Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, round 1 of the Europa League get underway. And that’s exactly what we’re looking at today. So let’s get into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s full Europa League match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three Europa League picks for this week. ✅

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This week, we’ve got 18 upcoming Europa League matches. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Wednesday 16 September

• 18:45 — AC Omonia vs Celta Vigo

• 18:45 — Ararat Armenia vs Sparta Prague

• 21:00 — AC Milan vs Benfica

• 21:00 — Anderlecht vs Lyon

• 21:00 — Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje

• 21:00 — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb

• 21:00 — Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

• 21:00 — Sturm Graz vs Rennes

• 21:00 — Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

Thursday 17 September

• 18:45 — Levski vs Red Bull Salzburg

• 18:45 — OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim

• 21:00 — Besiktas vs Marseille

• 21:00 — Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC

• 21:00 — Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan

• 21:00 — Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen

• 21:00 — Lillestrom vs Uniao Torreense

• 21:00 — Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth

• 21:00 — Viktoria Plzen vs Royal Union Saint-Gilloise

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Wednesday 16 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Leverkusen are currently averaging 3.00 goals scored per game, while Celje’s conceded in five of their six European matches this season.

  • Celje has only won one of their last six European matches and four of their last six games across all competitions ended in defeat.

  • Leverkusen has lost just two of their last 19 European home matches.

• CXSports says: Leverkusen’s a bit of an odd one right now. While their four competitive games since their new coach took over have produced mostly positive results — one loss, a couple of 4-0 victories, and a draw at Augsburg with 12 goals scored across those games (3.00 per game on average — there’s a “problem” not visible in the results. Take the Augsburg draw, for instance, which finished 2-2. In that game, Leverkusen took thirty shots (more than any team’s managed in a single Bundesliga match this season). Suddenly, that big goal average looks a little less like a team with a well tuned attack, and more like one that’s got a broken conversion rate. So, in a way, there’s an argument to be made here that any team paying attention to that could cause troubles for Leverkusen.
  
  Of course, that’s not likely to matter here. While Celje may be an okay team at home (they were Slovenian champions after all), on the European stage they’ve conceded in five of their last six games, and only won a single one of those games. Now compare that with Leverkusen — a side that’s only lost two of its last 19 European matches at home. Framed like that, Celje looks more like a team that’s going to have a hard time simply hanging on, much less attempting to exploit Leverkusen’s conversion rate problem.
  
  With that said, for all of its concessions and losses, Celje aren’t a total lost cause. They do have some history at the European level, and it’s not all disastrous (even if it’s not great). In the past, they’ve gone to the Champions League play-off round and lost narrowly (2-3 on aggregate) to Slovan Bratislava. And that was only after extra time. And in 2024-25 they reached a Conference League quarter-final only to lose narrowly 3-4 to Fiorentina. And, while they might have conceded in five of their 6 European matches this season, they have also scored in all six of those games while posting a goal average of 1.67 goals per game. So Celje does look perfectly capable of sitting deep, scoring opportunistically against a fast and loose home side, and maybe stealing a draw.
  
  The only problem with that scenario is that, on neutral territory, that drawn scenario would still be long shot — Leverkusen is arguably the superior side. Now throw in the fact that Leverkusen’s playing this one at home (a venue where they’ve only lost two of their last 19 European matches), and the possibility of a draw starts to look absurd. In short, Leverkusen probably takes this one with ease… even if they take more shots than would normally be necessary to do it.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Bayer Leverkusen

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bayer Leverkusen Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.20

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.63-1.81

⚽ Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Wednesday 16 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Outside of the Greek Cup, Olympiacos have only scored four goals in six matches this season.

  • Jagiellonia are unbeaten in Europe this season with three wins, one draw, and nine goals scored against just three conceded.

  • Since losing El Kaabi earlier this month, Olympiacos have played three matches and scored four goals — and lost their most recent home game 0–1.

  • Jagiellonia played four matches this season against opposition of (roughly) Olympiacos’ level and only achieved one draw against three defeats.

• CXSports says: On one side of this fixture we’ve got a Big Greek club with a loud stadium going up against a small Polish side making its first appearance in the Europa League. And the money more or less says what you’d expect from that setup — 69% Olympiacos. And while that number isn’t exactly ridiculous, it’s arguably built up almost entirely on reputation.
  
