Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This weekend, the English League Cup gets underway with the first preliminary game set to kick off tomorrow. But more on that in a minute. First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The complete English League Cup match schedule for the next week. 🗓️

• Our top three League Cup picks for the week. ✅

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Between now and next Thursday, we’ve got 3 League Cup matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

01 Aug Saturday – Playoffs Preliminary Round

• 16:00 — Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale AFC

03 Aug Monday – Playoffs Preliminary Round

• 20:30 — York City vs Crawley Town

06 Aug Thursday – Playoffs Round 1

• 20:45 — Bristol City vs Walsall

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale AFC
🏟️ English League Cup
📅 Saturday 01 August; 16:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Rochdale scored 1.91 and conceded 0.89 per game, but in the National League (fifth tier), while Tranmere’s 1.17 scored and 1.72 conceded came in League Two (fourth tier).

  • The last two league meetings between these two were both draws, although their most recent head-to-head was a 2023 friendly that finished in Rochdale’s favor.

  • Rochdale must navigate this game mid-transition after having lost promotion-winning boss Jimmy McNulty.

• CXSports says: The cleanest read of this game is that Rochdale are an in-form form team (106 points, promotion, 1.91 goals a game) arriving at the home of a side that finished 21st in it league and only just clung to its League Two place by two points while scoring a just 1.17 per game. But that story might be a little too neat.
  
  For starters, Rochdale's numbers were built in the National League — the fifth tier of English football — while Tranmere's were ground out in the fourth-tier League Two. And history shows that fifth-to-fourth-tier promotion has often been unkind to promoted squads who assume their previous year’s goal rate carries over into the level above.
  
  There should also be similar reserves around Rochdale’s 0.89 concession rate, too. However, this time those reservations come with one extra caveat — Tranmere just spent the summer upgrading their squad, starting with Darrell Clarke, who arrives with close to 700 games and five promotions on his CV. Then there was also Jordan Davies from Wrexham and Tom Ince from Watford — a real set of coups for this level. Particularly Ince, who’s spent most of his career several divisions higher.
  
  Rochdale’s pre-season has also shown a real change of pace — a 2-0 win over Blackpool and a 3-0 over a strong PFA XI (although they did make a 3-1 stumble against Altrincham). Meanwhile, Rochdale’s working through the sort of upheaval that tends to bite early-season — their promotion-winning manager, Jimmy McNulty, has left for Stockport. As such, the group arrives mid-transition against a settled, freshly-recruited host.
  
  As such, we’re going to lean towards a Rochdale victory. Ultimately, on the balance of stability and squad quality, the established fourth-tier side with the deeper dugout and the hot new signings is probably better set up for a 90-minute knockout than than the fifth-tier wunderkid that finds itself mid-transition.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Rochdale AFC

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Rochdale AFC Victory

• Odds Range: 2.16-2.39

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.78

⚽ York City vs Crawley Town
🏟️ English League Cup
📅 Monday 03 August; 20:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • York arrive as National League champions moving up a division while Crawley arrives in a nosedive — they finished 22nd-place League Two after having been relegated from League One the season before.

  • York’s Ollie Pearce scored 34 league goals last season while Crawley has no equivalent.

  • York boss, Scott Lindsey, faces the club that sacked him in his first game as York’s boss after they appointed him just 19 days before the season.

• CXSports says: It’s tempting to apply the old “higher division club faces lower division club” logic to this game. But while it’s true that Crawley did play a division higher than York last season, they also spent that season getting relegated out of it. York, by contrast, arrives as the National League champion, carried by a striker who put away a massive 34 league goals (Ollie Pearce). In other words, one of these clubs freefall while the other’s on the way up.
  
  There’s also the subplot that none of the stats capture. Scott Lindsey’s leading York into his first competitive outing here, just 19 days into the job, against Crawley — the club that sacked him in March after a 10-match winless run. So on one hand, there’s good reason to believe that a manager with that specific trajectory might not be arriving at the top of his game. But, on the other hand, we can’t ignore the fact that Crawley’s arriving with a score to settle, in front of a home crowd celebrating York’s first competitive night back in the Football League. Particularly when we consider that Crawley arrive with a very green Colin Kazim-Richards at the helm (his first senior management role), mid-rebuild, and having travelled over 250 miles north for a Monday-night season-opener.
  
  As such, we believe that a champion's momentum, a 34-goal striker, a home advantage on a landmark night, and a manager with a point to prove against his old employers could very add up to a York City victory here.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for York City

Bet Option #1

• Bet: York City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.68

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.75

⚽ Bristol City vs Walsall
🏟️ English League Cup
📅 Thursday 06 August; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • This is a Championship vs League Two fixture, with Bristol City living two tiers above Walsall.

  • Walsall arrive with four defeats in their last five capping a season that collapsed from top-of-the-table at Christmas to 13th, with the manager sacked in between.

  • Across their last ten head-to-heads, Bristol City won seven while Walsall only managed two (with one draw).

• CXSports says: This is the first properly clean League fixture — a Championship side hosting a League Two side (two divisions between them) at the Championship side’s home ground. And it's a gap that last season’s league numbers confirm — there’s no diverging trajectories here. City had a flat, 12th-place Championship campaign while Walsall finished 13th-place.
  
  Interestingly, once you add form into the equation, the gap between these two only gets bigger — Walsall arrive fresh off the back of four defeats in their last five games at the tail end of a season that went from top of League Two at Christmas into a 13th-place slump.
  
  Of course, for all the certainty around Bristol City that the above might imply, it’s probably worth tempering expectations — these early-August ties are usually an odd mix of being both the first competitive games, while also being half friendly by nature. And we’ve also got to contend with the fact that both clubs are mid-rebuild under new-ish management (Michael Skubala taking charge of Bristol City and a fresh regime at Walsall after Sadler’s exit). So that mix of new managers, rusty legs, and a not-entirely-serious competitive climate might introduce a little unpredictability.
  
  With that said, with a two-division quality gap, a home advantage, superior pre-season preparation against the likes of Newcastle, and an out-of-form opponent missing its loan striker (Daniel Kanu), it's hard to see how Bristol City is going to be challenged here. As such, we’re tipping Bristol City to take this with a tidy clean sheet.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Bristol City

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bristol City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.44

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.67-2.00

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. As always, we’ll be back next with plenty more football action.

Until then, let’s hope that the next World Cup doesn’t go up in smoke just weeks after the last one finished.