Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

There are plenty of stereotypes Italians like to pretend aren’t true.

Hand gestures are one of ‘em.

But so is too much passion.

And yes, it’s true. Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca proved it this week when he copped an £8,000 fine and a one-match ban for… you guessed it… having too passion.

According to the FA, his little run-down-the-touchline celebration during Chelsea’s last-minute triumph over Forest was “improper… and/or abusive and/or insulting” to sterile British sensibilities.

And on that note, here’s what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s top EPL odds & predictions. 🦵⚽

• A little EFL mischief. 🏟️✨

• Who said “who said that!?” and why it matters. 🔥

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⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Chelsea’s advantage here is so huge that the odds available are almost hard to believe. By far the best value pick this week.

• CXSports says: Chelsea comes into this game with a positive goal difference (+4) and their bellies full of steam after beating Liverpool, thus breaking their short winless streak. Forest, on the other hand, is sitting way back in 17th with an embarrassing goal difference (-7) and no victories to speak of for quite some time. With that said, what’s worse is Forest’s home “failed to score” rate, which is a shocking 67%. That sets up the very real possibility of Chelsea walking in and turning this one into a clean sheet.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Chelsea

Option #1

• Bet: Chelsea Victory

• Odds Range: 1.79-1.98

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 2.05-2.26

⚽ Brighton vs Newcastle
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With all the signs pointing towards a likely Brighton victory, the odds on this one are exceptionally solid.

• CXSports says: Brighton will probably carry a slight edge coming into this one. Their attacking stats (1.34 xG, ~12% conversion rate) show they’ve got what it takes to cause some trouble for Newcastle, even if the visitors are defensively solid on paper (5 clean sheets in 7 games). What will likely lead to Newcastle’s undoing is their poor attacking output (5 goals in 7), which means they’ll be fighting a steep uphill battle if Brighton manages to break through (and their stats suggest they will). Newcastle will also face the fact that Brighton generally goes undefeated in this fixture (3W, 2D in the last five) and will be defending that record at home.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 2.38-2.65

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.67

⚽ Burnley vs Leeds
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: These are some really solid odds if this one actually plays out as predicted. Sure, it’s a long(ish) shot, but it’s totally possible.

• CXSports says: Burnley’s had a pretty poor run of results this season, particularly if we only focus on their last five (4L, 1D). As for what’s contributing to that, it’s a case of ‘pretty much everything’ — they’re over-relying on a single man for goals (Jaidon Anthony) and have a leaky defense (second-highest goals conceded tally in the league). Leeds, for its part, hasn’t exactly had a stellar season either, although they do have a couple more positive results to show for their effort. With that said, Leeds doesn’t travel well, which might just leave enough room for Burnley to get a sneaky one through at some point in the game and tie up the scoreline for a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 2.80-3.35

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.75-1.95

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: We like the look of the BTTS play on this one — high probability, solid value in the odds. With that said, we’re not convinced enough about the outcome to back it.

• CXSports says: When Crystal Palace are playing on their home turf, they’ve had a tendency to make this fixture a tough one to crack for Bournemouth (undefeated in recent home games). And while Bournemouth will be arriving with some strong attacking form (11 scored this season), they’ll be down a key man in that line-up due to Enes Ünal sitting this one out, meaning that threat should be slightly muted. That will likely open the field up a little for Palace to make the most of its home advantage and historical edge in this. And while it won’t be a whitewash, Palace should just edge this one.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Crystal Palace

Option #1

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.54-1.79

Option #2

• Bet: Crystal Palace Victory

• Odds Range: 2.06-2.28

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

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Fun fact — for the last 40 years, the EFL has had a ban on alcohol that applies to anyone watching a match in a stadium.

This week, that rule was broken.

How?

With a 50-meter crane, of course.

Yep, one whiskey company and four lucky fans joined forces to have the sort of fun nobody has had for decades.

And speaking of fun you’ve probably not had for decades, here’s a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia about whiskey.

