Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Between Jeremy Doku’s “glitch in the matrix” moment and Senegal losing its Cup of Nations title 2 months after winning it, and the much anticipated Spain vs Argentina “Finalissima” being cancelled because Argentina wanted to play “hard to get”, it sure has been a weird week in football. And speaking of Argentina, let’s not forget what else took place this week.

After beating long-term rivals Newells 2-0, Rosario fans decided the best way to celebrate was to throw sex dolls dressed in Newell's kit onto the field… much to the bewilderment of any children watching.

On a slightly more heartwarming note, Pep Guardiola seems to have found the perfect response to the “Antonio Rüdiger problem”, blowing the controversial German defender a kiss after a tense moment this week.

Now for what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This week’s best Premier League odds. 🦵⚽

• A little Rosario Central trivia. 🏟️✨

• A Pep quote on the importance of forgiveness. 🔥💪

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⚽ Bournemouth vs Man United
🏟️ English Premier League
Friday 20 March; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The probability of a draw in this game is much higher than the odds market seems to suggest. That makes this one fantastic value.

• CXSports says: This game’s a tale of two conflicting datasets. On one hand, we’ve got United’s superior league performance — 1.8 goals scored per game and 1.37 conceded vs Bournemouth’s 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded. But, on the other hand, you’ve got Bournemouth’s superiority in this fixture — over the last 5 league games, Bournemouth has 2W, and 3D. Now throw into that the fact that Bournemouth’s currently on a 10-game unbeaten streak in the league (albeit, with a majority of those games ending in draws), and the home ground advantage, and suddenly United’s not looking quite so superior. In fact, on the balance of probabilities here, there’s a very good chance this one ends in a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-2 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.20-3.90

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.42-1.59

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽Brighton vs Liverpool
🏟️English Premier League
Saturday 21 March; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s a nice BTTS play here with reasonably high chances of hitting.

• CXSports says: If there’s one stat worth paying attention to here, it’s the recent head-to-head history between these two. In the last two head-to-heads, Liverpool beat Brighton 3-0 (FA Cup) and 2-0 (EPL). Granted, both of these had Liverpool playing at home, but the fact Brighton failed to score in either is still telling. We can also see a similar edge in broader EPL statistics, where Liverpool has managed to average 1.63 goals per game while Brighton’s only averaging 1.30. Now, in this particular game, Brighton will be enjoying the home advantage — something they used to defeat Liverpool 3-2 last time these two played at Falmer. But notice the tighter 1-goal margin here — the same margin Liverpool managed in their 2-1 victory prior to this game. Since then, Liverpool has delivered 2 back-to-back victories with 2+ goal margins. That gives us some indication of where each side’s relative performance is likely to land.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.90-2.27

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.38-1.56

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽Fulham vs Burnley
🏟️English Premier League
Saturday 21 March; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s got a nice clear favorite with some reasonable value odds.

• CXSports says: This is a nice clean one — Fulham has a clear edge here, both in its home advantage, and its overall superior stats. For its part, Burnley is in struggle town — 2nd-last in the league, 1.93 goals conceded per game and just 1.07 scored. Fulham, on the other hand, while not exactly flying high, is surviving in the mid-table with a reasonably balanced mix of results, and much tighter scoring stats of 1.33 scored per game against 1.43 conceded. And if that wasn’t enough, the last time these two met on Burnley’s home turf, Fulham still managed to walk away with the victory. Expect the same here.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Burnley

Option #1

• Bet: Burnley Victory

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.61

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

Odds Range: 1.17-1.28

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽Everton vs Chelsea
🏟️English Premier League
Saturday 21 March; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This is another one of those games where the odds market says one thing, but the stats say there’s a high probability of another. Great value here.

• CXSports says: This is one of those games where the stats seem to say “Chelsea”, but the reality on the ground says “not so fast”. First, let’s start with the obvious — both Chelsea and Everton are conceding at a rate of 1.17 goals per game. Where they diverge, however, is in scoring — Chelsea’s netting an average of 1.77 per game while Everton’s only managing 1.13. Head-to-head, Chelsea also looks superior — in the last five, they’ve got 3W, 1D, 1L. So what gives Everton a chance here? Recent form. Chelsea just got smashed in the UCL, losing 3-0 to PSG in an 8-2 aggregate collapse, and there’s a chance that sort of performance doesn’t stay in Paris. Everton’s also shown slightly superior results in recent league games compared with Chelsea which, when added to their home advantage, could be enough to see this one end in a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.10-3.75

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

Odds Range: 1.48-1.68

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

We don’t cover much Argentinian football around here. (Maybe we should? Reply to this email if you want to see more of it.)

So this week, we thought we’d take a brief interlude to look at one of the great rivalries in Argentinian football — the Rosario Central vs Newell’s Old Boys derby.

For those who are unfamiliar, both teams come from Rosario. And both were founded around the same time (Newell’s in 1903, Central in 1889).

