Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a lot ahead today (almost 40 matches across the Europa League and Europa Conference League), so let’s get into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The complete match schedule for today’s and tomorrow’s Europa games. 🗓️

• Our top three Europa qualification picks for this week. ✅

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This week, we’ve got a massive series of matches coming up across both Europa League and Europa Conference League qualifications. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Europa League

05 Aug Wednesday

• 20:15 — Ferencvarosi TC vs Gornik Zabrze

06 Aug Thursday

• 17:00 — Kuopio PS vs CS Universitatea Craiova

• 18:00 — Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Rangers

• 18:00 — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA

• 19:00 — Hradec Kralove vs Besiktas

• 19:00 — Lech Poznan vs KI Klaksvik

• 19:00 — Lincoln Red Imps vs AC Omonia

• 19:00 — Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos

• 19:45 — PAOK FC vs Anderlecht

• 20:00 — FC Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik

• 21:00 — Benfica vs Hearts

Europa Conference League

05 Aug Wednesday

• 19:00 — Brann vs Apollon Limassol

• 20:30 — Panathinaikos vs CSKA 1948

06 Aug Thursday

• 17:00 — Inter Turku vs Vaduz

• 18:00 — Baumit Jablonec vs Rigas Futbola Skola

• 18:00 — FC Noah vs FC Sion

• 18:00 — HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell

• 18:00 — Paide Linnameeskond vs Rapid Wien

• 18:30 — CFR Cluj vs Tromso

• 19:00 — Debreceni VSC vs Copenhagen

• 19:00 — Dynamo Kiev vs Qarabag FK

• 19:00 — FC Sheriff Tiraspol vs St Gallen

• 19:00 — IFK Goteborg vs Gent

• 19:00 — Rakow Czestochowa vs Hammarby IF

• 19:00 — Riga FC vs Gyori ETO

• 19:00 — VMFD Zalgiris vs HNK Hadjuk Split

• 19:30 — Beitar Jerusalem vs Austria Wien

• 20:00 — Ajax vs Shelbourne

• 20:00 — Hapoel Tel Aviv vs GKS Katowice

• 20:00 — Twente vs Dunajska Streda

• 20:30 — Braga vs Dinamo Minsk

• 20:30 — FK Borac Banja Luka vs Maxline Vitebsk

• 20:30 — Lugano vs NSI Runavik

• 20:30 — Valur vs FC Nordsjaelland

• 20:45 — Bohemian vs FC Midtjylland

• 20:45 — HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

• 21:00 — Hibernian vs FK Shkendija

• 21:00 — Partizan Belgrade vs FC Tobol

• 21:00 — Tre Fiori vs KF Drita

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Ajax vs Shelbourne
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 06 August; 20:00 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A mismatch so massive that the outcome’s more or less decided before the game’s even kicked off.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • The Netherlands ranks 6th in Europe (coefficient 67.150) against Ireland’s 31st (14.968), while Shelbourne’s own club coefficient sits at roughly 2.99.

  • Ajax won 8-2 on aggregate over Vojvodina (4-1 in each leg). When Shelbourne last met Eredivisie/Premier League opposition, they lost 2-0 to AZ Alkmaar and 3-0 to Crystal Palace. 

  • Shelbourne have failed to score in six of their last eight European matches, and drew a blank in five of six Conference League league-phase games last season.

• CXSports says: Let’s not beat around the bush here — Shelbourne’s a mid-table Dublin club (fifth in Ireland) with just eight wins from twenty-four league games. And they’re arriving off the back of a 1-0 defeat to Waterford (the worst team in their own division). And now, they’re walking into a 55,000-seat arena in Amsterdam to face a four-time European champion that just put eight goals past its last opponent across two legs. And let’s not forget about the league gap — the Netherlands is Europe’s sixth-ranked football nation with a coefficient of 67.150, while Ireland sits 31st on 14.968.
  
  And that gap shows up in results. Ajax arrive here unbeaten with a massive 8-2 aggregate over Vojvodina from the last round. Shelbourne, by contrast, struggle to score against good teams: they failed to find the net in six of their last eight European matches and in five of six Conference League group games last season. And when they last faced sides from Ajax’s level, the results were almost embarrassing — 0-2 against AZ Alkmaar, 0-3 against Crystal Palace.
  
  Those games more or less capture the best Shelbourne can really hope for here — keep it to two or three, but don’t expect to score. Of course, that’s not to say they’re guaranteed to go down by a multi-goal margin. They do have one promising sign in a 0-0 they managed to grind out against Celje last season. So, in theory at least, they can survive against superior competition, even if Celje isn’t exactly the same difficulty as facing Ajax at home. And let’s not forget that Shelbourne haven’t kept a single clean sheet in their last ten matches in any competition.
  
  As such, this prediction is more or less obvious. Shelbourne will likely try to survive this one to the best of their ability. But that ability won’t fully hold. Ajax simply has too much quality, too much momentum, and home advantage in a venue where Shelbourne will feel very out of place. So expect the Dublin side to concede early, get tired, and ship a couple more.

