Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This year, one of the great World Cup battles seems to be taking place off the field, between French start Kylian Mbappé and Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarillo.

Today, we cover the full story. But we’ll get to that in a minute. First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• Mbappé vs Amarillo — the full story. 📝

• Our France vs Morocco prediction. ✅

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There are no matches scheduled for today. The next match is tomorrow’s France vs Morocco quarterfinal.

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Paraguay vs France (a tense match in and of itself) might be done and dusted. But the drama following it just doesn’t seem to end. The latest installment — French prosecutors have opened an investigation into Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarillo.

Unfortunately, a lot of the reporting out there makes it pretty hard to follow the full context, with most of it simply paraphrasing select snippets from the messages.

So today, we’ve assembled the full, unedited exchange at the heart of the controversy. Here goes.

The whole thing started with this tweet by Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarillo:

Translation:

“A colonized Cameroonian, trying really hard to act French, resentful, a nouveau riche, arrogant, and ugly. He was nervous and scared out of his mind the whole game, just like his entire team, they couldn’t score a single goal, and they won by the skin of their teeth…

The only thing many of us are criticizing La Albirroja for is not giving him a good open-handed slap after the game ended. And I’m not even a soccer fan 🫣”

That was shortly followed by this zinger (which has since been deleted.

Translation:

The idiot never even learned to write. Instead of breast milk, he was sucking coconuts, and the most intelligent voices he heard were chimpanzees. You should’ve given him the finger, Orlando Gill, I do it in the Senate and nothing happens!!!

To add a little context here, the bit where she says Gill should’ve given him the finger refers to an incident where Mbappé apparently ignored Paraguayan goal keeper Orlando Gill when Gill offered Mbappé a handshake immediately after the match. Although, whether Mbappé actually ignored him, or simply didn’t see him is up for debate. Here’s the video — decide for yourself.

Anyway, that leads us to the next installment — Mbappé’s response.

Translation:

Mrs. Celeste Amarilla,

You are a contemptible woman and unworthy of your office.

You do not represent Paraguay — a country that has shown passion and honour throughout the competition. Through your recklessness and your shameless racism, the whole world has already forgotten the historic run and effort your players achieved during this World Cup, and instead is now focused on an incompetent woman giving the worst possible image of her country.

I will never allow people like her the freedom to spread their hatred and racism around the world.

And finally, that led to Amarilla deleting the spicier tweet she sent and firing off this “short” letter:

Translation:

TO MBAPPÉ

The problem is between you and me. I never said anything about France; my issue is with you. I studied at a French school from the age of 2 until 17, when I completed my secondary education. I am what I am thanks to the Collège de L’Immaculée Conception, and I am where I am thanks to the education it gave me. We sang La Marseillaise and honored its flag alongside our own. I speak French and love visiting France. Last Christmas I spent with my family in Courchevel, and we rang in the New Year in Saint-Tropez. Nothing against France. The problem is with you.

I was very angered by your arrogance and contempt even before the match. You said: “if we have to put our hands in the shit, we’ll put them in.” We are not stupid; we understood perfectly well that the “shit” was the Paraguayan team, and the Paraguayan team is all of us. Then you said you were going to take off the tuxedo. We also understood very well that you are so elegant you wear tuxedos, while we, poor and brutish as we are, do not even really know what one is. Still, all of Paraguay remained silent, including me. We put up with it.

During the match, you behaved arrogantly. Your contempt for each player was obvious, as if they disgusted you, and without even covering your mouth you said “la concha de tu madre,” an extremely aggressive phrase in Latin America — and you know that, which is why you said it.

And finally, you disrespected our goalkeeper’s handshake. That is not done. The handshake between rivals after a contest is almost sacred, in war and in peace, in defeat and in victory, and you refused his hand and shouted your victory in his face. That is not done. In one second, you showed your contempt, your arrogance, and your bad manners. It hurt me. It hurt my whole country, and deeply. France should call you out for it, because it is a country of gentlemen, with centuries of history and “savoir-faire.” France should call out your behavior.

My posts were written with my blood boiling — this mestiza blood, this beautiful mixture of Indigenous blood and Spanish blood that runs through my veins, was boiling. That is how I made the posts while you were still mocking those immense Paraguayan players who fought you as equals until the end of the match, and that is how I wrote. However, after a while I regretted mistreating you with the same insults I receive myself, because I too am looked down on for being brown and Latina — they call us “sudacas.” I regretted it and deleted the post. I realized I was repeating patterns I detest, and I deleted it. I understand that it bothered you, because it is humiliating.

Now I demand that you also retract what you said to me and apologize. I will not tolerate your violence either. You do not know me. You have no idea who I am, and you have no right to say that I AM A DESPICABLE WOMAN, UNWORTHY OF THE OFFICE I HOLD. I am a Senator of the Paraguayan Nation, elected by votes. Before that, I was a National Deputy, also elected by votes. Thousands of Paraguayans, men and women, voted for me and consider me their voice. My main commitment is to be the voice of the Paraguayan people, to say what they cannot, and to defend my country even with my life. That is what is expected of me.

