Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Another day, another FIFA controversy. This time, it’s all about the new hydration rule. But we’ll save the details for later.

For now, let’s take a look at what’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• What’s up with FIFA’s hydration rule? 🥤

• Today’s full match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick for today. ✅

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🇪🇸 Spain vs. 🇨🇻 Cape Verde

• Time: 12:00 ET

• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

• Location: Atlanta

🇧🇪 Belgium vs. 🇪🇬 Egypt

• Time: 15:00 ET

• Venue: Lumen Field

• Location: Seattle

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia vs. 🇺🇾 Uruguay

• Time: 18:00 ET

• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

• Location: Miami Gardens

🇮🇷 Iran vs. 🇳🇿 New Zealand

• Time: 21:00 ET

• Venue: SoFi Stadium Inglewood

• Location: California

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

By now, you’ve probably all heard the latest fan gripe with this year’s World Cup. Heck, you might even be one of the fans complaining about it.

Yes, we’re talking about FIFA’s little “hydration break” rule.

For those of you who missed the drama, fans are saying FIFA’s hydration break rule is (apparently) nothing more than a cynical excuse to split the game into quarters for the purpose of selling more ad slots.

The argument here is that the hydration rule is clearly more about commercial interests than about player welfare since it’s mandated at all games, regardless of conditions. The big case that’s getting all the attention here is the Germany vs Curacao match, where hydration breaks were still mandated despite the fact they were playing in an air conditioned stadium.

On the face of it, that makes a lot of sense. Why enforce a “player welfare” rule in matches where the cause for concern — the heat — isn’t even a concern? The problem is, in their attempt to show why these hydration breaks are dumb, many fans seem to be making a pretty good case for why the blanket hydration break rule should exist.

To pick up on the argument, some fans are now saying that the hydration rule is having an obvious impact on the rhythm of the game. To quote one write up of the most heavily-used example that we’ve seen, “The breaks are tangibly impacting games, too. One of the stories of the World Cup was unfolding when Curaçao found an historic equaliser against Germany and briefly had the four-time champions on the ropes, only for the quarter-time break to completely alter the momentum of the match.”

Now, maybe this is true. Or maybe it isn’t. In either case, we’re not sure the Germany vs Curacao game is the best way to make a point — it’s not like Germany thrashed Curacao 7-1 simply because some 3-minute hydration break “completely alter[ed] the rhythm of the match”. Germany is one of the world’s great soccer nations, whereas Curacao probably wouldn’t have even made it to this year’s world cup were it not for FIFA’s expanded 48-team format. So that match was probably ending in a similar result no matter what alterations to the rhythm may or may not have taken place.

But let’s grant the argument for a moment and accept that the hydration rule is having an impact on the game. Doesn’t that make the case for the universality of the rule? That is, shouldn’t all games be played on the same terms?

It also begs the question — what’s the alternative?

Chances are, no one’s going to argue hydration breaks shouldn’t be a thing in a summer tournament where players will be exposed to extreme heat. So the only real alternative is discretionary breaks. But that brings with it a whole host of complications — the cloud cover, the relative humidity, the wind chill factor; etc. And with those complications comes other potential accusations — that home organizers manipulated the conditions, that one team benefited because they pressed harder earlier, etc.

Of course, none of this is to say FIFA is perfect. Far from it.

It’s also not to say that broadcasters aren’t loving the opportunity to air more ads. (Although, not all broadcasters are taking advantage — Telemundo is one good example.)

And we’re also not saying that FIFA doesn’t have at least some commercial incentives here. After all, if broadcasters have more opportunities to sell ad slots (particularly highly-lucrative mid-game slots), then there’s good reason to think broadcasters would bid higher to win broadcast rights.

What we are trying to say, however, is that all the energy pouring into the “hydration break farce” might be better directed elsewhere.

After all, if the point of the world cup to find the best team in the world, then we’re still going to find the best team in the world… so long as teams play each game on the same terms.

⚽ Belgium vs Egypt
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Monday 15 June; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The head-to-head history favors Egypt. The rest of the stats say Belgium. If you can trust the rest of the stats, then this is a good chance to take advantage of some better odds on Belgium thanks to some people’s overconfidence in the head-to-head history.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Belgium is currently #10 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Egypt is currently #30 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Egypt theoretically has the head-to-head advantage, with victories in 2 of the 3 matches in this fixture.
    

• CXSports says: A bird’s eye view of the head-to-head history in this fixture immediately suggests Egypt should be strong in this match. For the record, they’ve got 2 victories in 3 games against Belgium, with the most recent match ending Belgium 1-2 Egypt. What’s most curious about this is that Belgium was the World #2 at the time (late 2022), while Egypt was all the way back in #39.

  Of course, that little point of curiosity tends to suggest that something’s not quite “right” here — how’s a clearly superior team (insofar as FIFA rankings are concerned) losing to an inferior team?
  
  To answer that, we need a little context. So let’s start with the most recent head-to-head. That was an international friendly, and there are some signs in the stats that Belgium wasn’t really bringing its A-game. For instance, despite holding 67% of the possession, they only took 2 shots on goal. So either Egypt’s defense was holding back the world #2 on its own merits (possible, but unlikely). Or, Belgium wasn’t really trying.
  
  Now for the other victory Egypt has over Belgium. That one also needs a little context. Namely, the fact that it took place all the way back in 2005. At that time, Egypt was still hovering around #30. But Belgium, on the other hand, was in the midst of one of the rougher periods in its history — a period where it was oscillating between 50th-60th in the FIFA rankings.
  
  All of that to say that the head-to-head history probably means basically nothing here, even as a small psychological boost for Egypt. Chances are, they know the context of their past victories all too well. And, even if they don’t, there’s a good chance that Belgium’s current form is intimidating enough to offset it.
  
  In Belgium’s last 5 games against all teams, they’ve got 4W/1D/0L with an aggregate of 20-3. That’s an average of 4 goals per game while only conceding 0.6 per game.
  
  Of course, Egypt’s last 5 aren’t exactly a disaster — 2W/2D/1L with an aggregate of 6-2. So, at least in defense, Egypt looks like it might be able to match Belgium. However, when one side’s scoring at more than 3 times the rate of the other, it’s hard to see the path to victory for the lower scoring side.
  
  As such, we expect this one to end in Belgium's favor, even if it’s not a total thrashing. Ultimately, Egypt probably has the defensive chops to make this difficult for Belgium, and they also have enough counterattacking talent to score. But at the rate Belgium’s currently finding the net, there’s a good chance they’ll end this one in front.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Belgium

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Belgium Victory

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.68

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.67-2.00

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Tomorrow, we’ve got a slightly quieter day with just three matches scheduled, starting with France vs. Senegal, then Iraq vs. Norway, and finally Argentina vs. Algeria.

But just because the schedule’s quiet, doesn’t mean we’re going to stay quiet, too. So keep your eyes peeled for tomorrow’s edition.