• Score prediction: 4-0 for Ajax

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Ajax Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.16

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.35-1.80

⚽ Braga vs Dinamo Minsk
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 06 August; 20:30 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A far superior team playing at home makes this one as close to a sure thing as you’ll see at this level.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Portugal ranks 7th in Europe (coefficient 63.266) against Belarus’s 50th (6.625) — one of the widest domestic gaps in this round of qualifying.

  • Across their last three European matches at home, Braga’s scored 11 goals and only conceded 1. They’ve also won 8 of their last 10 European home games.

  • Despite topping their domestic league, Dinamo Minsk have been winless in 12 of their last 15 Conference League and have outright lost 8 of their last 12.

• CXSports says: The mismatch here couldn’t be more stark. Braga are a Europa League semi-finalist from last season and has spent seven straight years in the Champions League or Europa League proper before this step down. And here, they’re hosting a Belarusian club from a league ranked 50th in Europe (43 places below Portugal’s 7th) — a gap in pedigree and week-to-week opposition quality that is, in a word, absolutely enormous. And that gap’s only going to be compounded by venue — this leg’s at Estádio Municipal de Braga where the hosts have scored 11 goals and conceded just one across their last three European qualifiers while also winning eight of their last ten inside ninety minutes.
  
  Each team’s form also reinforces the general shape here. Braga arrives unbeaten in seven, winners of four of their last five, and just dispatched with Zeleznicar Pancevo 5-0 on aggregate. And they’re averaging 1.9 goals scored to 1.2 conceded. And while Dinamo Minsk can certainly score on the right occasion (they put up a four-goal blitz in Baku) their overall competition record is poor — they’re winless in 12 of their last 15 Conference League matches and were beaten in 8 of their last 12.
  
  As such, the likely course of this game is for Braga to dominate possession, and break through inside the first half-hour, while Dinamo Minsk’s only real hope is to keep it to a one- or two-goal deficit. But Braga’s home performance and finishing quality, combined with Dinamo’s habit of conceding and their broad competition-wide fragility, will likely see the margin blow past that point.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Braga

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Braga Victory

• Odds Range: 1.04-1.13

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.52

⚽ Benfica vs Hearts
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Thursday 06 August; 21:00 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: With the Hearts in horrible form right now and Benfica hitting its stride, this one’s a must.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Hearts’ lost their second round games 0-4 and 0-2 (0-6 on aggregate) to Sturm Graz — a team from a league (Austria, 17th) essentially level with Scotland (18th). Then, they lost their league opener at Aberdeen (1-2) giving them Eight conceded and one scored in three games.

  • Benfica scored 5 in one game — a 5-0 demolition of St Gallen — to get through the second round 6-2.

  • Hearts finished second at home, just two points off Celtic, and were denied a first title since 1960 on the final day. This could motivate them to put up more resistance if the new-look side can steady itself.

• CXSports says: Hearts are a club that led the Scottish Premiership for much of last season, only to finish second at the last minute, two points behind Celtic. That saw them miss out on their first league title since 1960. So there’s a chance we’re going to see a little extra motivation to come back stronger here. Although, results from the last round and the league gap suggest that’s not the case.
  
  Benfica hail from Portugal, which currently sits 6th in Europe on a coefficient of 68.567, while Scotland (Hearts) is 18th on 31.650 — a gap of twelve places. And while that league gap isn’t insurmountable, Benfica’s individual performance might be — they carry a club coefficient of 90.000 — the 13th-highest in Europe — and just rediscovered their teeth with a 5-0 dismantling of St Gallen. Meanwhile, Hearts are arriving winless and under new boss with a freshly minted 6-0 aggregate thrashing at the hands of Sturm Graz — an Austrian club from a league ranked essentially level with Scotland’s.
  
  And that Sturm Graz result is probably the warning light here. If a team roughly Hearts’ equal in league terms could win 4-0 in Austria and 2-0 in Edinburgh, then Benfica (a considerable step above Sturm) playing the first leg at home are probably a whole lot more than just a threat — they might easily run up a similar or even bigger margin. And that looks even more likely considering the Hearts also opened their domestic season with a 1-2 loss in their domestic season opener, leaving them with a miserable looking 8-1 on aggregate across three games.
  
  Of course, Benfica aren’t flawless, particularly at the back — they did lose 3-0 at Newcastle last season and conceded twice to St Gallen in the first leg. So Hearts may, if they get lucky) create a chance or two (although the likelihood of those chances converting remain slim). However, even if Hearts do somehow manage to sneak one through, a controlled Benfica win remains more or less a given here. The Hearts’ fragile defense — which, need we remind you, conceded eight in three games — is unlikely to hold up against Benfica’s home firepower, form, and sheer class gap.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Benfica

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Benfica Victory

• Odds Range: 1.03-1.15

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.52-1.74

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. We’ll be back later this week as we gear up for the first round of the English League Cup that’s kicking off this week.

Until the, enjoy the football.