Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s Friday. And that means one thing — another massive weekend packed with football action from the Premier League. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This weekend’s full Premier League and La Liga match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this weekend’s Premier League and La Liga matches. ✅

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We’ve got a packed schedule of top-flight matches coming up this weekend across the Premier League and La Liga. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🇪🇸 La Liga

Friday 11 September

• 21:00 — Sevilla vs Valencia

Saturday 12 September

• 14:00 — Racing Santander vs Alaves

• 16:15 — Osasuna vs Espanyol

• 18:30 — Athletic Bilbao vs Elche

• 21:00 — Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Sunday 13 September

• 14:00 — Celta Vigo vs Malaga

• 16:15 — Levante vs Barcelona

• 18:30 — Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna

• 21:00 — Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

Monday 14 September

• 21:00 — Villarreal vs Real Betis

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League

Saturday 12 September

• 16:00 — Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

• 16:00 — Bournemouth vs Brentford

• 16:00 — Chelsea vs Hull City

• 16:00 — Crystal Palace vs Ipswich

• 16:00 — Liverpool vs Fulham

• 18:30 — Tottenham vs Everton

• 21:00 — Sunderland vs Arsenal

Sunday 13 September

• 15:00 — Coventry City vs Brighton

• 17:30 — Man Utd vs Man City

Monday 14 September

• 21:00 — Leeds vs Newcastle

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Chelsea vs Hull City
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 12 September; 16:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Hull City’s conceded 0 goals from 3 games, however they’ve done so against 5.05 expected goals against with 54 shots faced, 32 of which were inside the penalty area. Their goalkeeper, Konstantinos Tzolakis, has saved two goals more than an average keeper would have.

  • Chelsea hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 19 Premier League matches and has conceded seven goals in its three matches this season.

  • Chelsea is undefeated in this fixture, with 12 wins, 2 draws, and an aggregate score of 33-5. The last time these two met (Feb. 2026), Chelsea took a 4-0 clean sheet victory.

• CXSports says: Early-season football stats have a habit of lying at times. And Hull City’s are probably one of the best examples of that. Right now, they’re in 3rd place with 7 points and 0 goals conceded, which sounds totally respectable. But, if you look a little closer at the stats, there’s clear evidence that it might all be a mirage.
  
  While it’s true Hull hasn’t conceded a single goal so far this season, they’ve also faced 45 shots in three games, 32 of which were taken from inside the penalty area, and 5.05 expected goals against. Meanwhile their goalkeeper, Konstantinos Tzolakis, has averaged two goals saved above what an average keeper manages. To translate that into plain English — Hull’s defense is leaky, and the only thing keeping it looking respectable right now is a one-man-band having the best three best weeks of his goalkeeping career. And that’s despite the fact Hull spend 26.5% of their time in a deep defensive block (the 2nd highest share in the division) while registering 18.8 passes per defensive action (the 19th worst). To translate that to English — they’re not even contesting the ball. Instead, they’re retreating and praying (and not doing a very good job of it, either).
  
  We probably also shouldn’t ignore the teams Hull’s been playing either, which makes the 0-goals-conceded stat even less impressive. Take its goalless Aston Villa draw from last week, for instance — Villa hasn’t scored a league goal against any team all season. So, in reality, Hull’s neat-looking goals conceded number probably has a pretty good chance of suddenly getting quite ugly once they face off against a Chelsea side averaging 2.67 goals a game.
  
  On the positive side for Hull, Chelsea isn’t a picture of perfection. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in 19 straight Premier League matches. And this season alone they’ve conceded seven goals in three games (2.33 per game). They’ve also failed to win any of their last four home league games against promoted opposition: three draws and a defeat. So who knows…? Maybe Hull might be able to sit in their block as they normally do, grab something from a set piece or a counter (which is how they nabbed their 3 three goals this season) and finish up this game with an equal share of the points. Maybe.
  
  With that said, that’s unlikely. Chelsea’s offense, for one, is positively vicious when compared to anything Hull has faced (and barely survived) this season — 5.56 xG from 48 shots (33 of which were inside the box), with nine clear-cut chances. Then there’s also the fact Hull has never defeated Chelsea, with their last attempt ending in a 0-4 loss at home. And this time, they’re on the road.
  
