Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Round 2 of the Europa League qualifications gets underway, and we’ve got three quick picks worth taking a look at.

But more on that soon. First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• Tomorrow’s complete Europa League schedule. 🗓️

• Three quick Europa League picks worth a look. ✅

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This week, we’ve got 10 Europa League qualification matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in Europe/Paris Time)

Thursday 23 July

• 15:00 — Tromso vs Viktoria Plzen

• 18:00 — Qarabag FK vs CSKA

• 19:00 — PAOK FC vs Dynamo Kiev

• 19:00 — FC Sheriff Tiraspol vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

• 19:00 — Anderlecht vs Hammarby IF

• 19:00 — Hradec Kralove vs Tromso

• 20:00 — FC Midtjylland vs Besiktas

• 20:00 — Benfica vs St Gallen

• 20:00 — Ferencvarosi TC vs Twente

• 21:00 — Pafos vs HNK Hadjuk Split

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Qarabag FK vs CSKA
🏟️ Europa League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Thursday 23 July; 18:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A vast difference in European experience and performance makes Qarabag look particularly solid here.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Qarabag reached the Champions League knockout phase play-offs in 2025-26, while CSKA Sofia hasn’t reached any European group phase since 2023-24.

  • After round 1 of this qualifying campaign, Qarabag is 6-0 on aggregate; CSKA Sofia is 5-3.

  • Qarabag won two of three previous head-to-heads between these two, with the most recent meeting dating back to 2023.

• CXSports says: Both sides here play in small leagues — Azerbaijan’s twelve-team division averaged 2.51 goals a game and barely 1,500 fans, while Bulgaria’s Parva Liga sits in similar coefficient territory. So neither side’s domestic numbers are probably only worth taking with a large grain of salt here. On the other hand, recent European-level history for each club is quite telling.
  
  Qarabag reached the knockout phase play-offs of the Champions League last season, became the first Azerbaijani club to reach that group stage back in 2017, and has played a full Europa League league phase the year before. CSKA Sofia, on the other hand, have not reached the group or league phase of any European competition since 2023-24 when they crashed out 6-0 on aggregate. They’re now chasing the Europa League proper for the first time since 2020-21.
  
  In other words, while these two clubs might come from vaguely comparable leagues, one has been a consistent presence at this level while the other hasn’t touched it in years.
  
  The current-season also reinforces the same story. While both managed to win in Round 1, the margins with which they did so tell two very different stories: Qarabag brushed aside Iceland’s Vestri 6-0, while CSKA needed 5-3 to get past Derry City (conceding three goals to a League of Ireland side that’s currently sixth in its own table!).
  
  Now throw Qarabag’s home record into the mix (three wins from their last four at home), and a head-to-head record in which Qarabag have won two of the three previous meetings.
  
  As such, this one looks like it should be a reasonably controlled home side victory by a side that’s operating at a level above its opponent insofar as continental performance is concerned.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Qarabag FK

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Qarabag FK Victory

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.57

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.22-1.31

⚽ Tromso vs Hradec Kralove
🏟️ Europa League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 20 July; 20:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: An in-form Tromso side that’s hitting its stride takes on an under-prepared Hradec side.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Tromso’s scored four goals in three consecutive games, while Hradec Kralove hasn’t played a competitive match yet this season.

  • Tromso sits 2nd in the Eliteserien with 24 points from 12 games (7W, 3D, 2L) and has lost only once at home all year.

  • Hradec Kralove is only in this tie only because Karvina were expelled for match-fixing. (Karvina was declared ineligible by UEFA on 2 July, Plzen moved up to the play-off round, and Hradec inherited the second-round place in an upgrade from the Conference League that arrived weeks before kick-off, with no time to plan for it.)

• CXSports says: Both clubs in this fixture finished near the top of their respective domestic leagues — Tromso finished third in Norway with 57 points, while Hradec finished fourth in Czechia. And, for once, both leagues share a similar(ish) coefficient. But what separates these two here is something much more mundane — where each sits in its calendar.
  
