Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a massive week ahead of us this week as the Cup of Nations and UEFA Nations League pile on the matches. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s Nations League + Cup of Nations round 2 match schedules. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from the bunch (including 2 sure things). ✅

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This week we’ve got a massive schedule of matches across round 2 in both the Cup of Nations and UEFA Nations League tournaments, with even more UEFA NL matches coming up in round 3 later this week, which we’ll cover in our next issue. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🇪🇺 UEFA Nations League

Monday 28 September

• 18:00 — Armenia vs Montenegro

• 18:00 — Georgia vs Ukraine

• 18:00 — Latvia vs Cyprus

• 20:45 — Belgium vs France

• 20:45 — Northern Ireland vs Hungary

• 20:45 — Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

• 20:45 — Sweden vs Poland

• 20:45 — Turkey vs Italy

Tuesday 29 September

• 18:00 — Finland vs Belarus

• 18:00 — Moldova vs Faroe Islands

• 20:45 — Bulgaria vs Estonia

• 20:45 — Czech Republic vs England

• 20:45 — Luxembourg vs Iceland

• 20:45 — San Marino vs Albania

• 20:45 — Scotland vs Switzerland

• 20:45 — Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

• 20:45 — Slovenia vs North Macedonia

• 20:45 — Spain vs Croatia

🌍 African Cup of Nations

Monday 28 September

• 18:00 — Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso

• 18:00 — Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone

• 18:00 — Zimbabwe vs DR Congo

• 21:00 — Botswana vs Tunisia

Tuesday 29 September

• 13:00 — Comoros vs Namibia

• 15:00 — Burundi vs Algeria

• 15:00 — Ethiopia vs Senegal

• 15:00 — Lesotho vs Morocco

• 15:00 — Madagascar vs Tanzania

• 15:00 — Mozambique vs Sudan

• 15:00 — South Sudan vs Egypt

• 18:00 — Ghana vs Gambia

• 18:00 — Guinea Bissau vs Nigeria

• 18:00 — Uganda vs Libya

• 18:00 — Zambia vs Togo

• 21:00 — Benin vs Mauritania

• 21:00 — Congo vs Cameroon

• 21:00 — Gabon vs Niger

• 21:00 — Liberia vs Mali

• 21:00 — Somalia vs Ivory Coast

Wednesday 30 September

• 18:00 — Eritrea vs South Africa

Thursday 01 October

• 18:00 — Republic of Guinea vs Kenya

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ San Marino vs Albania
🏟️ UEFA Nations League
📅 Tuesday 29 September; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • San Marino averaged 0.25 goals and 4.88 goals conceded per game in their World Cup qualifying campaign.

  • The head-to-head history has Albania at 4 wins from 4 with an aggregate scoreline of San Marino 0-13 Albania.

  • At home, San Marino lost 0-4 and 0-7 to their two stronger visitors (Cyprus and Finland), but conceded no more than two goals against weaker ones (Faroe Islands, Andorra, Bangladesh).

  • In its last 15 games, San Marino has 14 losses and a single draw.

• CXSports says: Albania’s not the first name that comes to mind when someone says something like “elite footballing nation.” However, for the purposes of this fixture, they basically are — San Marino’s so out of its depth here that the only real thing we have to talk about here is the margin by which Albania will win.
  
  To give a little context, San Marino lost all eight of their World Cup qualifiers in a campaign where they only scored 2 goals while conceding 39 (0.25 goals scored and 4.88 conceded per game) with no clean sheets at all. And their first game in this Nations League group was even worse — They lost 7-0 at home to Finland and created chances worth 0.04 expected goals (basically one extremely hopeful shot). They also lost a midfielder to a red card in that game, and now he’s suspended here.
  
  Then, there’s also the head-to-head history here — San Marino’s never scored a goal against Albania and has lost every single one of the 4 matches they’ve played in this fixture. In fact, they didn’t just lose, they’ve been consistently thrashed, including a San Marino 0-5 Albania walloping the last time they met.
  
  Now, of course, that head-to-head history is getting a little old by now — that last game was about five years ago under a different coach. And, the Albania of 2026 does seem to have a real problem scoring goals — they have just 3 goals in their last 6 matches and drew blanks in 4 of them. And, looking a little further back, they only scored 7 across their 8 World Cup qualifying games. But that doesn’t necessarily mean this is going to be a marginal 0-1 victory for Albania. While they do struggle to score, it’s hard to see how those struggles carry over into a game against an opponent that leaks as heavily as San Marino.
  
