Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a packed schedule ahead of us over the next couple of days as the final leg of Round 3 takes place in both the Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification games take place. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The complete match schedule for this week’s Europa games. 🗓️

• Our top three Europa qualification picks for this week. ✅

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This week, we’ve got a busy schedule of matches coming up in the Europa League and Europa Conference League qualifications. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Europa League Schedule (Qualification Round 3)

13 Aug Thursday

• 19:00 — AC Omonia vs Lincoln Red Imps

• 19:00 — Besiktas vs Hradec Kralove

• 19:00 — CS Universitatea Craiova vs Kuopio PS

• 19:00 — Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC

• 19:00 — Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg

• 19:30 — KI Klaksvik vs Lech Poznan

• 19:30 — Vikingur Reykjavik vs FC Thun

• 20:00 — CSKA vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

• 20:30 — Anderlecht vs PAOK FC

• 20:30 — Rangers vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

• 20:45 — Hearts vs Benfica

• 21:00 — FK Egnatia vs Shamrock Rovers

Europa Conference League Schedule (Qualification Round 3)

12 Aug Wednesday

• 18:00 — Copenhagen vs Debreceni VSC

• 18:00 — GKS Katowice vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

• 18:00 — Rapid Wien vs Paide Linnameeskond

13 Aug Thursday

• 17:00 — FC Tobol vs Partizan Belgrade

• 18:00 — Qarabag FK vs Dynamo Kiev

• 18:00 — Flora Tallinn vs Inter Club d’Escaldes

• 18:00 — Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

• 18:30 — Rigas Futbola Skola vs Baumit Jablonec

• 19:00 — Dinamo Minsk vs Braga

• 19:00 — Dunajska Streda vs Twente

• 19:00 — FC Midtjylland vs Bohemian

• 19:00 — FC Nordsjaelland vs Valur

• 19:00 — Hammarby IF vs Rakow Czestochowa

• 19:00 — Maxline Vitebsk vs FK Borac Banja Luka

• 19:00 — Tromso vs CFR Cluj

• 19:30 — NSI Runavik vs Lugano

• 19:30 — Vaduz vs Inter Turku

• 20:00 — FK Shkendija vs Hibernian

• 20:00 — KF Drita vs Tre Fiori

• 20:00 — St Gallen vs FC Sheriff Tiraspol

• 20:15 — FC Sion vs FC Noah

• 20:30 — Austria Wien vs Beitar Jerusalem

• 20:30 — Gent vs IFK Goteborg

• 20:30 — Gyori ETO vs Riga FC

• 20:30 — Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki

• 20:45 — Shelbourne vs Ajax

• 21:00 — FK Dinamo Tirana vs FK Auda

• 21:00 — HNK Hadjuk Split vs VMFD Zalgiris

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Rapid Wien vs Paide Linnameeskond
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Wednesday 12 August; 18:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Rapid’s first-leg aggregate lead is 4-1 after destroying Paide at home.

  • Rapid has won every competitive match they’ve played this season (three Conference League qualifiers plus their opening Austrian Bundesliga run).

  • Austria’s UEFA country coefficient (25.25) dwarfs Estonia’s (7.04).

• CXSports says: Rapid Wien return for their home leg in this fixture with a massive 4-1 lead from the first leg. And it’s not like that was a fluke result, either. From seven games played this season, they’ve got seven victories. Meanwhile, Paide’s only real calling card is a scoring rate of 2.05 goals per game in their domestic Estonian Meistriliiga. And that’s perfectly respectable, until you take it on the road in Europe — those stats were assembled in a league sitting around 48th in UEFA’s rankings, which is a far cry from the Austrian top flight which is in 19th on the same scale. So it comes as no surprise that Paide’s decent league form shrank to a single goal scored and four conceded in the first leg, despite the fact that they were playing at home.
  
  So what should we expect here? Well, let’s start with the simple fact that Rapid barely even needs to make an effort in this game. With a three-goal cushion, they can simply sit back and let Paide over-commit (which Paide absolutely must do if they want a shot at getting through) and pick off the opportunities that will inevitably crop up once a significantly inferior Paide starts playing fast and loose. Then, we’ve also got the fact that Rapid’s playing this one at home, bringing yet another advantage that could see this one turn into an even more crushing defeat than the least.
  
  With that said, we don’t really expect the hosts to fully commit to this one — they simply don’t need to. As such, the more likely scenario is to see them score inside the opening half-hour to kill any faint hope Paide may still be clinging onto, and then cruise through into the play-off round.
  
