Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

FIFA’s been making headlines over the last week or so. And it’s not for the reason you might be thinking…

What’s really got people talking is World Cup tickets. Specifically, allocations (England basically got none) and prices (up 500% over 2022 prices). And let’s not forget about the small 30% “commission” on ticket resales they announced in October. (Guess they gotta pay for that gaudy trophy they cooked up somehow…)

Lucky for you, we’re nothing like FIFA. That means, this week’s edition of What Are the Odds? remains 100% free. Here’s what’s ahead.

• The best English Premier League odds and predictions for this weekend. 🦵⚽

• A little trivia about a very famous prize. 🏟️🏅

• Why a “peace” mindset is also an “everything” mindset. 🔥✨

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⚽ Newcastle vs Chelsea
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Honestly, this game’s not a major priority for us — too close. But, with that said, there’s not much else happening in the Premier League in this time slot…

• CXSports says: Newcastle is a mid-table side with a thoroughly mid-table performance. They currently score about 1.4 goals per match, and concede around 1.25 per game. That’s okay, but it isn’t exactly the mark of a team that’s going to cause major headaches for Chelsea, particularly given their attack is averaging close to 1.7+ goals per match while keeping concessions under 1 goal per game. Now, that’s not to say Chelsea holds a clear edge here — the gap here is small enough that game-day variables may well flip things in Newcastle’s favor. But, if we had to pick one side and stick with it, Chelsea is our undeniable favorite here.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Chelsea

Option #1

• Bet: Chelsea Victory

• Odds Range: 2.30-2.71

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.41-1.60

⚽ Bournemouth vs Burnley
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: 

• CXSports says: Burnley’s season is like watching a trainwreck in slow motion. They’ve lost seven matches in a row ( historically bad run), they’re now six points shy of safety, and they’re conceding so fast that their goal difference is thoroughly negative (-15). With that said, Bournemouth's not exactly a wonderkid either. However, they’re decently above the “disaster” level Burnley’s currently at — their goal difference is barely negative (-2), their results are a slightly healthier mix (dead even split of victories, draws and losses), and they’ll be playing this one with the home advantage on their side. That should be enough to tilt the tables far enough in Bournemouth’s favor that a solid victory is definitely on the cards, even if it won’t be spectacular.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Bournemouth

Option #1

• Bet: Bournemouth Victory

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.52

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.25

⚽ Brighton vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s got a nice, solid double-chance play. Nothing flashy, of course, but sometimes that’s for the best.

• CXSports says: Sunderland has been nothing but a “good news” story this season, given their freshly-promoted status. Sure, they’re not dominating everyone, but they are doing a solid job of holding their own in the mid-table with decent stats and a solid mix of results (more victories than anything else). And, if you take away the whole “freshly-promoted squad does well” good-news story, Brighton’s season is looking quite similar. Now, theoretically, Brighton still holds an edge here. Their stats at home are slightly better — enough to matter. However, the difference isn’t so great that we’d be willing to back them unconditionally — this one could very easily finish up in a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 draw or 2-1 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Brighton / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.19

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.83

⚽ Man City vs West Ham
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Even at the lower end of the range, the odds on City in this game represent really solid value.

• CXSports says: Man City’s attack this year is absolutely ferocious — after 16 games, they’ve racked up a massive 38 goals without really conceding more than anyone else (except Arsenal…). West Ham, on the other hand, is conceding more than just about everyone else in the league (32 conceded to date), and they’re doing so without anything even remotely resembling a decent offense to make up for it (19 goals scored). That already puts them at a huge disadvantage. The fact they’re playing this one on the road just adds one more nail to what was already a thoroughly sealed coffin. This one goes to City.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.24

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.19-1.37

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

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Before FIFA invented the Peace Prize, there was a little-known organization that had been awarding its own primitive version of it for over 100 years.

That organization is, of course, the Nobel Prize organization.

Let’s find out how much you know about them with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: The Nobel Peace Prize was first awarded in 1901. Who was the first winner?

• A: Frédéric Passy

• B: Henry Dunant

• C: There were multiple winners

• D: All of the above

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Wolves vs Brentford
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Brentford’s got a very big chance of coming out on top here — much bigger than the odds suggest.

