Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Have you ever seen an own-goal that was so bad it triggered a match fixing investigation? This week, that exact scenario played out in Panama when Sporting San Miguelito’s goalkeeper (who shouldn’t even be scoring goals in the first place!!!) delivered one very, very “bizarre” own goal.

That’s either very suspcious… or very unfortunate…

And speaking of weird situations, anyone catch wind of that North Korea vs South Korea match that’s coming up? Keep an eye out for it — if we can find any odds on it, we’re definitely going to cover this one!

And here’s what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• The best EPL odds and predictions for this week. 🦵⚽

• Arsenal’s UCL miracle. 🏟️✨

• Arsenal’s secret to success. 🔥💪

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⚽ Liverpool vs Chelsea
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 09 May; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Great value here — Chelsea’s overall “potential” has pushed up the odds on Liverpool well above where they should be given Chelsea’s current form.

• CXSports says: In theory, this one smells like it should be a Liverpool win. For starters, Liverpool’s scoring 1.69 goals per game while conceding 1.34, while Chelsea’s marginally worse at both ends of the field with 1.54 scored and 1.37 conceded. And, given the home advantage, those stats theoretically point to the more likely outcome. Of course, the difference is marginal, and Chelsea still has enough attack to edge ahead if they catch Liverpool asleep at the wheel. With that said, Chelsea’s record lately is an absolute mess — they’ve had six straight losses in the run up to this, and, with 13 straight league games without a clean sheet, their defense has certainly slipped. As such, between their home advantage, marginally better stats, and overall better form, Liverpool should take this one.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.70-1.94

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.47

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Brighton vs Wolves
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 09 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The Wolves “surprise factor” tends to push up the odds on their opponents nicely. That makes Brighton a very appealing option here.

• CXSports says: Based on the numbers, this one should be obvious. At home, Brighton are strong at home (8W/6D/3L this season), scoring 1.59 goals per game and conceding just 1.00. The Wolves, on the other hand, are terrible everywhere (and especially away), scoring well under a goal per game (0.41 on the road!) while conceding almost 2 goals per game. Of course, in the back half of this season, the Wolves have shown they can surprise (even if their surprise factor has gone down recently). So we do have to make the argument against Brighton. For instance, they just lost 3-1 at Newcastle, and the head-to-head includes a 1-1 earlier this season. Of course, Brighton were away in that game, which is not the case here. And given Brighton’s exceptional home record (and the Wolves terrible everywhere record), there’s really no reason to not back Brighton as the outright favorite.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.31

Option #2

• Bet: First Team to Score (Brighton)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.30

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Fulham vs Bournemouth
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 09 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Fulham’s home strength combined with Bournemouth’s habit of playing to equality makes the Draw option on this well worth the ‘risk’.

• CXSports says: While there’s a decent gap between these two on the table (Fulham is #11, Bournemouth is #6), this isn’t the cleanest setup. At home, Fulham has about 2 victories for every loss, score 1.65 goals per home game, and concede only 1.12. So they’re not exactly a pushover here. Of course, Bournemouth is arriving with massive momentum — they’re unbeaten in their last 16 games (6W/9D), and took a 3-0 victory over Chelsea in the lead up to this. As such, they should be more or less unbeatable here. The only real question is, does unbeaten mean a victory or a draw? Here, Bournemouth’s defensive weaknesses could come into play here — they have, after all, conceded 33 away goals this season, which is a massive 1.94 per match. And with Fulham’s home attack being productive enough to punish that, we could see Fulham putting up a serious fight for equality here. As such, our tip is to trust in Bournemouth’s unbeaten streak — after 15 games, that’s no longer a fluke — but to also allow for the possibility of Fulham keeping this one to a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Bournemouth or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Draw / Bournemouth)

• Odds Range: 1.40-1.61

Option #2

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.10-3.87

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Man City vs Brentford
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 09 May; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: We reckon you’d be crazy not to back City at home. So that’s exactly what we’re doing.

• CXSports says: It should go without saying by now, but City should come out ahead in this one. But that’s not because Brentford are bad — far from it. It’s more to do with the fact that City’s numbers are simply that good. Especially at home, where they’ve only been defeated once all season while taking 12 victories and just 3 draws with an aggregate score of 38-12. As for Brentford, while their away profile is fine in terms of results (a nice balance of results), their defensive numbers will ultimately let them down against an attack as ferocious as City’s — with 27 conceded in 17 away matches, that’s 1.59 per game. Of course, City did just draw 3-3 at Everton, so they’re not exactly unstoppable. But that was an away game while this one’s at home for City. And, as we’ve seen, their home numbers are exceptional. And let’s not forget the head-to-head here — City is unbeaten in the last six against Brentford, with five victories and one draw. Chances are, this one makes it unbeaten in seven with six victories and a draw.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.19-1.41

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.67

▶▶ Full Match Details

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

In case you missed it, Arsenal has qualified for the UEFA Champions League Final.

