Good Morning ☀️,
It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?
It’s the middle of the week, and that means one thing. The Europa League’s about to get started with another round. So let’s not waste anymore time and get straight into it.
What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:
Full Europa League + Europa Conference League match schedules. 🗓️
Our top three Europa picks for this week. ✅
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TODAY’S MATCH SCHEDULE [EUROPA LEAGUE + EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE]
This week, we’ve got a pile of Europa League and Europa Conference matches coming up, with all but one of those matches taking place tomorrow. (Note: all dates and times are in CET)
🇪🇺 Europa League
Wednesday 04 November
16:30 — Rennes vs Olympiacos
Thursday 05 November
18:45 — AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC
18:45 — Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg
18:45 — Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim
18:45 — Levski vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
18:45 — Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen
18:45 — NEC Nijmegen vs AC Omonia
18:45 — Real Sociedad vs Lyon
18:45 — Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth
21:00 — AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
21:00 — Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
21:00 — Benfica vs Lech Poznan
21:00 — Celta Vigo vs Royal Union Saint-Gilloise
21:00 — Celtic vs Besiktas
21:00 — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI Crete
21:00 — Sturm Graz vs NK Celje
21:00 — Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
21:00 — Uniao Torreense vs Ararat Armenia
🇪🇺 Europa Conference League
Thursday 05 November
18:45 — AGF Aarhus vs Braga
18:45 — Atalanta vs Kairat
18:45 — FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
18:45 — FC Thun vs Hearts
18:45 — Kuopio PS vs Gent
18:45 — Lincoln Red Imps vs HNK Hadjuk Split
18:45 — Mjallby vs FK Borac Banja Luka
18:45 — Red Star Belgrade vs Inter Club d’Escaldes
18:45 — Trabzonspor vs Freiburg
21:00 — Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland
21:00 — Copenhagen vs Iberia 1999
21:00 — CS Universitatea Craiova vs FK Egnatia
21:00 — Getafe vs Brighton
21:00 — Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris
21:00 — Panathinaikos vs CSKA
21:00 — Riga FC vs Baumit Jablonec
21:00 — Sint Truiden vs Brann
21:00 — Twente vs Pafos
Want to get the best odds on these matches?
TODAY’S TOP PICKS
⚽ Red Star Belgrade vs Inter Club d’Escaldes
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 05 November; 18:45 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Inter are second from the bottom on the table and have 1 goal scored against 5 conceded in two games.
Red Star score in every game and usually score prolifically — they’ve taken 19 in their last six matches (3.2 a game) across all competitions.
In this competition, Red Star has faced much tougher opposition — their two opponents average a UEFA rating of 37.8, and they still scored 4. Inter’s two opponents average 8.2, and they only scored 1.
CXSports says: This one’s simple — Red Star beats Inter on just about every comparison that we can make. In this competition alone (as small of a sample as it might be), Red Star has scored 4 goals in 2 games while Inter has only scored 1. And it’s not like Red Star pulled that off by facing softer competition. Quite the contrary. They faced Switzerland’s Lugano and Denmark’s Copenhagen, who carry an average UEFA rating of 37.8. Meanwhile, Inter’s games came against Sweden’s Mjällby and Romania’s Craiova, who average 8.2. And Inter still lost to both of them while failing to score in one of them. And, given that mismatch in opponent strength, we’re going to go out a limb here and say that means Red Star’s defense, which is even with Inter’s in terms of goals conceded (both have conceded 5), is technically better.
That mismatch also helps put Red Star’s lack of a victory this season (they have one draw and one loss) into perspective. While their overall results are barely any better than Inter’s (who’s lost both matches), the closeness in results hardly reflects the reality on the ground.
Of course, there’s always the chance that this is all just down to Inter having a rough patch. After all, their domestic league numbers are quite good — they’re unbeaten in 7 Andorran league games with 17 scored and just 5 conceded. However, as good as that looks, Red Star also has even better numbers domestically, with 37 goals scored and just 6 conceded in 14 games. And they did that in a tougher league.
