Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

With a pause this week in Europe’s big (men’s) continental leagues, we’re doing something a little different. Today, we’re taking a look at some of the competitions we tend to neglect around here. Specifically, the Women’s Champions League, and Brazil’s Serie A. So let’s get into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• Full Women’s Champions League and Serie A (Brazil) match schedules. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from these games. ✅

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This week, we’ve got a nice series of matches coming up across the Brazilian Serie A and the Women’s Champions League competitions. (Note: all dates and times are in CET)

🇧🇷 Serie A (Brazil)

Wednesday 28 October

• 23:30 — Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense

• 23:30 — Fluminense vs Internacional

• 23:30 — Santos vs Palmeiras

Thursday 29 October

• 01:30 — Bahia vs Sao Paulo

• 01:30 — Clube Do Remo vs Botafogo RJ

• 23:30 — Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro

Friday 30 October

• 00:00 — Vasco Da Gama RJ vs Flamengo RJ

• 01:30 — Gremio RS vs Athletico Paranaense

Saturday 31 October

• 00:00 — Corinthians vs Mirassol SP

• 20:00 — Coritiba PR vs Vitoria BA

🇪🇺 Champions League (Women)

Wednesday 28 October

• 18:45 — Bayern Munich Women vs Real Madrid Women

• 18:45 — Chelsea Women vs AS Roma Women

• 18:45 — Servette Women vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

• 21:00 — Arsenal Women vs SL Benfica Women

• 21:00 — Arsenal Women vs CF Benfica Women

• 21:00 — Olympique Lyon Women vs Inter Milan Women

Thursday 29 October

• 18:45 — Paris FC Women vs Hacken Women

• 18:45 — USC Landhaus Women vs Juventus Women

• 21:00 — HB Koge Women vs Barcelona Women

• 21:00 — Manchester City Women vs Paris Saint-Germain Women

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Arsenal Women vs SL Benfica Women
🏟️ Champions League (Women)
📅 Wednesday 28 October; 21:00 (CET)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • In two seasons of this league phase, Benfica’s played five clubs from England, France, Spain and Germany. They won none of those games and were outscored 11-2.

  • Over the same two league phases, Arsenal has 16 points and a +6 goal difference to Benfica’s 5 points and -9 goal difference.

  • Arsenal’s only lost two of their nine games this season, and both defeats were away to heavyweights — Chelsea and Manchester City (the two clubs at the top of the EPL table).

• CXSports says: Fun fact. Benfica hasn’t won a single game against anyone of Arsenal’s caliber in this competition. Over two seasons here, they’ve have faced five clubs from England, France, Spain and Germany. And all they have to show for it is a single draw and two goals scored. Meanwhile, across those games, they conceded 11 goals (2.2 goals per game). And coincidentally, Arsenal were one of those five teams, and they won 2-0 in Lisbon almost exactly 1 year ago.
  
  Since then, the gap hasn’t exactly closed either. Across both league phases Arsenal have taken 16 points from eight games while scoring itself to a +6 goal difference, while Benfica’s only managed 5 points and a -9 goal difference.
  
  And yes, Benfica did win 2-1 away to Juventus last month in La Liga, which theoretically offers some hope (or, at least, suggests they might not be completely hopeless). But let’s keep that in perspective — that was one win in eight games, and it came against the 9th-placed side on the table. Meanwhile, their next elite opponent following that game, Bayern Munich, beat them 3-0 in Lisbon just eight days later.
  
  Now, of course, there is a bit of an “Arsenal is in crisis” story doing the rounds at the moment. However, we think it’s a little overcooked. Sure, they did go five league games without a win for the first time in the club’s history. However, only Chelsea and Manchester City have beaten them in nine games this season, and both of those games were away. So realistically speaking, we can probably say Arsenal does have a real problem with goals (they have ten in nine games, and in the league they average 1.0 a game against a league norm of 1.59). However, that probably means this ends in a modest 1-to-2 goal winning margin rather than offering Benfica any real hope of winning here.
  
  As such, we see this one as having a high chance of ending in Arsenal’s favor, but with a low chance of any particular scoreline occurring — while Arsenal might struggle to score, Benfica struggles to defend, so let’s see how that dynamic plays out.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Arsenal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.11-1.22

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.05-1.11

⚽ Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense
🏟️ Serie A (Women)
📅 Wednesday 28 October; 23:30 (CET)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Chapecoense have the worst defence in the league (63 conceded 31 games, 12 more than any other side).