  3-0 on the night, roughly 7-1 on aggregate. Paide will likely land a punch — their scoring habit is stubborn enough that a consolation wouldn’t shock me, which would make it something like 3-1 — but the tie itself was decided in Estonia, and a comfortable home evening for Rapid is the only sensible call. Expect the hosts to control possession, score early to kill any faint Estonian hope that might still be remaining, and then cruise for the rest of the game.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Rapid Wien

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Rapid Wien Victory

• Odds Range: 1.07-1.13

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.62

⚽ AC Omonia vs Lincoln Red Imps
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Thursday 13 August; 19:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • This one’s tied up on aggregate (1-1) with Omonia set to play the decider at home.

  • Cyprus (Omonia) has a UEFA coefficient of 33.194 (15th of 55) vs Gibraltar’s (Lincoln) 6.875 (49th of 55).

  • Omonia took a stronger-ranked side (Kairat, 38th) to penalties over 210 minutes; Lincoln lost 3-0 on aggregate to a similar-tier side (Mjallby) and failed to score across both legs of that tie.

• CXSports says: Lincoln Red Imps — the reigning champions of Gibraltar, a territory ranked 49th of 55 UEFA nations — did a half decent job in the first leg when they held AC Omonia to 1-1 draw in their home leg of this fixture. So that’s some good news. Although, that good news more or less stops there.
  
  So let’s start with the obvious — Omonia are the champions of Cyprus, a league ranked 15th of 55 and worth nearly five times Gibraltar’s UEFA coefficient (33.194 to 6.875). And they’re playing this one at home — the ground where they wrapped up their domestic title 18 points clear of second-placed AEK Larnaca. So Linoln’s home advantage that helped it to a 1-1 result in the first leg will be gone.
  
  We can also see what each side did against comparable opposition in earlier rounds this summer. Omonia took Kairat Almaty — a Kazakh club from an association ranked 38th, higher than anyone Lincoln has beaten — all the way to a penalty shootout over two legs, only just losing 6-5 after 210 minutes of level football. Lincoln, on the other hand, met Mjallby of Sweden and were promptly dismantled 3-0 on aggregate.
  
  With that said, Omonia’s attacking output has been modest in Europe — single goals in wins over Kairat and the draw at Lincoln. So we probably shouldn’t expect this one to turn into a sloppy goal fest. Rather, this will likely be a more modest and controlled game.
  
  Of course, while Omonia probably won’t be launching any fireworks here, they still need to come out on top here if they want a clear path through. However, as the far better resourced side, there’s a good chance they’ll get that result by doing nothing more than the most ordinary of things competently in front of their own crowd. As such, we expect Omonia to find the one or two goals and Lincoln fall behind.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for AC Omonia

Bet Option #1

• Bet: AC Omonia Victory

• Odds Range: 1.07-1.15

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.27-1.46

⚽ Shelbourne vs Ajax
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 13 August; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Ajax had a dominating 30-3 shot-count advantage in the first leg and walk into this leg with a 2-goal margin (3-1 on aggregate).

  • These teams have met exactly once in the past (last week). There is no further head-to-head history.

  • Ajax’s “disappointing” 62 league goals last season came in the highest-scoring major league in Europe, and only one team conceded fewer than they did. Shelbourne’s 1.44 goals per game was in a division roughly a goal-per-game weaker.

• CXSports says: Domestically, Shelbourne’s an unremarkable mid-table League of Ireland side — fifth of ten, scoring 1.44 goals a game in a division that runs about a goal weaker than the one Ajax was in last year. And, they arrive here two goals down after having been outshot massively (30-3) in the first leg. Now, to have any hope of going through, they must at least draw against a four-time European Cup winner (Ajax). And, they must do so while their best player (Harry Wood) is off.
  
  Now, of course, none of that means Shelbourne can’t put up a fight here. After all, one of football’s great levellers is the venue. And Shelbourne’s playing this one at home on a tight pitch with a loud, almost too-close-for-comfort crowd. And let’s not forget that Shelbourne did manage to fire off a goal in response last week, despite the fact they were outshot 10:1 by Ajax.
  
  With that said, while Shelbourne’s home crowd could make a difference here, the basic numbers still don’t really add up for the hosts. This is an Ajax side whose worst recent season still produced the second-strongest defence in a league that’s averaging 3.18 goals a game. And they’ve only got to fend off a Shelbourne attack that’s not even managing a goal-and-a-half per match at a lower level.
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, Shelbourne, cheered on by a packed ground will probably have a moment in the sun here — probably early, probably fuelled more by adrenaline than by superior skill and tactics. And, they might even manage to use that moment to score. But the reality here is simple — Ajax are too deep, too well-drilled, and too far ahead on to be genuinely troubled. And let’s not forget that they’re a team that racked up ten times as many shots in the first leg, so expect Ajax to answer any blow Shelbourne might deliver with ease.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Ajax

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Ajax Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.20

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.27-1.42

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to all the action coming up this weekend.

Until then, enjoy the football.