Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, Samir Nasri (Ex-Arsenal, Man City, OM) got outed by his Deliveroo habit. After using the app to order food to his Paris apartment 212 times in a year, French tax authorities accused him of dodging income taxes by claiming to live in Dubai while actually living in France.

So is he guilty? Who knows. But as the old saying goes, “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” After all, if he was really trying to dodge taxes, then why was he ordering so much Deliveroo…? 🤣

Aside from that, there hasn’t been a whole lot of football news since last time. The whole “Who won AFCON?” saga is still ongoing. Referees are still making one controversial decision after another controversial decision after another controversial decision after… well, you get the point. (See, told you nothing’s changed!).

Oh, and we almost forgot… the Premier League’s back, which leads us to this — what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s best Premier League predictions and odds. 🦵⚽

• The European paradox haunting top soccer squads. 🏟️✨

• Something inspiring about the unimportance of winning. 🔥💪

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⚽ Arsenal vs Bournemouth
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Saturday 11 April; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Relative to Arsenal’s vastly superior edge here, these odds are huge.

• CXSports says: Arsenal are shooting close to 2 goals per game and only conceding 0.7 while Bournemouth are only scoring 1.48 and conceding 1.55. Arsenal also has 4 victories from their last 5 games while Bournemouth has only managed a string of draws. That more or less tells you which side is capable of “finishing the job” and which side is just hanging in there. Of course, the head-to-head history here paints a slightly different picture, with results in the last five being evenly split, with Arsenal and Bournemouth each taking 2 victories and one game ending in a draw. With that said, the positive results for Bournemouth came when the performance gap between these two wasn’t as vast as it is now. That should mean Arsenal’s superior firepower and defense will win out here, even if there’s still the distant possibility of Bournemouth somehow pulling off a draw.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.25-1.47

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Arsenal / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.04-1.13

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

⚽ Brentford vs Everton
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Saturday 11 April; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s a solid-looking double chance play here with a very good chance of hitting.

• CXSports says: Brentford typically play games averaging near 3 goals on aggregate, with those goals being split slightly in Brentford’s favor (1.48 scored per game vs 1.35 conceded). Everton also shows a similar bias in its scoring stats, albeit with a tendency towards lower-scoring games (1.19 scored vs 1.13 conceded). That sets up a real tension here between a team that leans towards a more open style of play and a team that prefers to keep a lid on things. And, if history is any indicator, then Brentford already showed how to crack Everton’s style of play with 4-2 victory in January which saw Everton’s defensive structure collapse under Brentford’s sustained pressure. With that said, Everton has also demonstrated an ability to keep a leash on Brentford, with the two games preceding the January thrashing ending in a draw. As such, while the more likely scenario in this one is a Brentford victory, don’t rule out the possibility of a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Brentford or Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Brentford / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.33

Option #2

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 2.01-2.29

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

⚽ Burnley vs Brighton
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Saturday 11 April; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A nice clean setup with a clear favorite and some decent odds.

• CXSports says: If you look at the head-to-head history in this one, it looks like it should be a reasonably balanced game — over the course of the last 10 head-to-heads, 5 games ended in a draw, with an (almost) even split of the victories. But that’s ancient history. These days, Burnley’s sitting on the edge of collapse. They’re barely scoring (1.06  goals per game), and, when they do score, they immediate concede close to two goals on average (1.97 conceded). On the other hand, while not exactly putting up performances that would make it the poster child of consistency, Brighton is at least managing to keep a semblance of balance, with 1.32 scored per game against 1.19 conceded. And with four victories in their last five (compared with zero for Burnley), it’s also clear Brighton at least know how to finish the job on the field. That sets this one up to play out as a reasonably clean victory for Brighton.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.62

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.57-1.75

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

⚽ Liverpool vs Fulham
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Saturday 11 April; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While this isn’t a solid pick in terms of the final result, the BTTS looks solid given both sides ability to score in this fixture (7 straight head-to-heads with BTTS).

• CXSports says: Looking at this from a bird’s eye view, Liverpool look like a much stronger side here. They’re sitting higher in the standings (#5 vs #9 for Fulham), scoring more (1.61 vs 1.39 for Fulham), and conceding slightly less (1.35 vs 1.42 for Fulham). But underneath that, things aren’t quite as stable as they might seem. In their last 5, Liverpool has only managed 2 victories, a single draw, and has been defeated 2 times, including that embarrassing 2-1 performance against the Wolves. Fulham, on the other hand, has done slightly better, with 3 victories, 1 draw, and 1 loss. But we also can’t ignore the fact that loss was at home against West Ham — a side that’s almost as disastrous as the Wolves. So what we have here is a game where Liverpool technically have the higher ceiling, the better attack, and the deeper squad, but where Fulham have shown just enough stubbornness to keep the game unstable. That stubbornness has also shown itself in past head-to-heads, where both teams have scored in the last 7 straight meetings between these two. That will make for a slightly unpredictable game — a game where Liverpool holds a technical advantage, but could very well squander it away.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.63

Option #2

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.42-1.61

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

This week, The Guardian dropped a pretty interesting article about a couple of paradoxes in European football. Specifically:

1. Teams that go deep in Europe while getting relegated domestically, or;

2. Teams that get knocked out in Europe without losing a single game

Apparently, these situations have occurred many times. And, as things stand right now, we might be about to witness it again.

