Newcastle clearly deserves the edge and, given a longer format or a best of 5, they’d almost certainly win. But with West Ham’s desperation coming in to play here, we’re not going to rule out the possibility of them repeating their performance from earlier in the season and getting the better of Newcastle.

• Score prediction: 1-2 or 2-1 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Newcastle / West Ham)

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.30

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.48

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Arsenal vs Burnley
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Monday 18 May; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one needs no comment.

• CXSports says: Fun fact. This match pits the League’s best defense (Arsenal with just 26 goals conceded) against the league’s worst defense (Burnley with a massive 73 conceded). And, with Man City well within range of pulling off a last minute title snatch, Arsenal will be relieved to see this fixture on the calendar. After all, with Burnley being the only team that’s come close to performing as bad as the Wolves have this season, there’s a pretty good chance this one turns out to be an almost literal walk in the park for Arsenal. Oh, and just in case you were wondering whether there’s some sort of hidden head-to-head history that might somehow redeem Burnley… there isn’t. Arsenal’s undefeated in this fixture since 2020, and they won the first leg of this fixture earlier in the season by a 2-goal margin while playing on the road. This time, Arsenal’s playing at home, so we see no reason this one won’t be even more decisive.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.03-1.12

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.34-157

▶▶ Full Match Details

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Unless Igor Thiago manages to average at least 2 goals per game in Brentford’s remaining 2 matches this season, Erling Haaland will finish this season as the Premier Leagues most prolific scorer.

FYI: he’s currently sitting on a season tally of 26 goals, and City still has 3 matches remaining.

So what’s the secret to getting so good? Here’s what the man himself has to say.

Long story short — get your priorities straight and you can achieve great things.

Want to learn more about Erling Haaland?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with Masters of Trivia's Soccer Trivia Quizzes today.

PS: Trick question this week. There were actually two correct answers. [A] AND [B] — Both Liverpool and Man United have won the EPL + UCL double in two separate seasons, while City has only managed the feat once. Discover more trivia like this with Masters of Trivia's Soccer Trivia Quizzes.