And while it’s not much of a surprise given the season they’ve just had, it might be a surprise if you remember the Arsenal of recent years. (Would you believe they were just a mid table squad just a few short years ago!?).

Now let’s see if you know how long it’s been since Arsenal last made the Champions League final with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: In which year did Arsenal last reach the Champions League final?

• A: 1986

• B: 1996

• C: 2006

• D: 2016

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Burnley vs Aston Villa
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 10 May; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The over/under play on this one looks nice given the fact recent head-to-heads all finished +2.5.

• CXSports says: Villa’s top-five while Burnley’s bottom-two. That alone should tell you who’s likely to win this one. But just in case that didn’t make it obvious, Burnley are scoring 1.00 goal per game while conceding at just over double that rate (2.03 per game overall). And, as a natural consequence of that, their results are exactly what you’d expect, with just 4 victories all season. With that said, Villa’s road to victory here might not be as clean as it should be — they are coming off two back-to-back defeats (to Fulham and Tottenham), most likely thanks to a little Europa League fatigue. And with their away record being somewhat ‘mixed’ (6W/5D/6L), they will find themselves at a slight disadvantage here relative to their overall season numbers paired with a home advantage. With that said, they still have 58 points, 48 goals, and a positive goal difference with just 44 conceded, which is miles ahead of Burnley. And, with a recent H2H run that’s seen them defeat Burnley 2-1, 3-2 and 3-1 in the last three games, Burnley’s chances still don’t look great. As such, we’re backing Villa, albeit with the slightest of hesitations.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 1.42-1.63

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.57-1.78

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Everton
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 10 May; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The chances of a draw on this one are good enough that we reckon it’s definitely worth a look, so long as you can secure something at the upper end of the odds market.

• CXSports says: In theory, this looks like it should be an Everton victory. After all, they have won the last straight head-to-heads, and have gone undefeated in this fixture in the last 10. And, with Palace’s home numbers showing them only scoring only 0.94 goals per game vs Everton’s away record of 1.12 while conceding 1.18, Palace does look slightly vulnerable here. With that said, Everton still concedes enough (44 in 35) that almost anyone still stands a chance against them. And, with Palace’s defense being slightly better (42 in 35), there’s no reason to believe that they won’t be capable of causing complications for Everton’s mediocre attack. As such, even if we can’t say it with absolute certainty, this game could very well end in a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 2.40-3.46

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.80

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 10 May; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With under 15% of past H2H games ending in a draw, the double chance here looks solid.

• CXSports says: At first glance, this one’s close. Right now, Newcastle is 13th with 45 points while Forest is 16th on 42. And both have a -2 goal difference. (Newcastle has 49-51, while Forest has an aggregate of 44-46). And as for the home advantage — don’t expect Forest to be able to lean on that here. So far, Forest only has only four home game victories from 17. (Which just so happens to match Newcastle’s away record identically). Now, as for what this whole “both teams are more or less equal” thing means come game day, chances are it means one of these two gets a positive result — both teams are on a more or less equal footing here, and the head-to-head history shows this fixture only ends in a draw in a little under 15% of all games. With that said, if we had to pick a side, it’d probably be Newcastle… but we’re not ready to write Forest off.

• Score prediction: 1-2 or 2-1 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Forest / Newcastle)

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.33

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.43-1.61

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ West Ham vs Arsenal
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 10 May; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: “It’s Arsenal.” What more needs to be said?

• CXSports says: In case you haven’t checked the Premier League table in a while, there’s really only two things you need to know. First, West Ham’s poised for relegation. And second, Arsenal’s still poised for the title. And while West Ham’s whole “survival” urgency has seen them step up lately, let’s be serious here — it’s Arsenal. (PS: in the last 5 head-to-heads, only 1 game ended with both teams scoring.)

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.67

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.85-2.15

▶▶ Full Match Details

Make your sportsbook work for you!

With Arsenal topping the Premier League and finally making it’s first UCL final in way too many years, we thought it might be time to check in with their coach.

Here’s what Mikel Arteta has to say about winning attitudes.

And, as it turns out, that attitude pays dividends.

After all, Arsenal has made it to the Champions League final after a long dry spell, all while topping the Premier League all season long.

If that’s not getting better in life, then we don’t know what is!

Want to learn more about Mikel Arteta and Arsenal?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

»» Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Arsenal Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [C] — Arsenal last made the UCL final in 2006, where they lost to Barcelona 2-1. Discover more trivia like this with the Arsenal Trivia Quiz.