Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a pile of Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification playoff round matches ahead of us this week. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The complete match schedule for this week’s Europa games. 🗓️

• Our top three Europa qualification picks for this week. ✅

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We’ve got a great series of Europa Conference League and Europa League matches coming up with a packed schedule for tomorrow.(Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Europa League Qualification Playoff Round

20 Aug Thursday

• 17:00 — Kairat vs Anderlecht

• 18:00 — Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Iberia 1999

• 18:00 — Mjallby vs Red Bull Salzburg

• 19:00 — Besiktas vs Kauno Zalgiris

• 19:00 — CS Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat Armenia

• 19:00 — FK Egnatia vs Lillestrom

• 19:00 — Lech Poznan vs FC Thun

• 19:00 — Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC

• 20:00 — OFI Crete vs CSKA

• 20:00 — Red Star Belgrade vs Viktoria Plzen

• 20:00 — Sint Truiden vs AC Omonia

• 21:00 — Benfica vs AGF Aarhus

Europa Conference League Qualification Playoff Round

20 Aug Thursday

• 18:00 — Inter Turku vs Copenhagen

• 18:00 — Lincoln Red Imps vs Larne FC

• 19:00 — FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka

• 19:00 — FC Nordsjaelland vs St Gallen

• 19:00 — Tromso vs Brighton

• 19:30 — KI Klaksvik vs Riga FC

• 19:45 — PAOK FC vs Brann

• 20:00 — Gornik Zabrze vs Monaco

• 20:00 — KF Drita vs Inter Club d’Escaldes

• 20:00 — Twente vs Qarabag FK

• 20:00 — Vikingur Reykjavik vs FK Borac Banja Luka

• 20:15 — FC Sion vs Ajax

• 20:30 — Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

• 20:30 — Gent vs Hibernian

• 20:30 — Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

• 20:30 — Motherwell vs Freiburg

• 20:30 — Panathinaikos vs Hradec Kralove

• 20:45 — Hearts vs Rapid Wien

• 20:45 — Rangers vs Baumit Jablonec

• 21:00 — Braga vs Austria Wien

• 21:00 — FK Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos

• 21:00 — Getafe vs Partizan Belgrade

• 21:00 — HNK Hadjuk Split vs Rakow Czestochowa

• 21:00 — Shamrock Rovers vs Kuopio PS

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Besiktas vs Kauno Zalgiris
🏟️ Europa League Qualification Playoff Round
📅 Thursday 20 August; 19:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Besiktas has kept a clean sheet in all four of its European qualifiers this season with 5-0 on aggregate (and five clean sheets in five across all competitions).

  • Kauno Zalgiris has conceded 10 goals in their last four matches, including a 5-0 meltdown against Dinamo Zagreb.

  • Türkiye (Besiktas) ranks 9th in Europe (46.775 coefficient points) to Lithuania’s (Kauno Zalgiris) ~45th (7.875).

• CXSports says: This one is rather obvious. Besiktas have played four European qualifiers this season and conceded exactly nothing in those games. Meanwhile, across all competitions they’ve got five clean sheets in five matches. Kauno Zalgiris, over the same stretch, has leaked ten goals in four matches, five of which were conceded away at Dinamo Zagreb — a Croatian side that sits roughly one rung below the level Besiktas operates at. And there’s probably not much need to analyze too deeply what happens when a team that just conceded five to Zagreb walks into the home stadium of a Turkish giant that hasn’t been breached all summer.
  
  But it doesn’t stop there. The league-strength gap also widens the gulf between these two. While Zalgiris may top Lithuania’s A Lyga with a +25 goal difference (40 scored, 15 conceded in 21 games) which, at first glance, might read like a serious defense, Lithuania sits around 45th in UEFA’s coefficient table (7.875 points). Türkiye, on the other hand sits around 9th (46.775). And that explains why A Lyga (a low-budget, thin-crowd division) has never seen its champions survive Champions League qualifying. And once you add in the home advantage (where Besiktas has already dispatched Midtjylland and Hradec Kralove this campaign), it would seem like the visitors are, both literally and figuratively, well and truly out of their league.
  
  With that said, this might not turn into the absolute smash fest the gulf points to. While Besiktas is probably more than capable of doing so, their personality this summer has tended towards tighter, more conservative play with all of their four qualifying wins coming by a single goal until the second Midtjylland leg. So while Zalgiris’s defense is practically begging for punishment, Besiktas may simply take the professional two- or three-goal cushion and pocket the victory rather than chase a spectacle.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Besiktas

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Besiktas Victory

• Odds Range: 1.07-1.16

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.39-1.57

⚽ Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
🏟️ Europa Conference League Qualification Playoff Round
📅 Thursday 20 August; 20:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Atalanta sits in a top-four European league while Hapoel’s Israeli top flight ranks 15th.

