Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s been a weird week in football.

For starters, we just saw the Hatters defeat the Hatters (not a typo) in the EFL Trophy final. And if that wasn’t weird enough, one of those Hatters (Luton) was actually knocked out way back in the round of 16… only to suddenly get back in after an administrative error.

And this isn’t just a once-off bit of weirdness. As we speak, a 12th-placed 2nd division Dutch side (Vitesse) is eyeing up a potential promotion to the top flight (Eredivisie) thanks to one very strange rule.

And then, we’ve got the surprise exit of US Soccer’s sporting director, Matt Crocker, just 2 months out from the 2026 World Cup. The story is he got a better job offer in Saudi Arabia. But maybe the real reason’s got something to do with recognizing a sinking ship…

But that’s enough of the news. Here’s what’s up in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s top EPL odds and predictions. 🦵⚽

• Some hairy (and questionable) football tactics. 🏟️✨

• Lisandro Martínez lays down the law. 🔥💪

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⚽ Brentford vs Fulham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 18 April; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The over/under on this one looks solid given the scoring history in this fixture.

• CXSports says: The setup on this one looks obvious at first. Brentford are scoring at a rate of 1.50 goals per game, while Fulham is only managing 1.34. Brentford’s also conceding less, with 1.38 conceded per game against Fulham’s 1.44. And then we’ve also got the fact that Brentford’s doing better in the league overall compared with Fulham, and the fact they’re playing this one at home. But here’s where it gets tricky — Fulham has won the last 3 games straight in this fixture, and is unbeaten in 4. And that includes a crushing 2-goal winning margin the last time these two met, where Fulham crushed Brentford 3-1. So what does that mean for this game? This could go either way, with Fulham posing as a real threat, even if the baseline stats point to Brentford holding the edge here. In either case, expect goals and a result — in the last 10 head-to-heads, only one game ended in a draw, and only one ended with an aggregate tally of less than 3 (and they were both the same game).

• Score prediction: 2-1 or 1-2 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Brentford / Fulham)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.31

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.58-1.81

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Leeds vs Wolves
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 18 April; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one has a solid double chance play that accounts for the Wolves unpredictability while keeping things safe.

• CXSports says: Leeds aren’t exactly what you’d call a great team. But compared to Wolves, they look thoroughly brilliant. For comparison, Wolves are currently averaging 0.75 goals scored per game while conceding a massive 1.81. Both of those are the worst numbers in the league. Leeds, on the other hand, are noticeably better on the offense, with 1.22 scored per game, and slightly better in defense, with 1.53 conceded per game. Of course, we can’t discount the sheer unpredictability of the Wolves, who’ve somehow defied the expectations they established early in the season with a string of upset results. However, there’s something worth noting here — the Wolves are yet to win a game on the road, although they have managed away draws against the likes of Man United, Everton, Forest, and Brentford. So who knows, maybe they’ll manage to defy the odds and pull off a similar result here. There’s always a chance of that. Just don’t expect to see the Wolves pull off a victory here.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Leeds or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Leeds / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.18

Option #2

• Bet: Leeds Victory

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.69

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Tottenham vs Brighton
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 18 April; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The head-to-head history is likely pushing Tottenham’s odds up higher than they deserve to be, leaving us with some great value on a probable Brighton victory.

• CXSports says: Tottenham’s not doing too well right now. They’re stuck inside the relegation zone and haven’t won a single league game since the end of last year. Brighton, on the other hand, have been having a good run in recent games, with three clean sheet victories and just a single loss in their last 6 games. That’s seen them climb noticeably up the table, and will create the sort of momentum that should prove more or less unstoppable here, particularly against a Tottenham side that’s only managed to score 4 goals in its last 6 games — a stat that’s pointing towards a disastrous result against a Brighton defense that’s currently operating at such a high level. With that said, nothing’s ever guaranteed, and this game is no exception. The last time these two met, Tottenham managed a draw on the road. However, that was months ago, back in a time when there was much less of a difference in each side’s form.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 2.10-2.47

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.52-1.72

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Chelsea vs Man United
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 18 April; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: 

• CXSports says: Chelsea’s baseline stats are relatively good. They score at an average of 1.66 goals per game and concede at a rate of 1.28. That more or less puts them on an equal footing with United, who average 1.78 scored and 1.41 conceded. However, while Chelsea’s overall numbers are solid, their recent form leaves something to be desired with just a single victory in their last 5, compared with 3 for United. That sort of momentum gives United the sort of edge that could serve them well here, although there’s one pattern we can’t ignore — this fixture hasn’t been won by the away team since mid-2020, with all 11 games since then either ending in a draw, or a home side victory. And with a history like that combined with stats as even as they are, who are we to disagree?

