Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, we’ve got a ton of great action coming up as the first round of the English League Cup gets underway.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This weekend’s ful English League Cup match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three English League Cup picks for this weekend. ✅

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This weekend, we’ve got a massive lineup of English League Cup matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Friday 07 August

• 20:45 — Wolves vs Port Vale

• 20:45 — Wycombe Wanderers vs Stevenage

• 21:00 — Middlesbrough vs Wrexham

Saturday 08 August

• 14:00 — Cambridge United vs Barnet

• 15:00 — Queens Park Rangers vs Millwall

• 16:00 — AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County

• 16:00 — Barnsley vs Wigan

• 16:00 — Bradford City vs Rochdale AFC

• 16:00 — Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough United

• 16:00 — Bromley vs Reading

• 16:00 — Burnley vs Notts County

• 16:00 — Burton Albion vs Blackburn Rovers

• 16:00 — Cardiff City vs Swindon Town

• 16:00 — Crewe Alexandra vs Accrington Stanley

• 16:00 — Derby County vs Lincoln City

• 16:00 — Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield

• 16:00 — Gillingham vs Luton Town

• 16:00 — Grimsby Town vs Blackpool

• 16:00 — Leicester City vs Northampton

• 16:00 — Leyton Orient vs Oxford United

• 16:00 — Norwich vs MK Dons

• 16:00 — Preston North End vs Huddersfield Town

• 16:00 — Salford City vs Shrewsbury Town

• 16:00 — Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers

• 16:00 — Stockport County vs Doncaster Rovers

• 16:00 — Stoke City vs Oldham

• 16:00 — Swansea City vs Birmingham

• 16:00 — Watford vs Crawley Town

• 16:00 — West Ham vs Portsmouth

• 18:30 — Cheltenham Town vs Charlton Athletic

• 18:30 — Colchester United vs Southampton

• 18:30 — Rotherham United vs West Bromwich Albion

Sunday 09 August

• 17:00 — Mansfield Town vs Sheffield United

Monday 10 August

• 21:00 — Plymouth Argyle vs Exeter

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Wolves vs Port Vale
🏟️ English League Cup Playoffs (Round 1)
📅 Friday 7 August; 20:45 (Europe/Paris)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Wolves are freshly relegated into the Championship (2nd tier); Port Vale are freshly relegated to League Two (4th tier).

  • Wolves conceded 1.79 goals per game last season (against Premier League attacks), while Port Vale’s forwards only managed just 0.78 goals per game (against third-tier defences).

  • Wolves finished their pre-season strong (3-0 vs Racing Santander; 2-0 vs Doncaster). Port Vale are weak (3-2 loss to Wimbledon; 0-2 home loss to Birmingham).

• CXSports says: Wolves and Port Vale both got relegated last season — Wolves dropped from the Premier League into the Championship, while Port Vale dropped from League One into League Two (4th division). That’s a two-division gap between them — probably the single biggest indicator as to how this game’s probably going to play out. And the fact this one’s going down on Wolves’ home turf only accentuates that imbalance.
  
  Besides that, there’s one other big thing that’s likely to have a big impact on this game. While the Wolves’ were something of a disaster in defense last season — 68 goals conceded in 38 Premier League games at an average 1.79 per match — Port Vale only scored 36 goals across 46 League One games at an average of 0.78 per match. So the big question here is whether Port Vale can even hope to break down a Wolves defense that, for all its top-flight misery, still managed to keep its defensive record somewhat respectable against much stronger competition (by which we mean, Wolves weren’t the worst defense in the EPL last season).
  
  Then, there’s also the question of form. Wolves closed their pre-season with a 3-0 win over Spanish side Racing Santander and a 2-0 win away at Doncaster (a League One club — i.e. a tier above Vale). Port Vale, on the other hand, only managed a 3-2 loss to Wimbledon and a 0-2 home defeat to Birmingham. So on one hand, we’ve got a team that’s shaping up nicely against stronger opposition while the other looks like it’s still learning its own players’ names (Port Vale has a dozen new signings).
  
  As such, the most likely outcome here is probably exactly what the initial league gap suggests — the Wolves will walk away with a neat victory in the bag.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Wolves

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Wolves Victory

• Odds Range: 1.16-1.35

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.87

⚽ Leicester City vs Northampton
🏟️ English League Cup Playoffs (Round 1)
📅 Saturday 8 August; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Leicester already beat Northampton 3-0 this summer.

