Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s the middle of the week, and another round of the English League Cup’s about to get underway, along with an absolutely packed La Liga schedule. So let’s get into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s La Liga and League Cup match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from the bunch. ✅

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This week we’ve got a nice little series of matches coming up in the English League Cup, along with a stack of games across rounds 6 and 7 in La Liga. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 League Cup

Wednesday 16 September

• 20:45 — Everton vs Wolves

• 20:45 — Fleetwood Town vs Sheffield United

• 21:00 — Coventry City vs Aston Villa

• 21:00 — Man Utd vs Brighton

Thursday 17 September

• 20:30 — Man City vs Norwich

🇪🇸 La Liga

Wednesday 16 September

• 19:00 — Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna

• 19:00 — Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla

• 21:30 — Barcelona vs Racing Santander

• 21:30 — Levante vs Athletic Bilbao

Thursday 17 September

• 19:00 — Real Betis vs Getafe

• 21:30 — Malaga vs Villarreal

Friday 18 September

• 21:00 — Espanyol vs Elche

Saturday 19 September

• 14:00 — Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

• 16:15 — Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves

• 18:30 — Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander

• 21:00 — Sevilla vs Barcelona

Sunday 20 September

• 14:00 — Getafe vs Malaga

• 16:15 — Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

• 18:30 — Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis

• 18:30 — Villarreal vs Levante

• 21:00 — Valencia vs Real Sociedad

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Everton vs Wolves
🏟️ English League Cup
📅 Wednesday 16 September; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Wolves have scored in all 8 games this season (19 goals @ 2.4 per game). They’ve also conceded in 5 of those 8, including 1.7 per game on average in the league.

  • Everton has conceded just 3 goals in 5 games (0.6 per game) with 3 clean sheets. However, they’ve only scored 3 goals in their last three league games which all ended in draws.

  • Wolves were the worst team in the Premier League last season, yet still knocked a rotated Everton out of this competition 2-0, in this exact round.

• CXSports says: Everton’s a nice little mid-table Premier League club that finished 13th last season. And now, they’re unbeaten in five matches this season with two wins, three draws, and just three conceded in that run at an average of 0.6 per game. However, those three draws have all come in a row, and they’ve only produced 3 goals. And now, the whole attack now rests on just one striker — Thierno Barry, a 23-year-old Frenchman with 4 goals this season, three of them in a single cup game against second-tier Preston. Over his last three matches, he’s taken 12 shots worth 2.53 expected and scored none of them. Then, standing behind him, a botched end to the transfer window’s left manager David Moyes with just 16 fit outfield players, which is a bit of a balancing act given there’s a league game coming up this Saturday.
  
  What’s funny about this is that it makes this match a real case of deja vu. A year ago, in this exact round against this exact opponent (Wolves), he (David Moyes) made seven changes. And then, he lost 2-0.
  
  Of course, for all the similarities in Everton’s setup, the Wolves aren’t really in the same boat anymore. They were relegated from the Premier League last May after a season so bad it produced just 3 wins from 38 games. On the plus side, however, they have at least spent the summer rebuilding a little confidence in the Championship, where they now sit 7th with 11 points from 6 games. And in that, they’ve also made a bit more of a habit of scoring, with 19 goals in 8 matches across all competitions. The only problem is, they still haven’t found a way to stop the leaking in defense with 10 conceded in 6 league games at an average of 1.7 per game. Still, With their attack averaging 2.4 per game (which is more than 1.7), things are mostly positive.
  
  So, does that mean the Wolves are in with a chance here? Probably not. Unfortunately for them, Everton’s one tough nut to crack in defense (remember, they’re leaking just 0.6 per game, mostly against tougher competition than Wolves). Further, while Everton’s attack might look a little underdone, its numbers here were also built against tougher competition. In theory, once they’re facing a defense that’s leaking 1.7 per game in the second-tier Championship, things should theoretically start to come to life a little bit more. As such, expect to see this one finish in Everton’s favor.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Everton

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Everton Victory

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.58

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.47

⚽ Barcelona vs Racing Santander
🏟️ Spanish La Liga
📅 Wednesday 16 September; 21:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Barcelona has won the last five head-to-heads with an aggregate score of 13-0. Across all meetings, the aggregate score stands at 42-9 with Racing Santander only having won a single game all the way back in 2004.