  As such, this one looks like a pretty clear one to call — Hull’s “impressive” defense likely crumbles here, and Chelsea takes this one with ease.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Chelsea

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Chelsea Victory

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.28

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.27-1.45

⚽ Liverpool vs Fulham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 12 September; 16:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Liverpool’s undefeated and has scored 2 goals in all four matches since Andoni Iraola took the reins, while Fulham’s conceding 2.33 goals a game.

  • Fulham has averaged 61% possession across its three Premier League games this season, but still lost every single one of those games.

  • The last five Liverpool-Fulham league meetings have produced 19 goals — 3.80 per game.

• CXSports says: Fulham’s got a problem. So far this season, they’ve averaged 61% possession while finishing each of those games as the loser. Or, said another way, while they might be able to take possession of the ball, they’re not really doing much with it once they have it. Take Sunderland, for instance — they held 58% possession and still put zero shots on goal. And if that wasn’t damning enough, they’ve also 2.33 per match, despite their opponents having a much smaller share of the possession.
  
  Of course, Liverpool hasn’t exactly had a picture of perfection right now, either. In fact, across their last three Premier League games at home (which includes the tail end of last season), they haven’t taken a single victory (their longest winless run at home in a long, long time). And their results this season haven’t exactly been all that convincing, either. Against Newcastle, they needed a desperate 90th-minute last-chance goal to salvage a draw. And a similar story played out against Nottingham Forest — an 82nd-minute goal is what saved the day (that is, brought the game to a draw).
  
  Of course, not every game has been a near-miss. Liverpool did beat Ipswich 2-0, with both goals coming inside of nine minutes. And then they followed that up with a Champions League victory over Atletico Madrid (2-1). And we also can’t ignore the fact that Liverpool has scored a consistent two goals in every single match since Andoni Iraola has taken over. So there’s some consistency. And that consistency is probably going to make them a real threat against a Fulham side that’s currently leaking 2.33 per game.
  
  As for what all of this means, we suspect this one’s going to be a reasonably high-scoring game. Not only for the fact that a high-scoring Liverpool’s taking on a high-concession Fulham — the last five league games between these two have also produced 19 goals at an average 3.80 per game. And, given each side’s current form, we also suspect the result will follow the history, as well. That history — Liverpool’s undefeated in its last 5 at home in this fixture, with 80% of those games ending in a win.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Liverpool

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.31-.50

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.49

⚽ Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
🏟️ La Liga
📅 Saturday 12 September; 19:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Rayo hasn’t won a league match at Madrid since January 1996.

  • Real Madrid is averaging 4.0 goals per game at home this season; Rayo’s conceding 3.5 per game on the road.

  • The last 5 head-to-heads between these two ended with Real Madrid taking 2 victories, and 3 ending in a draw. The draws all came at Rayo.

• CXSports says: Real Madrid are averaging 2.5 goals a game this season while only conceding just 0.75. And when they’re playing at home, the stats look even better — in two home games, they’ve scored eight and conceded just once (4.0 scored and 0.5 conceded on average). Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano, when playing on the road, have taken zero points from two away trips while conceding seven goals (3.5 per game) and only score 3 in return (1.5 per game). And now, they’re arriving without their leading scorer Jorge de Frutos (who’s currently suspended) or winger Fran Pérez (also suspended). And that’s not all — their first-choice goalkeeper Augusto Batalla is also out (injured), while their centre-back options have been thinned out by injuries to Luiz Felipe and Marash Kumbulla.
  
  With that said, there is one ray of sunshine for Rayo. Three of the last 5 meetings between these two have ended in draws, with the other two ending in victories for Madrid. And while that does favor Real Madrid, Rayo can at least hold its head up high — the two losses it has suffered were only by a single goal. So there’s a case to be made here that Rayo’s a sid that can be annoying to play against for Madrid.
  
  Rayo can also point to the fact that it has at least scored in every league game this season (too bad it’s conceded more — 10 goals conceded against seven goals scored). And finally, they can also take a little comfort in the fact that Madrid hasn’t played perfectly, either — they lost 1-0 at Real Betis last weekend, which finally ended their 11-game unbeaten run.
  
  So how does this play out? Well, if Rayo keeps being Rayo, then there’s a good chance they will score. The only problem is Madrid’s got one hell of an attack (especially at home) that will probably cause more problems for Rayo’s leaky defense than it has answers for up the pointy end.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Real Madrid

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Real Madrid Victory

• Odds Range: 1.07-1.15

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.81-2.08

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back next week as we look ahead to the upcoming mid-week Europa League matches.

Until then, enjoy the football.