  Tromso are twelve games into their season, second in the Eliteserien on 24 points from seven wins, three draws and two defeats, and are currently in the sort of form that produces four goals in three consecutive matches. Hradec Kralove, on the other hand, hasn’t played a competitive fixture since May — their preparation has been four friendlies. And sadly for them, summer qualifiers are routinely decided by this kind of asymmetry.
  
  What’s more, the circumstances of Hradec’s involvement only make their situation worse. They are not here on merit — they originally qualified for the Conference League, and only inherited this Europa League place after Czech Cup winners Karvina were expelled for manipulating three matches and declared ineligible by UEFA in early July, pushing Plzen up to the play-off round and Hradec into the slot Plzen vacated. As such, the club’s arriva at this game is very much a last-minute affair, leaving little room for adequate preparation.
  
  Of course, none of that says anything about their overall quality. Hradec is, after all, a fourth-place finish in the Czech league. And it’s not like Tromso are unbeatable. They were thrashed 0-5 at home by Brann, and 0-5 away at Bodo/Glimt this season, so their defence is not watertight
  
  However, a squad that planned for a different competition, a different opponent and a later start being forced to walk into the Arctic to face a side in mid-season rhythm is, to put it mildly, facing a really tough task here. And Tromso’s home record only deepens Hradec’s disadvantage further — three wins in their last four at Romssa Arena, and just one home defeat across the whole of 2026.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Tromso

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Tromso Victory

• Odds Range: 1.46-1.63

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.35

⚽ St Gallen vs Benfica
🏟️ Europa League Qualifications (Round 2)
📅 Thursday 23 July; 20:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A genuinely interesting match given Benfica’s recent disruptions.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Benfica went the entire 2025-26 Primeira Liga season unbeaten — 34 games, 23 wins, 11 draws, zero defeats while only conceding 25 goals conceded in 34 games (although they still only finished third).

  • Benfica has only played two pre-season friendlies and are missing at least six senior players, with a brand-new manager making his competitive debut.

  • St. Gallen won the Swiss Cup and finished second domestically, but were just beaten 6-3 by Lyon and 3-0 by Norwich.

• CXSports says: The class gap here is glaring: Benfica went an entire Primeira Liga season without losing — 34 matches, 23 wins, 11 draws, no defeats, 74 goals scored and only 25 conceded — in a league several rungs above the Swiss Super League (which UEFA ranks 16th in Europe). What’s more, they reached the Champions League knockout play-offs last season and only lost to Real Madrid. St. Gallen, on the other hand, just had the best season they’ve had in decades, but then went on to show serious weakness at the European level after losing to Lyon and Norwich. So, based on raw quality, this one shouldn’t even be close.
  
  However, there’s a caveat here. The first is readiness. Benfica’s played precisely two friendlies, have a brand-new manager (Marco Silva) after Mourinho’s departure to Real Madrid, and arrive here missing a substantial chunk of their squad — Prestianni suspended, Bruma injured, and Rios, Lukebakio, Aursnes and Schjelderup all on post-World Cup leave. New signing Jhon Duran may also not be fit. In other words, they’re facing a massive amount of disruption. Meanwhile, St. Gallen has already played four friendlies, retain managerial continuity, and begin their own league season the day after this match — they’re simply further along.
  
  With that said, St. Gallen’s recent performance is genuinely poor — they conceded six to Lyon and three to Norwich in consecutive warm-ups, which suggests their defence will struggle badly against the likes of Vangelis Pavlidis, who scored 30 goals last season and has found the net in both of Benfica’s friendlies.
  
  In other words, there’s still a good chance that Benfica still comes out ahead here. However, we suspect that the scoreline is likely to be looser and the performance rougher than the odds imply. A first competitive outing for a new manager with a patched-together XI doesn’t exactly scream quality. Further, St. Gallen’s cup-winning season and home advantage give them a real chance of scoring here, even if their pre-season defending leaves a lot to be desired.
  
  As such, while we’re going to back Benfica here, we wouldn’t be against the idea of making an underdog play here given the odds on offer.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Benfica

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Benfica Victory

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.35

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (St Gallen / Draw)

• Odds Range: 2.61-3.70

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back for the weekend with a look at the upcoming Argentine Primera Division and Brazilian Serie A matches.

Until then, enjoy what’s left of this week’s European qualifiers.