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Chelsea or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Chelsea / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.42

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.50

▶▶ Full Match Details

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

In any case, the move’s probably no surprise given the nickname Man United has earned themselves in the past.

Now let’s see if you know that nickname, with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: Manchester United is also known as the "Red Devils." True or False?

Think you know the answer?

Or read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Aston Villa vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 19 April; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With each side here having a tight defense and a relatively low attacking output, the under 3.5 looks like a solid play here.

• CXSports says: Aston Villa’s 4th position in the league is one built on control rather than dominance. They only average 1.34 goals per game (the lowest in the top-6), but only concede 1.19 per game (the tightest defense in the top-6 besides Arsenal’s and Man City’s). Interestingly, Sunderland matches Villa in defense, with just 1.13 conceded per game on average. Where Sunderland lets themselves down, however, is on the offense, with just 1.03 scored per game. That swings this game squarely in Villa’s favor, so long as they can maintain their higher attacking output come game day, which shouldn’t be too much of a problem given their home ground advantage.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.72

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.35

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Everton vs Liverpool
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 19 April; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While Liverpool are technically in better form, the head-to-head history in this derby makes the higher odds on the other side worth taking a punt on here.

• CXSports says: Generally, this fixture tends to work heavily against the visiting side, with the large majority of matches either ending in a draw, or a home side victory. In fact, just 2 of the last 20 head-to-heads have been won by the visitors. And there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see that pattern continue this time around. While Liverpool are doing considerably better in the league than Everton, they’re hardly in the sort of form that screams dominance when stacked up against Everton’s otherwise reasonable form. Therefore, we’re giving this one an equal chance of either ending in a home side victory or a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Everton or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Everton / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.69

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.48-1.67

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 19 April; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s far from our top pick for the week, but there’s still some solid value on Forest here given the current state of Burnley.

• CXSports says: Burnley hasn’t managed to win much of anything this season, with just four victories all season (none of which are recent). In fact, given their recent results — 4 losses and a draw in their last 5 — about the only notable thing about them is their tenacious grip on the not-so-prestigious title for the worst defense in the league, with a whopping 63 goals conceded at an average of 1.93 per game. And while Forest aren’t massively better in terms of overall league positioning (they’re only 3 places ahead of Burnley), they at least manage to run a much tighter ship in defense (1.38 conceded per game). That, combined with the home advantage, should be enough to see this one swing in Forest’s favor.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Nottingham Forest

Option #1

• Bet: Nottingham Forest Victory

• Odds Range: 1.37-1.58

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.25-1.40

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Man City vs Arsenal
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 19 April; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: It’s a long shot, but the chances of a draw in this one are far better than the odds suggest.

• CXSports says: This is the blockbuster game of the week. A victory for City in this one puts them within striking distance of the title. A victory for Arsenal more or less locks them into #1 for the remainder of the season. So which way’s this one likely to go? Honestly, it’s a little too close to tell. Both are posting almost identical numbers, albeit with City being slightly looser in defense. And both are coming into this with similar momentum, with each having four victories in their last 6. If there’s any sign of an edge here, it might be in the last time these two met, where City defeated Arsenal 0-2 on the road. But that was an EFL cup game where the stakes were arguably lower. This game’s almost literally a Premier League title fight. That’s likely going to see Arsenal come into this one somewhat tentatively with an eye on preserving their position rather than fighting for the victory. That could see them double down in their already impenetrable defense in an attempt to suffocate this one into a draw. And if they do, that could very well be the way this one ends.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 2.90-3.80

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.20-1.36

▶▶ Full Match Details

Make your sportsbook work for you!

No surprises here, but Monday night’s hair pull isn’t the first time Lisandro Martínez has been seen playing a little “mean”.

In fact, he earned himself the nickname “The Butcher of Amsterdam” a while back thanks to his aggressive style of play.

And here was his response to that nickname:

Moral of the story?

Well, this one’s a bit of a play on the old “nice guys finish last” theme.

Now, we’re not going to advocate being a not-nice guy all the time. But sometimes, being a little mean can pay dividends.

The secret is choosing your moments.

Martínez chooses his moments on the football field.

Where will you choose yours?

Want to learn more about Lisandro Martínez and Man United?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Manchester United Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was True — Manchester United is known as the Red Devils. Discover more trivia like this with the Manchester United Trivia Quiz.