  • Barcelona are scoring 4.2 league goals per game; Racing has kept zero clean sheets in their last 15 matches.

  • Yassir Zabiri alone has scored five of Racing’s nine league goals leaving Racing’s offense heavily dependent on a single man.

• CXSports says: Barcelona are coming into this one on an eight-game winning streak across all competitions. And their numbers look equally unreal. In their last 5 league games, they’ve taken 21 goals at an average of 4.2 per game, all while conceding just 4 at an average of 0.8 per game. And that’s left them with a goal difference of +17 after barely a month.
  
  As for Racing, about the only positive thing we have to say about them is that they’re currently the “best-reviewed” newcomers in the league. But that’s got a bit more to do with their odd/”likeable” style of football, which isn’t really an attribute when facing off against the behemoth that is Barcelona. And their numbers don’t really look that great, either. They currently have 9 scored and 9 conceded 9, with no clean sheet in five league games and none in 15 matches overall. And they’ve also lost both of their away games this season. And as if that wasn’t problematic enough on its own, Yassir Zabiri has scored five of their nine goals, which already leaves them rather dependent on a single man. However, this match, they’ll also be missing Andres Martín — one of their other scorers — who’s currently injured. And finally, let’s not forget about the head-to-head history here — the last five games finished Barcelona 13-0 Racing on aggregate. And the last time Racing took a single point off Barcelona was in their own stadium was back in 2008. The last (and only) time they won was even further back, in 2004.
  
  Given that set up, we think it’s safe to say that no further comment is required.

• Score prediction: 4-1 for Barcelona

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Barcelona Victory

• Odds Range: 1.03-1.10

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.23-1.48

⚽ Manchester City vs Norwich
🏟️ English League Cup
📅 Thursday 17 September; 20:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Norwich have conceded in every competitive match this season, with 16 goals conceded in total @ 1.78 per game.

  • City has won their last three meetings with Norwich by an aggregate of 14-0, including back-to-back 5-0 home wins. 

  • City’s currently on a winning streak with their last five delivering 5 wins with just 2 goals conceded.

• CXSports says: This one’s a classic example of why we love competitions like the League Cup. A rich club from the top-flight meets a second-tier club with nothing to lose, which can make for some interesting football, even if the outcome is already more or less pre-determined. And yeah, this one’s looking particularly pre-determined — City’s arriving on a winning streak that’s delivered five straight wins with 10 scored and just 2 conceded (an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game). What’s more, the most recent of those wins was a 1-0 against no lesser of an opponent than Manchester United, and City did that despite playing with just 10 men for nearly 70 minutes.
  
  Of course, as usual, it’s probably worth discounting City’s performance in this game as squad rotation will likely feature heavily here given the lower priority of this game. And add to that the fact that Foden (City’s goalkeeper) is suspended, so a debutant goalkeeper will probably find themselves between the posts for the game. But, at the same time, let’s also not forget that City’s reserves were, for the most part, assembled at prices that would probably buy Norwich’s entire first-choice squad. So let’s not pretend this does anything to affect the outcome in any meaningful way.
  
  As for Norwich itself, there isn’t really anything remarkable to report here. They’re a mid-table second-tier club sitting 12th of 24 in the second tier with three wins, four defeats, 13 league goals scored and 13 conceded. In other words, they’re “fine” by second-tier standards, but totally out of their depths here.
  
  And that means this one’s simple — Man City will take this one with ease, and the best Norwich can probably hope for is a single consolation goal.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Manchester City

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Manchester City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.08-1.16

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.32

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to this weekend's action across the biggest top-flight leagues around, including the Premier League.

Until then, enjoy the football.