So where does that leave us? Well, we don’t like Inter’s chances of scoring here, even if they’re not zero. While Red Star has conceded in five of its last six matches (including 2 at 12th-placed Mačva in its domestic league), and are also without Gudelj (a key central defender), Inter’s near-total inability to score at this level so far doesn’t leave us with high hopes. As for Red Star, given their stats, what else could we expect but goals, and several of them?Score prediction: 3-1 for Red Star Belgrade
Bet Option #1
Bet: Red Star Belgrade Victory
Odds Range: 1.02-1.09
Bet Option #2
Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)
Odds Range: 1.20-1.32
⚽ Benfica vs Lech Poznan
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Thursday 05 November; 21:00 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Benfica has 9 wins and 1 draw In 10 home games this season across all competitions.
Lech only has 1 goal scored in 3 Europa League games.
Benfica are on a six-game winning run across all competitions with an aggregate of 17-4.
CXSports says: Benfica should win this easily, and the reason is simple — they score prolifically at home, while Lech don’t seem to score in Europe at all. At home this season, Benfica’s been averaging 3.2 goals a game. And haven’t lost in 10. Meanwhile, Lech has only scored once in its three Europa League games (against a league average of 1.54). Oh, and Lech are currently 32nd of 36 while Benfica are joint first.
With that said, Lech’s European numbers are arguably not quite as bad as they seem. Their games this season were against Crystal Palace, Leverkusen, and Sunderland, who all sit in the top half of the competition. The only problem is that Benfica’s not only in the top half — it’s literally at the top sharing joint-1st with Leverkusen (who beat Lech 4-0 just a couple of weeks ago).
Of course, to be fair to Lech, their domestic league form isn’t that bad. In fact, it’s actually kinda good — they’ve got ten wins in twelve, 2.67 goals a game, and they’re the top of Poland. The only problem is, Benfica’s league numbers are almost identical — 2.70 goals a game and 8 wins in 10. What’s more, Benfica earned its numbers in a stronger league.
As such, this one’s pretty simple. Benfica scores consistently. Lech does the opposite. Expect that pattern to be what dictates this match.Score prediction: 3-0 for Benfica
Bet Option #1
Bet: Benfica Victory
Odds Range: 1.07-1.18
Bet Option #2
Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)
Odds Range: 1.20-1.31
⚽ Copenhagen vs Iberia 1999
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 05 November; 21:00 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Copenhagen are unbeaten in 10 home games this season (8 wins and 2 draws) with an aggregate scoreline of 26-8.
Iberia have only scored 1 goal in 2 Conference League games.
Copenhagen plays in a tougher domestic league and scores 41% above their league average while conceding 40% below it. Iberia only scores 10% above their league average and 20% below the concession average.
CXSports says: Copenhagen scores freely without conceding excessively — they’ve taken 5 goals against 2 conceded in their two Conference League games this season. Meanwhile, Iberia’s barely scored, with just one scored against 3 conceded in its two Conference League games. Of course, that’s the results of just two games, so we shouldn’t trust those numbers blindly. However, the same basic mismatch plays out even as we look across a broader set of games.
In their respective domestic leagues, both clubs are second. However, those standings aren’t immediately comparable — Denmark is 16th in UEFA’s rankings while Georgia is way back 50th. Meanwhile, Copenhagen’s club rating is 54.375 against Iberia’s 5.000. So if we adjust for that, Copenhagen’s 2nd place carries far more weight than Iberia’s. What’s more, despite facing much tougher domestic competition, Copenhagen still manages to score 41% above the Danish league average and concede 40% below it. Meanwhile, Iberia only scores 10% above the Georgian average while conceding just 20% below it — respectable results in the context of its league, but utterly useless once adjusted at the European level.
With that said, Copenhagen aren’t necessarily home free. Their last six games have seen them draw three — a 1-1 vs AGF and OB at home, and 2-2 at Red Star. So there is a case to be made that they maybe lack a little in terms of form insofar as finishing goes, although we wouldn’t make too much of it. After all, Copenhagen are still unbeaten in all six, have scored in every one, and still kept three clean sheets with an aggregate of 12 goals scored against 4 conceded in its last 6. So that hardly looks like the kind of form a side like Iberia — a side that struggles to score at this level — is going to be able to challenge.
As such, we’re calling this one as a clean sheet victory for Copenhagen. Potentially by multiple goals.Score prediction: 2-0 for Copenhagen
Bet Option #1
Bet: Copenhagen Victory
Odds Range: 1.10-1.20
Bet Option #2
Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)
Odds Range: 1.58-1.80
Make your sportsbook work for you!
WHAT’S COMING UP
That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to all the action coming up this weekend.
Until then, enjoy the football.