I represent my country because I was voted in through free elections. I was freely elected to make its laws and to be its voice. You have no idea what it means to be chosen to defend your country, to be the voice of the people. I was chosen to be a National Senator; I do not know whether you grasp the importance of my office.

Who are you to call me unworthy or despicable when you do not even know me!!! Pure and simple gender-based violence!!! Political violence against a woman who got where she is through the popular vote of her people. You, of all people, showing contempt toward gender; you, of all people, offending a woman. I did not attack your color, nor your preferences; do not attack my condition as a woman and a politician. Retract what you said to me, honor your French citizenship, and apologize to me. Otherwise, I may initiate legal action for gender-based violence.

Celeste Amarilla

Of course, never the types to resist leaving our 2-cents out of it, we can’t help but comment on what a spectacular self-own this letter is.

And we’re not just talking about her trying to pretend Mbappé’s response was “gender-based violence” (which we’re pretty sure even the wokest of woke minds would have trouble seeing how there was anything gender-based about it).

A couple of things to note:

• She says she loves France, but the  entirety of the evidence for her love of France is the fact that she:

  • Attended an exclusive private school in France (Collège de L’Immaculée Conception)

  • Spent a couple of vacations in exclusive vacation resort towns (Courchevel and Saint-Tropez).

• She also claims to speak French — and probably does — but shows (whether intentionally or not) a very “private school text book” understanding — to “put your hands in the shit” is a common French expression that, in it’s not-quite-literal-but-almost-literal translation means “to get your hands dirty.” Mbappé was effectively saying “if we have to abandon the tuxedo football and play dirty, then we’re going to play dirty,” which Amarillo probably would’ve known if her love of France was anything deeper than private schools and exclusive destinations.

Anyway, Mbappé, if you’re reading this, might we suggest your next response:

I love Paraguay and know its people well. I holidayed in San Bernardino, and stayed behind security gates on Lake Ypacaraí where I ate at an excellent seafood restaurant owned by one of the player’s mothers — the concha was excellent!

⚽ France vs Morocco
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Thursday 09 July; 22:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: It’s the World Cup Quarterfinals. Duh!

• Top 3 Stats:

  • France is currently #1 in the FIFA World Rankings, and has 5W/0D/0L, 14 goals scored, and 2 conceded after 5 games at this World Cup.

  • Morocco is currently #6 in the FIFA World Rankings, and has 3W/2D/0L, 10 goals scored, and 4 conceded after 5 games at this World Cup.

  • These two have not faced off in a head-to-head since 2022, which ended France 2-0 Morocco.

• CXSports says: So far, it’s probably safe to say that France has been this year’s benchmark side at the World Cup — 14 goals scored, just two conceded, and they’ve won every single game they’ve played.
  
  However, Morocco aren’t exactly another Paraguay. And they’re definitely not a Cape Verde-style plucky underdog surviving on an overachieving goalkeeper and a prayer. They’re a side averaging 60% possession, they’re unbeaten in 10, and have a solid squad built around the likes of Bounou, Hakimi and Brahim Díaz — a squad that has already gone toe-to-toe with Brazil and knocked out the Netherlands.
  
  The big stat here that France will probably find somewhat uncomfortable is the fact that half of their World Cup defeats this century have come against African opposition — three of six, more than against European and South American teams combined. That means Morocco is also in the one category of opponent that’s actually capable of stopping the French machine.
  
  We also know Morocco won’t sit in a low block and hope for the best. More than likely they’ll actively contest the ball, press through Ounahi and El Khannouss, and use Hakimi (whose 15 chances created are a record for an African defender in a single edition) as a genuine attack vector down the right.
  
  For France, the natural counter to all that is that they just proved that they can win this exact kind of game. The 1-0 grind-fest against Paraguay (ugly, tetchy, and only settled by a single Mbappé penalty) may prove more valuable than any of the routs — it showed this current Deschamps side can absorb frustration and still manufacture the decisive moment.
  
  Morocco also has a bit of a problem at the sharp end — their false-nine system loses much of its point if Ismael Saibari’s hamstring troubles keep him out. And, as a side that’s scored more than one goal in a game only twice this tournament, they may struggle to punish France even if they manage to contain them. Bounou can keep Morocco in it, Hakimi can trouble France’s left, and they collectively have the discipline to make this a tense low-scoring contest. But keeping France on a short leash for the full 90 minutes and actually beating them are two completely different tasks, and the second requires the sort of cutting edge Morocco is probably missing right at the moment they need it most.
  
  As such, we expect that Morocco has the potential to make this uncomfortable — maybe, enough to send this one to extra time or beyond. But that’s probably the best-case scenario for Morocco. Ultimately, the pattern of this French squad finding a way through (even when they play poorly) points in the more likely direction.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for France

Bet Option #1

• Bet: France Victory

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.67

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.22-1.34

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back tomorrow with more World Cup news, along with our prediction for the upcoming Spain vs Belgium quarterfinal.

Until then, enjoy the football… and try not to get your hands too dirty.