As most of you should know by now, Tottenham is just 1 point shy of the Premier League relegation zone. And yet, if you look at their UCL campaign, they’ve actually done alright on the Euro stage.

But things get even more bizarre from here.

Tottenham happens to be one of the five clubs that pushed for the creation of the Premier League. And, ever since the EPL was founded, they’ve never missed a season. If they get relegated this year, it’ll be their first ever relegation from the Premier League, and their first relegation from first-division football since…

… well, let’s see if you know, with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: When was the last time Tottenham Hotspur was relegated from the first division of English football?

• A: 1997

• B: 1987

• C: 1977

• D: 1967

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Sunday 12 April; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: It’s a bit of a long shot, but with some decent odds on a draw and a good case for that actually happening, this one’s definitely worth a look.

• CXSports says: The head-to-head history between these two paints an odd picture. Either Newcastle dominates (5-0, 4-0, 2-0, and 4-0 again), or Palace manages to play for equality (1-1, 0-0, 0-0, and 0-0). Of course, most recent trend is towards Newcastle dominating, with most of those draws taking place 3+ years ago. But there’s a problem here. Newcastle has slipped since these two last met, and we see it in the numbers. Over their last 5 games, Newcastle has lost 3, while Palace has only lost two. And there isn’t much salvation for Newcastle in their scoring stats either, which have since slipped to 1.42 scored per game and 1.45 conceded. And while those numbers are certainly “bigger” than Palace’s 1.10 scored and 1.17 conceded, in terms of goal difference these two are more or less the same. That makes this one feel more like a possible return to the old ways, where both sides duke it out, only for the game to end in a reasonably uneventful stalemate.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.02-3.66

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.48-1.62

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Sunday 12 April; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A nice double chance play showing high probability plus some decent odds.

• CXSports says: This used to be a fixture which heavily favored the home side, with just 2 out of the last 20 games ending in an away side victory (Aston Villa both times). But this time, we might see a break in that pattern, with Forest currently performing well below par relative to Villa. For comparison, Villa is currently maintaining a positive goal difference with 1.35 scored per game against 1.19 conceded, while Forest is negative on the balance, with 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded. With that said, Villa’s recent league performance hasn’t been great, with 3 losses and just a single victory in their last 5. And if that pattern continues into this game, it might just be enough to see an otherwise inferior Forest side uphold the home-side-advantage pattern, even if Villa’s technically superior here.

• Score prediction: 2-1 or 1-2 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Forest / Villa)

• Odds Range: 1.23-1.37

Option #2

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 2.30-2.75

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

⚽ Sunderland vs Tottenham
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Sunday 12 April; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Considering the fact Tottenham hasn’t had a single victory in 13 games straight (and has only managed to draw against Sunderland in recent head-to-heads), the double chance play here looks exceptionally solid.

• CXSports says: Tottenham are a mess right now — the last time they managed to win a game was all the way back in December. Since then, they’ve played 13 games ending in 5 draws and 8 losses. That’s only worked to put them under pressure as they slip towards the relegation zone and deal with managerial change. Sunderland, on the other hand, are doing the basics well. They’re picking up results when they can and keeping their scoring stats reasonably in check (1.03 scored against 1.16 conceded). That makes this one look like a probable Sunderland victory. Our only hesitation here is Sunderland’s modest scoring stats, and the fact that one of Tottenham’s 5 draws we mentioned before was against Sunderland. That leaves open the slight possibility of a draw, although in terms of probabilities, this outcome’s a distant second to a Sunderland victory.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Sunderland

Option #1

• Bet: Sunderland Victory

• Odds Range: 2.25-2.78

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Sunderland / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.30-1.52

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

⚽ Chelsea vs Man City
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Sunday 12 April; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: You couldn’t ask for better odds on such a clear favorite. Possibly one of the best value picks this week.

• CXSports says: Man City’s unbeaten in its last 13 head-to-heads against Chelsea (10W and 3D over 5 years). Man City’s also doing much better in the league compared with Chelsea — they’ve got 4W/1D/0L in their last 5, while Chelsea only has a somewhat embarrassing 1W/1D/3L. Man City also score more than Chelsea, with 2.00 goals per game on average vs Chelsea’s slightly more modest 1.71. And finally, Man City also concede considerably less than Chelsea, with just 0.93 conceded per game vs Chelsea’s 1.23. About the only thing running in Chelsea’s favor here is the supposed home-side advantage. But given the numbers and the track record between these two, that’s unlikely to count for much here.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.75-2.24

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.33-1.51

▶▶ Find the Best Odds

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Yesterday, your favorite newsletter’s favorite newsletter dropped an issue about the revival of the Olympic Games that’s well worth a read.

And while we’re not going to share all the details here (you can read about it here), there was a nice quote of the day we wanted to share.

Now obviously, it’s hard for us to get totally on board with this one. As blue-blooded odds and predictions fans, there’s nothing better than a good ol’ triumph.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t see the hidden truth here.

That hidden truth is that there is still value in the struggle. Even when we don’t win, there are always lessons to be learned and character to be built.

And when you learn enough lessons and build enough character, victory becomes inevitable.

Want to learn more about the Olympic Games?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Olympic Games Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [C] — 1977 was the last time Tottenham was relegated from the first division, after which they bounced back within one year. Discover more trivia like this with the Tottenham Hotspur Trivia Quiz.