• CXSports says: The best way to sum up Brentford’s season so far would be to say it’s been “mediocre, but stable.” They’ve carved out some stability in the lower mid-table, managed to keep their goals scored vs conceded somewhat in balance, and, even if their last five games have been a bit below average, they’ve still managed to deliver an okay set of results. But if we now compare that with the Wolves, suddenly Brentford starts looking “brilliant and unstoppable”. After all, which other side has conceded 35 goals to date? (No one except the Wolves.) And which other side hasn’t even managed to rack up a double-digit goal tally this season? (No one, except the Wolves). And which other side has failed to secure even a single victory all season? (You already know the answer…). Long story short, the Wolves stand no chance in any game, and thus, Brentford gets the edge by default.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 1.85-2.12

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.34

⚽ Tottenham vs Liverpool
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With momentum and history on their side, Liverpool’s looking like a solid pick in this one.

• CXSports says: Look at the last 10 Premier League H2Hs between these two — Tottenham have only beaten Liverpool once while losing 7. That’s a brutal record which tends to suggest that even Tottenham’s theoretical home advantage won’t add up to much here. And if we throw in the old “momentum” consideration into the equation, things start looking even better for Liverpool — in their last five, Tottenham has 1W, 1D, and 3L, while Liverpool has 2W, 2D, and just 1L. That gives the visitors a solid edge coming into this, even if both sides look “similar on paper” in most other respects.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.70-2.12

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.42-1.60

⚽ Everton vs Arsenal
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: When Arsenal takes on a mid-table squad, then the only logical thing to do is pay attention, especially with odds like these.

• CXSports says: If we’re going to be fair, then we’d need to say that Everton are by no means pushovers — they’ve held Arsenal to draws before (1-1 in April) and have shown they can grind out results against more “elite” squads on numerous occasions. But just because they aren’t pushovers, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be much of a challenge for the current Arsenal squad — a squad that’s been scoring at a decent clip (1.9 goals per game) while keeping goals conceded to an absolute minimum (0.6 conceded per game). And given Everton’s only managing about 1.1/1.2 goals scored/conceded per match, it’s very unlikely they’ll be able to “outgun” the Gunners in this one.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.69

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.37

⚽ Leeds vs Crystal Palace
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 20 December; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While we’re not quite willing to go with Palace as a sure thing, the double chance play here looks exceptionally solid.

• CXSports says: If you look at the long-term head-to-head history between these two, Leeds looks slightly better — in 19 games, Leeds has 9W, 4D, and 7L. But, if you shrink the timeline down from decades to just the last few games, suddenly Palace emerges as the clear favorite — they took the victory in the last two and drew the two games before that. Then, we also can’t help but notice that Palace is just doing better overall in the EPL this season, notably in terms of their positive goal average (+5) while Leeds is deeply negative (-10). In other words, while history might scream “this one’s even,” recent results say otherwise. Of course, that’s not to say ancient history means nothing, and the fact Leeds is playing this at home means they might cause complications, although we still expect to see Palace come out on top.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Crystal Palace

Option #1

• Bet: Crystal Palace Victory

• Odds Range: 2.05-2.72

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Draw / Crystal Palace)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.51

Make your sportsbook work for you!

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Henry Dunant. Among other things, he was the co-founder of the Red Cross and one of the first ever Nobel Peace Prize winners.

Here’s one of his principles.

Moral of the story?

This quote has a literal meaning — the way Dunant originally intended it. Help your fellow humans without asking who they are.

But there’s a deeper principle going on here. It’s the idea of holding yourself to a standard, without making excuses or exceptions.

• If you want to be charitable, don’t condition your charity on the color of someone’s hair.

• If you want to be disciplined, don’t condition your discipline on the mood you woke up in.

• If you want to lead, don’t condition your leadership on the popularity of the path.

You get the point.

Want to learn more about Henry Dunant?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Nobel Prize Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [D] — “All of the above. The first Noble Prize was shared by Frédéric Passy and Henry Dunant. Discover more trivia like this with the Nobel Prize Trivia Quiz.