  • Northampton were the worst team in League One with a −35 goal difference (with 74 conceded in 46 games at 1.61 per game) and a record 11 straight league defeats to finish dead last.

  • Leicester now sit in League One (tier 3) — one division above Northampton’s League Two (tier 4).

• CXSports says: Both teams here are coming in off the back of relegations. Leicester City (yes, the same Leicester City that won the Premier League in 2016) has fallen through two trapdoors in two years and will play 2026-27 in League One. Northampton Town, on the other hand, has fallen one further rung into League Two. And both are under brand-new managers. The big difference is, one of them’s carrying a whole lot more residual quality than the other.
  
  Besides the division gap, the numbers underneath also point in the same direction. Notably, Leicester beat Northampton 3-0 in a pre-season friendly in July, and finished up their six-game summer programme with four wins and a draw before a narrow 1-0 loss to Serie A’s Genoa. And they did so playing some tough opposition (top-flight Coventry, La Liga’s Malaga and Cadiz). Northampton, on the other hand, faced softer competition in their preseason, yet only managed two wins, two draws and two defeats. And their pre-season identity (under new boss Chris Hogg) seems to have been explicitly built around an overcorrection to last season’s disastrous defensive results. As such, right now they seem to be in “limiting the damage” mode — trying to be “hard to beat”. And it’s that defensive organisation which might be Northampton’s only real hope here — a fourth-tier side that battens down the hatches can frustrate a bigger opponent… for a while. Although, that approach might not work out quite as they hope here unless something dramatically changes — Leicester just put three past them to win 3-0 in the preseason.
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, assuming Northampton leans into its only real hope — a packed, locked down defense — there’s a chance we might see a slow start here. However, Leicester’s superior quality will probably break through eventually. Maybe even twice.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Leicester City

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Leicester City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.16-1.35

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.67

⚽ Watford vs Crawley Town
🏟️ English League Cup Playoffs (Round 1)
📅 Saturday 8 August; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Watford finished 2025-26 16th in the Championship (2nd tier); Crawley finished 22nd in League Two (4th tier).

  • Crawley beat a promoted York City side 2-0 away in the preliminary round, so they arrive in form with momentum.

  • Lower-division sides have knocked Watford out of this competition in four of the last five seasons, and they’ve lost six of their last seven EFL Cup meetings with lower-tier opponents.

• CXSports says: Watford are a middling Championship club: they finished 16th in the second tier last season, comfortably clear of relegation, with 57 points and a respectable-for-their-level 53 goals in 46 games. Crawley Town are a fourth-tier League Two side who spent last season staring down the barrel of non-league football and only just survived on the final day by a single point to finish 22nd of 24 with a -24 goal difference owing largely to a defence that leaked 68 goals. That makes this a bit more than just another two-division gap. In other words, Watford’s second tier status is stable, while Crawley’s fourth-tier status is marginal.
  
  With that said, there’s a couple of factors here that might prevent this one from becoming a stroll in the park for Watford. First, Crawley arrive genuinely match-ready after beating York City in the preliminary round. Watford, on the other hand, walk into this with a new head coach (Alessio Dionisi) in his very first competitive match in English football and just one win in four pre-season friendlies. And second, Watford have a reputation as a bit of a cup soft-touch — a lower-division side has knocked them out of this competition in four of the last five seasons, and they lost six of their last seven EFL Cup games against smaller clubs.
  
  With that said, the quality gap is likely too large for any cup-specific dynamics to dictate the pace here. Watford did, after all, end their pre-season with a convincing 3-0 win over German club Hansa Rostock. And they have a proven Championship-level offense that, against a Crawley back line that conceded nearly a goal and-a-half per game in the fourth division below, will likely create a meaningful mismatch of quality in attack vs defence.
  
  As such, the likely outcome here is for Crawley, fresh from their York win, to try and make a nuisance of themselves early to test whether Dionisi’s new-look side can break them down. But eventually, Watford’s superior quality will likely dictate as legs tire and the two-division gap makes itself apparent.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Watford

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Watford Victory

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.30

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.11-1.17

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. We’ll be back in the new week with a fresh batch of picks as we gear up for the upcoming round 3 games in the Champions League qualifications.

Until then, enjoy the football.