Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Africa’s Cup of Nations qualification rounds get underway. And with it, we’ve got some wonderfully one-sided games coming up that we can’t wait to see. So let’s get right into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s full Cup of Nations qualifications match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this week’s Cup of Nations games. ✅

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Over the coming days, we’ve got a nice series of matches coming up in Round 1 of the Cup of Nations qualifications. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🌍 Cup of Nations Qualifications (Round 1)

Thursday 24 September

• 15:00 — Namibia vs Congo

• 18:00 — DR Congo vs Equatorial Guinea

• 18:00 — Libya vs Botswana

• 18:00 — Mauritania vs Central African Republic

• 21:00 — Cameroon vs Comoros

• 21:00 — Ivory Coast vs Ghana

• 21:00 — Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe

• 21:00 — Tunisia vs Uganda

Friday 25 September

• 15:00 — Senegal vs Mozambique

• 15:00 — Tanzania vs Guinea Bissau

• 17:00 — Niger vs Lesotho

• 18:00 — Gambia vs Somalia

• 18:00 — Malawi vs South Sudan

• 18:00 — Nigeria vs Madagascar

• 18:00 — Rwanda vs Liberia

• 18:00 — Sudan vs Ethiopia

• 18:00 — Togo vs Burundi

• 21:00 — Algeria vs Zambia

• 21:00 — Burkina Faso vs Benin

• 21:00 — Egypt vs Angola

• 21:00 — Mali vs Cape Verde

• 21:00 — Morocco vs Gabon

Saturday 26 September

• 15:00 — Kenya vs Eritrea

• 15:00 — South Africa vs Republic of Guinea

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Senegal vs Mozambique
🏟️ African Cup of Nations Qualifications (Round 1)
📅 Friday 25 September; 15:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Mozambique has 0 clean sheets and 14 goals conceded in their last 6 matches (2.33 per game).

  • Mozambique only scored in 3 of their last 6 games, and only scored 5  at an average of 0.83 per game.

  • Senegal: scored in 5 of their last 6 matches at an average of 2.0 goals per game against mostly World Cup opposition.

• CXSports says: Let’s just start with the obvious — Senegal will probably win this. Mozambique have lost their last four matches while only scoring 2 goals against 11 conceded. And two of those defeats were June friendlies against Oman (4-1) and Indonesia (1-0), which is hardly the sort of competition that’s usually able to keep their opponents on their toes. And, if we expand out slightly to their last six games, Mozambique’s conceded 14 and kept zero clean sheets. And now, that defence has to face off against a Senegal side that’s not only scored 12 goals in its own last six matches, but done so against the likes of France, Norway, Belgium, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. And let’s not forget that Mozambique sits 103rd in the world rankings while Senegal’s 18th.
  
  So really, the only question hanging over this game’s the one about the winning margin.
  
  On the plus side for Mozambique, Senegal has only won one of its last six games — a 5-0 rout of an Iraq team that was down to ten men after 13 minutes. And, they also conceded 12 goals — three in each of their four defeats. So, based on the numbers alone, that is a leaky team. But that’s probably about the point where the positives for Mozambique ends, because once we remember the context — that Senegal lost to World Cup sides, three of them at the World Cup itself — that string of leaky loose doesn’t quite look so bad. Especially when we remember that Mozambique’s losses have all come to teams several levels lower (along with far fewer goals scored in response).
  
  After that, the only other positive sign for Mozambique is Senegal’s upheaval at the moment — they’re under a relatively new head coach, Patrick Vieira, a former France midfielder who’s now managing a national team for the first time. What’s more, his squad trained together for the first time on Tuesday, while the long-time first-choice goalkeeper, Edouard Mendy, retired this month.
  
  As such, this one could be a tighter, scrappier game than the numbers alone might suggest. However, that’s not to say it won’t still be something resembling a modest demolition.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Senegal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Senegal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.23

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.48

⚽ Gambia vs Somalia
🏟️ African Cup of Nations Qualifications (Round 1)
📅 Friday 25 September; 18:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Somalia’s only scored two goals in the last year, and both came in a friendly game against Bahrain.

  • Somalia’s kept 3 straight clean sheets, but the opposition was weak (Mauritius twice and Oman) and the final score was 0-0 in each of those.

  • Gambia’s scored in all of their last 6 matches (16 goals). Removing the 7-0 blowout against Seychelles, Gambia’s recent scoring rate is still a respectable 1.8 goals per game.