Question: What can significantly affect the flavor profile of a whisky?

• A: Type of grain used

• B: Length of aging

• C: Type of cask used

• D: All of the above

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Man City vs Everton
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s a nice, solid play. Nothing spectacular about it, but it certainly has some decent chances paired with some respectable odds.

• CXSports says: With City playing this one at home, they’ll be out to stamp their authority all over this one, so chances are we’ll see them dominate possession, force open spaces, and keep up relentless pressure. And while Everton might look to counter strongly after their attacking upgrades (Grealish’s influence might help carve out a chance or two here), we still expect them to struggle converting under the pressure of City’s defense. This should lead to a comfortable win for the home team… not a total runaway, but definitely enough to qualify as ‘convincing’.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Manchester City

Option #1

• Bet: Manchester City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.32-1.43

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.80-1.96

⚽ Sunderland vs Wolves
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Frankly, this might be the best value play all week. The only thing holding it back is that it’s not quite as sure as the Chelsea play we opened this week’s edition with earlier.

• CXSports says: Sunderland has certainly kicked off their campaign with a whole lotta momentum, particularly considering they’re a freshly-promoted team. Most impressively, their home record so far (2W, 1D) has demonstrated they’ve got what it takes to deliver when up against the best (which the Wolves, trailing the league in dead last position, definitely aren’t). That makes this game the perfect setup for Sunderland to push the pace, force mistakes, and get ahead early on in the game. Wolves might (and we must emphasize the might here) manage to sneak one through in response, but don’t expect that response to be anything Sunderland won’t get right back on top of.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Sunderland

Option #1

• Bet: Sunderland Victory

• Odds Range: 2.19-2.50

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.78-2.10

⚽ West Ham vs Brentford
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s nothing worth getting excited about (it’s really too close to call), but the BTTS play is still a reasonably solid bet.

• CXSports says: Brentford comes into this game with a few things pointing towards them having the upper hand here, number one of which has nothing to do with Brentford at all. Rather, it’s West Ham’s shocking breakdowns at home this season which has seen them conceding heavily in front of their home crowd (10 in 3 games). Of course, Brentford haven’t exactly been the perfect example of how to play on the road this season, but they have at least shown they have an offense that will likely make light work of West Ham’s leaky backline. That should be enough for the Bees to edge this one by a goal.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 2.50-2.00

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.51-1.70

⚽ Fulham vs Arsenal
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 18 Oct; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A nice, solid play with some half-decent odds on a very likely outcome.

• CXSports says: Arsenal’s dominance over just about everyone is pretty hard to ignore. But that dominance goes much further in head-to-heads with Fulham — they’ve never lost a single home game. And with Fulham not exactly performing at their all-time peak, that should set up a solid foundation for Arsenal to do what it does best — set up a strong foundation for control early on and dictate play throughout the game. That’s not to say Fulham will go down without a fight — they’ll probably be able to hold off a fully-fledged Arsenal assault, and they might even sneak a goal through at some point along the way. But all of that will ultimately be for nothing — Arsenal is the only real contender here.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.44-1.58

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.76-2.00

Make your sportsbook work for you!

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We wanted to close out this week by honoring Enzo Maresca. But when we went looking for quotes, all we found were things like “fantastic” (yep, it’s a real quote), and “we’ve got a very good coach.”

Not exactly the most inspiring or useful stuff.

But then we noticed this one kept popping up, and realized it’s actually good advice hiding in plain sight.

Moral of the story?

Whenever anyone says anything, whether it be criticism or advice, always ask yourself who’s saying it.

Often, asking that one simple question will tell you whether it’s even worth listening to.

Want to learn more about Enzo Maresca and Chelsea F.C.?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with The Chelsea F.C. Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [D] — the type of grain used, the length of aging, and the type of cask used can all impact the flavor of a whisky. Discover more trivia like this with The Whiskey as an Investment Quiz.