  If we look at performance over recent weeks, the balance of this game looks a whole lot flatter than the “bigger, more reputable side playing at home” narrative suggests. Olympiacos has scored just four goals in six matches against anyone who wasn’t a second-division side or Volos. They also dropped out of the Champions League to NEC Nijmegen off the back of 0-0 at home and a 2-1 defeat in the Netherlands. Then they sacked a manager who was unbeaten in the league, hired Imanol Alguacil, and went on to lose 0-1 at home. And finally, their squad for Wednesday night is missing Ayoub El Kaabi — the club’s top scorer, with 26 European goals (a club record) — Yusuf Yazıcı, Leon Bailey, Lorenzo Pirola, and a suspended Kostas Fortounis.
  
  Of course, Jagiellonia aren’t exactly living a fairy tale at the moment, so just because Olympiacos are having a tough time, that doesn’t mean they’re doomed. As we speak, Jagiellonia are seventh in Poland, have lost three of seven league games. Although, in Europe they have at least been a harder team, with three wins, a draw, and an aggregate 9-3 across four matches. They also eliminated the Rangers by winning at home and drawing at Ibrox. Then they put six past Iberia Tbilisi across two legs.
  
  So, as long as we see “European” Jagiellonia here, there’s a case to be made that they’re in with a chance against Olympiacos. About the one thing that might hold them back is Olympiacos’ statistical advantage in defense, with just 0.75 goals conceded per game.
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, the way this one’s shaping up, it’s looking a whole lot more level than what the club reputation story (and market) is telling. In fact, this one’s looking close enough to being a coin toss that we’re going to go out on a limb here and say this has more of a chance of ending in a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.80-5.10

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.36-1.54

⚽ Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Thursday 17 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • NEC has only kept one clean sheet in ten matches this season while conceding 1.90 goals per game.

  • Juventus only lost twice in ten Champions League matches last season and have only lost two of eleven home games against Dutch clubs.

  • NEC’s four European matches this season resulted in 2-1 and 0-0 against Olympiacos, then 1-3 and 0-3 against Bodo/Glimt.

• CXSports says: Juventus, as it currently stands, is the kind of club that makes its fans nervous. After spending last season in the Champions League where it only lost 2 out of 10 matches, it finished sixth in Italy and landed itself here — in the Europa League. And then, it spent the first month of this season losing players faster than it could sign them, including captain Manuel Locatelli who’s out for four to six months with a knee operation. Then there’s last season’s top scorer (Kenan Yıldız), Khephren Thuram, Weston McKennie, and Jeremie Boga out, and Andrea Cambiaso looking doubtful. And then there’s also Edon Zhegrova — who’s scored one third of all domestic goals this season — who’s technically out because Juventus didn’t register him for the Europa League so therefore cannot pick him. Or, in other words, Juventus is thin.
  
  Of course, none of this is likely to change the balance here insofar as the outcome goes. NEC is, to put it mildly, in worse shape. At home, in an inferior league to the sort of competition Juventus represents, they’ve conceded 19 goals in 10 matches this season. And that’s left them sitting tenth of eighteen in the Dutch league with a negative goal difference, which doesn’t exactly bode well for them — being barely competitive against Dutch competition leaves them exposed now that they’re faced with the task of walking into a ground where Juventus have won seven, drawn two and lost just two of eleven European games against Dutch clubs.
  
  Indeed, the only real hope NEC has here is that they do have a history of taking some points on the road (six of their seven league points away from home). And, at the European level, they even held Olympiacos scoreless in Piraeus. So if they can manage to get one thing right (sit deep, concede the ball, and play the underdog) against a severely kneecapped Juventus, there is a chance of fighting for equality here. The only problem is, it would need NEC to defend for ninety minutes in a way they’re barely capable of doing — conceding 19 goals in 10 Dutch league games isn’t exactly “promising”.
  
  As such, we don’t see how this is anything but a clear Juventus victory. Sure, Juventus is probably going to be a little slower (and lower scoring) than they might have been given a full squad. But the quality gap here is just too big for NEC to do anything more than create minor complications.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Juventus

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Juventus Victory

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.27

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.55-1.73

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today, but we’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to what’s happening in league football leading up to and over the weekend.

Until then, enjoy the football.