• CXSports says: We’re going to put this as delicately as we possibly can — Somalia cannot score, and that’s probably going to be what decides this match. And the facts here are simple. Take their World Cup qualifiers, for instance — they played six qualifiers against sides at roughly Somalia’s level (from Guinea to Mozambique) and scored in none of them. And that patterns not limited to World Cup qualifiers. In fact, their only two goals in the last twelve months came in a recent friendly in Bahrain, which means their last six matches in all competitions resulted in an average of 0.33 goals per game (and a much lower average if we look at the whole year instead). Meanwhile, Gambia’s scored in each of its last six games. And they averaged 2.7 goals per game over their full World Cup qualifying campaign.
  
  Now, of course, if we’re going to talk about Gambia’s scoring prowess, then we probably have to address Somalia’s one saving grace here — the three straight clean sheets in their last three games. But look at the scoreline and the opposition in each of those games. They faced off against Mauritius twice and Oman once, and each one ended in stalemated 0-0 draws. So, again, Somalia cannot score. And that’s going to be a problem against a side that’s not only consistently scoring, but doing so at a fairly decent rate. Indeed, even if we remove the 7-0 blowout against Seychelles, Gambia’s recent scoring rate is still 1.8 goals per game.
  
  As such, about the only real worry for Gambia here comes from their own side. Or, more precisely, the lack of certain members from that side, which is currently missing Yankuba Minteh (7 international goals, out with an injury) and Musa Barrow (14 goals, left out of the squad). They also haven’t played in several months (last game in May), although that same disclaimer applies even more strongly to Somalia (last game in March).
  
  So what shoudl we expect here (aside from Somalia not scoring)? Well, we expect to see Gambia maybe struggle a little for the first half hour as it finds its feet again against a defence that’s likely going to consist of ten men sitting deep. However, given that they’ve scored in every match they’ve played for over a year, they probably will break through eventually. And probably on more than one occasion.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Gambia

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Gambia Victory

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.21

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.50

⚽ Morocco vs Gabon
🏟️ African Cup of Nations Qualifications (Round 1)
📅 Friday 25 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • In their last three home games this year, Morocco scored 10 goals and conceded just 1 goal (and that 1 goal only came in extra time).

  • Gabon are winless in 6 (0W/1D/5L) and have conceded 16 goals in total, with goals conceded in every match.

  • Morocco won the last two head-to-heads 4-1 and 5-1 (September and November 2024).

• CXSports says: Over their last six matches, Morocco managed 3W/2D/1L. And that was at the World Cup (hardly a friendly throwaway game) where they scored 10 while conceding 6 against the likes of Brazil, the Netherlands, and France. Meanwhile, Gabon’s last six has only delivered a single draw (in a friendly against Trinidad and Tobago that went to penalties) while losing five, all while conceding 16 goals. And unlike Morocco, who’s been facing off against some of the world’s elite, Gabon’s losses came against teams like Mozambique and Uzbekistan, while Morocco’s only defeat came against France.
  
  And things start looking even worse for Gabon once we look back a little further than Morocco’s World Cup performance. In fact, Morocco’s last three home games produced 10 goals scored. About the only saving grace here for Gabon is that 9 of those 10 goals scored came in two friendlies against Burundi and Madagascar. But, even if we stick to strictly more competitive games, their last four home games (all knockout matches at the continental championship in January) Morocco still scored 7 while conceding just 1 (while delivering 3 victories and a single draw). Which more or less points to a team that, when playing at home at home with something at stake, strangles opponents whilst scoring opportunistically.
  
  Meanwhile, Gabon’s arriving in a bit of a mess. Their coach, Sebastien Migne, is leading the team in his first competitive match here. And the team is without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, their veteran striker who’s scored 40 international goals and is freshly retired after last winter’s tournament. And there’s also the small fact that Gabon’s domestic league isn’t running, so they’ll be working with players predominantly based abroad who are being called home and assembled haphazardly for this game.
  
  Finally, we also have the last two head-to-heads in this fixture which look equally damning for Gabon — 4-1 and 5-1 victories for Morocco. Although, both were in 2024, so treat those with a grain of salt.
  
  As such, the setup we have here points very clearly towards a neat victory for Morocco with the only real question being how much September rust will factor into this (this is Morocco’s first game in eleven weeks). So maybe expect a slow first half followed by a strong finish.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Morocco

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Morocco Victory

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.24

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.52

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week with a sneak peek at some of the more under-the-radar football action that’s scheduled for this weekend.

Until then, enjoy the football.