  • Hapoel have conceded two goals in each of their two European away legs this season.

  • This is Hapoel’s first European campaign in 12 years; Atalanta were in the Champions League last season and won the Europa League in 2024.

• CXSports says: The experience gap between these two is hard to overstate — Atalanta have breathed the thin air of the Champions League, and even won the Europa League in 2024. Meanwhile, Hapoel Tel Aviv haven’t seen a lick of European football in twelve years. And while that gap doesn’t guarantee anything, it’s an important factor that’s baked right into the relative coefficients — Italy’s Serie A sits among UEFA’s top four national leagues; Israel’s top flight ranks fifteenth. Importantly, Hapoel’s fourth-place finish was earned in a division that ships 2.95 goals a game, which means their numbers are inflated by the company they keep.
  
  What’s more, while playing in its tougher division, Atalanta only conceded around 0.9 goals per game across the full season, which is the profile of a side that can absolutely suffocate its opponents. And that profile might only be reinforced now that they’ve handed the reins to Maurizio Sarri — a coach whose philosophy has produced a pre-season full of wins to nil, including a 1-0 over Athletic Bilbao (against which Hapoel isn’t even in the same ballpark). Now throw in the fact that Hapoel’s conceded two goals in each of their two European away legs this season, and it would seem there’s a good chance that Atlanta won’t just be locking their opponents out — they’ll also find plenty of opportunities to score.
  
  So where does this leave us? Well, we expect Atlanta to continue with its suffocating style of play, so we don’t see Hapoel getting much of a chance to score. Meanwhile, with Hapoel having a record of conceding heavily in away matches this season, Atlanta will likely have plenty of opportunities to pick a couple of goals off to walk away with a tidy victory.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Atlanta

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Atlanta Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.18

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.49-1.78

⚽ Benfica vs AGF Aarhus
🏟️ Europa League Qualification Playoff Round
📅 Thursday 20 August; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Benfica’s scored 21 goals in their last 5 while conceding just 4 (0.8/game). Aarhus has shipped 6 in their last 2 competitive matches alone.

  • Home-leg blowouts are a Benfica signature — they’ve won both home legs in this qualifying run by a 5-goal margin (5-0 and 6-1).

  • Portugal’s league (Benfica) sits 6th in UEFA’s coefficient (68.6) while Denmark’s (AGF Aarhus) ranks 13th (41.4).

• CXSports says: This one looks like it’s shaping up to become a brutal, one-sided bloodbath. Benfica’s arriving after having scored twenty-one goals in its last five matches while only conceding four (an average of better than four scored and under one conceded per game). And they’ve just has spent the summer winning its home legs by 5-goal margins. Meanwhile, Aarhus is arriving after having conceded six goals across its last two competitive matches alone while also being winless in its last three away games. And, it’s just been humiliated 4-0 in Azerbaijan by a side from a country UEFA ranks below its own.
  
  And let’s not think for a moment that Aarhus’s decent domestic stats can do much to cancel any of that out. Denmark’s league sits 13th on UEFA’s five-year coefficient (41.4), while Portugal’s sits in 6th (68.6). And the results back that ranking: Benfica beat Scottish opposition 7-2 on aggregate this month; Aarhus lost to Azerbaijani opposition.
  
  There’s also a good chance here that Benfica will go after another massive winning margin here. With this being a two-legged fixture with an away leg to deal with next, there’s a good chance they’ll be out to make hay while the sun shines (a home leg) so they can rest easy in the away leg. With that said, Aarhus won’t be too keen to chase, even if they do get to play the next leg at home. So even if they’ve got all the hallmarks of a team that can’t keep the ball out, that doesn’t mean they’re not going to try and have some (relative) success doing so. And that might limit just how far the margin for Benfica blows out, even if it doesn’t result in a close game.
  
  As such, we see this ending in an easy Benfica victory. And they’ll probably do so with a multi-goal winning margin. But we’re hesitant to predict this one as another 5-goal blowout.

• Score prediction: 4-1 for Benfica

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Benfica Victory

• Odds Range: 

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.23-1.37

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week as we gear up for the first round of Premier League football this season.

Until the, enjoy the football.

PS: The first EPL match is this Friday, and it looks like a killer one to watch as defending champs Arsenal takes on Coventry City — a freshly-promoted side that hasn’t seen top flight football in decades.