  As such, we see a rather low probability of this one ending in a 5-goal rout like the last head-to-head, but still see a good chance of Albania taking this by multiple goals whilst also delivering a clean sheet.

• Score prediction: 0-3 for Albania

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Albania Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.07

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.26

⚽ Spain vs Croatia
🏟️ UEFA Nations League
📅 Tuesday 29 September; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Both sides have played England and Portugal in recent matches. Spain beat England 3-2 and Portugal 1-0; Croatia lost 4-2 to England and 2-1 to Portugal.

  • In their last 5, Spain conceded 0.5 goals per game and kept 4 clean sheets. Croatia conceded 1.5 per game and kept one clean sheet.

  • Croatia usually manage to find a goal, and has scored in all six of their last six matches. However, Spain has only conceded in 2 of their last 6.

• CXSports says: For a fixture in which the last head-to-head was a little over 2 years ago, this one has an extremely clean setup from recent months that tells us the way it’s likely to go. Specifically, both teams have faced England and Portugal in the last three months. Spain won both of its matches — it beat England 3-2 last Saturday and Portugal 1-0 at the World Cup in July. Meanwhile, Croatia lost 4-2 to England and 2-1 to Portugal in that same World Cup.
  
  Now, of course, that could all just be a giant coincidence. However, beyond that, Spain still looks better. For starters, they’re unbeaten in 39 matches since March 2024 with 30 wins and 9 draws. Croatia, on the other hand, has been defeated twice in its last 5 matches alone. And, while Croatia did indeed win the other 3 matches here, those wins don’re really count for much here — they were earned against much softer opponents (Panama, Ghana and a Czechia).
  
  With that said, Spain likely won’t be as flawless here as the setup so far might make out. For starters, they’re missing three key defenders from this squad, including Pedro Porro, their first-choice right-back. Meanwhile, Croatia’s managed to score in each of their last six matches, including two against England and one against Portugal. So the chances of a clean sheet here are probably quite slim, even if Spain has only conceded 0.5 goals per game across its last six.
  
  That’s not to say Spain doesn’t remain the clear favorite here by quite a large margin — while Croatia will probably score, there’s no getting around the fact that Spain’s averaged 2.0 per game in its recent matches while Croatia’s conceded 1.5 per game in their last six. So while Croatia probably will score once, Spain will almost definitely score at least twice. As such, the prediction here is for a victory for Spain.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Spain

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Spain Victory

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.37

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.92-2.26

⚽ Somalia vs Ivory Coast
🏟️ African Cup of Nations
📅 Tuesday 29 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Somalia only scored 4 goals in their last 13 World Cup and AFCON qualifiers (0.31 per game) and failed to score in 9 of those 13 games.

  • Ivory Coast have scored in all 6 of their matches since June (1.5 goals per game), which includes games against France, Germany and Norway.

  • Somalia's “home” games are at neutral venues with no home crowd, so the usually home advantage doesn't apply here.

• CXSports says: Let’s start by stating the obvious out loud — Somalia has basically no hopes here. For starters, they scored just 4 goals in their last 13 World Cup and AFCON qualifiers at an average of 0.31 per game, while failing to score in 9 of those games. Ivory Coast, on the other hand, has scored in all six of their matches since June while averaging 1.5 goals per game, against tough competition that included France, Germany and Norway. Or, to put that another way, we have a team that can't even score against Mauritius (Somalia) going up against a team that scores regularly against the world’s elite (Ivory Coast). Oh, and let’s not forget that Ivory Coast’s defence only conceded 0.83 goals per game against World Cup opposition this summer, meaning Somalia’s usual next-to-no-hope-of-scoring chances are basically no-hope-at-all in this match.
  
  So, given that, the only thing we really need to worry about here is the size of the basically-guaranteed Ivory Coast win. And here, Ivory Coast's scoring against weaker sides probably gives us a bit of a tell. That is, Ivory Coast tends to play ‘efficiently’ rather than ‘overwhelmingly’ against weaker opposition — just enough to get the job done. For instance, it “only” delivered a 2-0 against Curacao at the World Cup, and a 2-0 against Ghana last week.
  
  Given that, we expect this to be a very, very comfortable victory for Ivory Coast, even if we don’t get to see just how comfortable it was in the final scoreline, which we expect might be modest.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Ivory Coast

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Ivory Coast Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.05

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.19-1.50

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back later in the week with plenty more, including another batch of UEFA Nations League games as round 3 gets underway.

Until then, enjoy the football.