So why the need for two teams from Rosario?

Rosario Central was the working-class team, with ties to railway workers. Newell’s Old Boys, on the other hand, has a more middle-class, “educated” background — it was founded by former students of an English private school based in Rosario.

And that’s how you got the birth of a derby.

Now let’s see if you know what the derby’s called with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: The derby between Rosario Central and Newell’s Old Boys is called.

• A: Clásico Rosarino

• B: Superclásico

• C: Clásico del Sur

• D: Clásico del Interior

Think you know the answer?

Test yourself with the Rosario Central Trivia Quiz.

Or read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Leeds vs Brentford
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 21 March; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one requires a big leap of faith against the odds. But, with the stats pointing in that direction, that leap might just be worth it.

• CXSports says: The last time these two met on Brentford’s home turf, Leeds managed to keep their opponents to a draw. So now they’ve got the home advantage, it’s tempting to think there’s a good chance they can go one better this time. And maybe they might. Unfortunately, the stats seem to point the other way — Brentford’s ability to score more (1.53 per game vs 1.23 for Leeds) and concede less (1.40 per game vs 1.60 for Leeds) creates an undeniable edge here. Perhaps not enough to threaten a massive result here, but certainly enough to edge out a slim victory.

• Score prediction: 0-1 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 2.30-2.92

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

Odds Range: 1.22-1.38

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Newcastle vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 22 March; 13:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s some nice odds on Newcastle here given their healthy edge on all fronts.

• CXSports says: At first glance, this one looks as though it should be tight. But once you start to compare, a consistent edge for Newcastle emerges. For starters, there’s overall scoring stats — Newcastle scores and concedes at a rate of 1.43 goals per game, while Sunderland has a negative goal difference after averaging 1.00 scored per game against 1.17 conceded. The same edge appears in recent results, too — Newcastle has 3W and 3L in their last 6, while Sunderland has 1W, 1D, and 4L. Finally, throw in the home advantage that will likely be accentuated thanks to the derby energy here, and Newcastle starts looking like a reasonably solid favorite.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Newcastle

Option #1

• Bet: Newcastle Victory

• Odds Range: 1.48-1.72

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

Odds Range: 1.14-1.29

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Aston Villa vs West Ham
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 22 March; 15:15 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The odds aren’t huge, but the double chance on this one might just be the surest thing we’ve got this week.

• CXSports says: Seated just inside the relegation zone West Ham finds itself in a desperate position right now. And, arguably, they’re responding well to that pressure — in their last 6 games, they’ve managed 2W, 3D, and just 1L. Now contrast that with Villa, which finds itself in #4 on the table, albeit with a bit of a rough patch behind it, with three consecutive losses leading into this one. Fortunately for Villa, statistical superiority is still on their side — they score slightly more than West Ham (1.33 vs 1.20 per game) while conceding significantly less (1.23 vs 1.83 per game). Further, Villa is currently on a 7-game undefeated streak in this fixture, with the last West Ham victory coming all the way back in 2022. As such, this one looks like it should end in a Villa victory, although we’re not ruling out the possibility of West Ham keeping this one to a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Aston Villa or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Aston Villa / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.32

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

Odds Range: 1.46-1.67

▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

⚽ Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 22 March; 15:15 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A nice double chance here that looks exceptionally solid given these two haven’t played to a draw since 2005.

• CXSports says: This game is the very definition of “too close to call.” These two are separated by 1 point on the table, both have extended winless stretches, and both are showing deep structural flaws they’ve failed to address all season. For Tottenham, that flaw is an inability to score, but an inability to keep games under control, with many of their matches ending over 2.5 goals on aggregate while averaging around 1.4-1.5 goals per game at home. For Forest, their problem is the opposite — while they manage to create chances, they struggle to convert. So much so that they’re currently averaging less than a goal per game (0.93). And as for the head-to-head data, the last 6 games have resulted in 3 victories for each side. With that said, Forest has taken the last 3 in a row, although that edge is likely neutralized due to them being on the road here. In short, this one’s a case of “pick your poison” — it could easily go either way. The only thing we can say with much confidence is that these two don’t like playing for equality — the last time we saw a draw in this fixture was more than 20 years ago, all the way back in 2005.

• Score prediction: 2-1 or 1-2 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Tottenham / Forest)

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.35

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.72
  
  ▶▶Full Match Details: [Read More]

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Pep Guardiola sure knows a thing or two about forgiveness.

Not only did he try to kiss and makeup with Antonio Rüdiger this week, but he’s also on the record talking about it in the past.

So what’s the moral of the story?

The important thing isn’t achieving perfect results each and every time.

Rather, the important thing is to give it your all.

After all, if you can’t even try, then how else are the results going to come?

Want to learn more about Pep Guardiola?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Pep Guardiola Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [A] — The Rosario-Newells derby is known as the Clásico Rosarino. Discover more trivia like this with the Rosario Central Trivia Quiz.