  • Chapecoense have just one win in 16 away games this season and have been outscored on the road 29-11.

  • Bragantino are a home side, taking 1.6 points a game at home (against 1.0 away) while scoring 24 goals in their 15 home games.

• CXSports says: This one’s easy — Chapecoense are the worst team in the entire division, and they are even worse when they’re on the road. They have taken just 7 points from 16 matches while conceding 2.03 goals a game. (For comparison, the average side in Serie A concedes 1.33.) And as for their eight away trips to clubs that are now in the top ten, they only managed to produce two draws and a 14-5 goal tally while suffering six defeats. And Bragantino currently sit in tenth position, which makes that history quite relevant here. And the best part (for Bragantino) is that Bragantino’s playing this game at home, where they’re earned 24 of their 41 points in 15 games.
  
  Of course, that’s not to say Chapecoense are without a hope here. Indeed, they just beat Fluminense 2-1 on Saturday, and Fluminense are currently fifth. However, that might be more of an anomaly than something that’s actually repeatable — in the five games before that, Chapecoense took one point and conceded 12. And they have not won consecutive league games at any point this season. So that makes this isolated win look more like an exception than the rule.
  
  Still, there’s also the fact that Bragantino have just one win in its last six. Although we’d argue that it looks a little worse than it is. Three of those games were away defeats by one or two goals to the teams now first, second and sixth. And while they did lose a game at home, that was against a top-three side (Cruzeiro). Indeed, the only real danger here seems to be a pair of draws with Mirassol and Remo (15th and 19th).
  
  But let’s not lose sight of the fact that Chapecoense have repeatedly proven themselves to be the worst team in the league. So even if there’s some hope here for them, we still see that hope as being slim enough that this one probably ends in Bragantino’s favor.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Bragantino

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bragantino Victory

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.32

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.61-1.85

⚽ HB Koge Women vs Barcelona Women
🏟️ Champions League (Women)
📅 Thursday 29 October; 21:00 (CET)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Barcelona are the best team in this competition — they’re the reigning champions, and unbeaten in 13 (11 wins, 2 draws, 52-10 on aggregate).

  • Koge leak goals against stronger opposition — in five games against Denmark’s other top-four sides, they’ve conceded 11 (2.2 a game). They’ve also let in at least one goal in each of their last six matches.

  • In their own leagues, Barcelona dominates far harder in a far stronger league — they score 2.8 times their league’s average per game and concede a third of it, while Koge scores 1.6 times theirs and concede two-thirds.

• CXSports says: Barcelona will win this, and probably by a large margin. And it’s not hard to see why. They’re the reigning champions of Europe, they’re visiting a team that concedes to everybody (particularly to anybody decent). And Barcelona went through last season’s competition and the opening of this season without suffering a single defeat to anybody. And that run includes some tough competition, like Lyon (why they beat 4-0 in last season’s final), Paris FC (who they beat 5-2 this season) and Roma (6-0, also this season).
  
  As for Koge, while we might have been exaggerating when we said they concede to everyone, we weren’t exaggerating by much. In fact, in their last 8 games, they’ve kept just one clean sheet, and none in the last six. And just to give a small preview of what could be in store for this game, at home in September, Koge lost 6-4 to Nordsjælland — a team that’s second in Denmark. So, if the second-best side in Europe’s 13th-ranked league can score six in Koge, then arguably the best side in Europe is also going to score plenty.
  
  Now, none of that’s to say Koge completely hopeless. Overall, they’re not bad — they currently sit on top of their domestic league, and sit eighth in this competition’s standings. However,  Look at how. However, those numbers don’t exactly carry over to this game all that well. For instance, their best Champions League result (a 5-1 win) came against Servette (who are bottom and have shipped 13 goals in two games). And their domestic lead looks a little less impressive once you put their league numbers up against Barcelona’s. Koge outscore Danish opponents 1.6 to 1 against the league average; Barcelona outscore Spanish opponents 2.8 to 1. Spain’s league is also rated more than four times stronger by UEFA.
  
  As such, expect this one to play out in a similar fashion to Barcelona’s last three away trips in this competition — that is, Barcelona will probably score freely while leaving little room for Koge to respond.

• Score prediction: 0-4 for Barcelona

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Barcelona Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.03

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.30

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to the upcoming action across Europe’s top flight domestic competitions.

Until then, enjoy the football.