Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, we’ve got some tough love for Portugal, which we’ll get to in a moment. For now, let’s take a look at what’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• Is Cristiano Ronaldo holding Portugal back? 🇵🇹

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇵🇹 Portugal vs Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

• Group: Group K

• Time: 13:00 ET

• Venue: NRG Stadium

• Location: Houston

🏴 England vs Ghana 🇬🇭

• Group: Group L

• Time: 16:00 ET

• Venue: Gillette Stadium

• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

🇵🇦 Panama vs Croatia 🇭🇷

• Group: Group L

• Time: 19:00 ET

• Venue: BMO Field

• Location: Toronto

🇨🇴 Colombia vs DR Congo 🇨🇩

• Group: Group K

• Time: 22:00 ET

• Venue: Estadio Akron

• Location: Zapopan, Mexico

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

When a team that’s spent most of this century comfortably seated in the top-10 of the FIFA rankings has a hard time against a team that’s currently ranked #46, there’s only really one logical conclusion.

Something must have gone wrong.

And yes, if you guessed that we’re talking about Portugal’s 1-1 draw against Congo last week, you’re absolutely correct. We are talking about that game — a game ESPN aptly described as “a frustrating game for Cristiano Ronaldo, who started and played the full 90 minutes.”

Yes. “Frustrating." That’s one way of putting it.

For those of you who missed that game, it basically looked like this: Portugal hogged possession (75%), made 783 passes, took just seven shots (while DR Congo managed 8 with just 25% of the ball), and only managed one on target. And some of the blame for that performance probably lands on Cristiano Ronaldo’s shoulders since he played the full match and was missing chances.

[ Also, fun fact — that match marks the first time since 1966 that a team with such high possession has been outshot by its opponent in a World Cup. ]

As you can probably imagine, this has set off a bunch of chatter about the once-was star striker and the team Portugal seems to have built around him. The basic criticism here is that Portugal seems to have built their entire strategy around a 41-year-old penalty-box striker that basically contributes very little outside finishing.

And this isn’t a “he messed up one game” phenomenon, either. The DR Congo match marked the 10th consecutive game where Ronaldo failed to score at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros). So there’s definitely a pattern forming.

Of course, to be fair, bumbling around for most of the match while only occasionally contributing to finishing on the odd occasion where the sun, the moon, and the planets align is probably an unfair assessment of what Ronaldo brings to the team. To quote one of this teammates (winger Francisco Conceicao), “Cristiano is an example because of his career, because of the hunger he still has at his age. For ⁠us and ​for the new generation, he’s a role model.” So, in a way, there’s an argument to be made for Ronaldo here — that his presence might still have squad/leadership value.

But if that’s what his real value is, you’ve still got to ask the question — is starting him and leaving him on for the full 90 minutes necessary for his “leadership” to shine? Or is it now hurting Portugal’s attack? (Especially given the talent behind him.)

In the time since Portugal’s embarrassing performance against Congo, Portugal boss Roberto Martinez seems to have come out in support of the former — that Ronaldo’s presence over the full 90 minutes is necessary. According to him, “It makes no sense to get the best goalscorer in world football out in a game that you need goals. For us in moments like this, the experience of Cristiano in the box is important.”

However, there are some questions over just how genuine Martinez’s seemingly avid support for Ronaldo might be. As we speak, rumors are now flying around that Ronaldo might just be too powerful for Martinez. To quote Alan Shearer, who seems to believe Ronaldo's status puts him outside the typical player-coach relationship, “Cristiano is that powerful. If he isn't prepared to understand he cannot play every minute, then it [the Martinez-Ronaldo relationship] won't work.”

At the same time, there also seems to be other rumors flying around that Portugal’s players are under some sort of obligation to pass the ball to Ronaldo. Or, at least, that’s what we’re deducing based on the fact we’re starting to see a bunch of defensive statements come out about how no such obligation exists.

In any case, it’s hard to argue with the facts as they stand.

While there’s no questioning that Ronaldo’s one of the all time greats (he’s scored more goals than anyone else, including 143 at the international level), he’s also increasingly starting to look like he’s well past his prime. Failing to score in 10 straight major tournament games isn’t nothing.

The only question is, will Portugal finally face the facts ahead of today’s game? Or will they spend another 90 minutes kicking the ball around aimlessly while they wait for Ronaldo to clear defenders he may no longer be capable of clearing?

⚽ Portugal vs Uzbekistan
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Tuesday 23 June; 19:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Let’s see what the Portuguese response to the Ronaldo problem is like! (Plus, the odds are pretty decent too.)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Portugal is currently #9 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Uzbekistan is currently #54 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Portugal is undefeated in their last 5 matches, while Uzbekistan has lost 3 of their last 5.

• CXSports says: In theory, this match should be a good reset for Portugal after a disappointing start against DR Congo, with Uzbekistan being an even weaker squad (based on FIFA rankings). Of course, whether this really is a nice clean reset or another embarrassment will depend on a couple of things, the Ronaldo problem being one of them.
  
  More generally speaking, Uzbekistan might turn out to be a tougher opponent than they first seem. While they did loose their opener against Colombia (3-1), the performance was actually quite respectable. They sat deep, competed hard, and even managed to make a second-half comeback (of sorts) when they nabbed their first-ever World Cup goal. Unfortunately, however, try as they might, they were eventually outdone by Colombia’s superior quality.
  
  Of course, while the whole “they’ve got more quality” thing should apply to Portugal here, the big question that remains is what are they going to do with that quality? If the entire strategy here ends up being another “let’s poke the ball around and hope we can kick it cleanly to Ronaldo” performance, this match could end up being much, much closer than it has any right to be.
  
  That means, we have two possible outcomes here.
  
  The first is the obvious one — the ranking gap, squad depth and technical quality means Portugal should win this one. But if Martinez starts Ronaldo then sits idly by as the Portuguese attack ossify around him, then there’s a very real path for another humiliating draw.
  
  In reality, the latter case is still unlikely. However, if we wanted to play this one safe we wouldn’t rule it out entirely.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Portugal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Portugal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.22

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Portugal / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.04

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. Tomorrow we’ll be back with one of the busiest days on the 2026 World Cup calendar as we prepare to watch Switzerland vs Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar, Scotland vs Brazil, Morocco vs Haiti, Czechia vs Mexico, and South Africa vs South Korea.

Until then, we hope you enjoy the rest of today’s World Cup action.