Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a pile of Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification playoff round matches ahead of us this week. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The complete match schedule for this week’s Europa games. 🗓️

• Our top three Europa qualification picks for this week. ✅

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We’ve got a killer series of games coming up this week across La Liga, Ligue 1, and (last but not least) the Premier League. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League

21 Aug Friday

• 21:00 — Arsenal vs Coventry City

22 Aug Saturday

• 13:30 — Hull City vs Man Utd

• 16:00 — Everton vs Crystal Palace

• 16:00 — Ipswich vs Sunderland

• 16:00 — Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

• 18:30 — Brentford vs Tottenham

23 Aug Sunday

• 15:00 — Brighton vs Aston Villa

• 15:00 — Man City vs Bournemouth

• 17:30 — Newcastle vs Liverpool

24 Aug Monday

• 21:00 — Fulham vs Chelsea

🇫🇷 Ligue 1

21 Aug Friday

• 20:45 — Marseille vs Strasbourg

22 Aug Saturday

• 17:15 — Lens vs Auxerre

• 20:45 — Le Mans vs Brest

• 20:45 — Nice vs Lorient

• 20:45 — Toulouse vs Lyon

• 20:45 — Troyes vs Paris FC

23 Aug Sunday

• 15:00 — Angers vs Lille

• 17:15 — Le Havre vs Monaco

🇪🇸 La Liga

21 Aug Friday

• 21:00 — Real Betis vs Real Sociedad

22 Aug Saturday

• 17:00 — Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla

• 19:30 — Valencia vs Celta Vigo

• 21:30 — Espanyol vs Real Madrid

23 Aug Sunday

• 17:00 — Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

• 19:30 — Getafe vs Racing Santander

• 21:30 — Elche vs Barcelona

24 Aug Monday

• 19:30 — Osasuna vs Levante

• 21:30 — Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Arsenal vs Coventry City
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Friday 21 August; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Arsenal conceded just 0.71 goals per game last season — the lowest figure in any of Europe's top five leagues.

  • Coventry City managed a a Championship-record 97 goal haul (in 46 games) last season, although that was achieved one division lower.

  • Haji Wright, Coventry's 17-goal top scorer will likely be absent for 12 weeks, removing one of their key attackers.

• CXSports says: This will be the first time freshly-promoted Coventry City will have faced off against Arsenal in well over a decade. And chances are, it’s not going to be a fun reunion for them. Arsenal spent last season with a defense so tight that it conceded just 0.71 goals per game — the tightest defence across Europe's five major leagues. And in doing so, it kept 19 clean sheets in 38 matches (50%). And now, the defending champions get to open the season at home, fresh off the back of a tidy 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield just a week ago.
  
  As for Coventry, they don’t appear to be the worst side out here. At least, not based on their Championship numbers. After all, they did score 97 goals in 46 Championship games last year (better than two goals a game), and at least fifteen more than anyone else in that division. And the more reassuring part of that tally is that they did it with depth rather than leaning on one or two super stars — seven of their players reached double-digit figures for combined goals and assists, which suggests they’ve got a well-distributed attacking front. Of course, we can’t help but discount some of those goals for the simple fact that they were scored a division below the Premier League against defences a long way removed from Arsenal's. Then we’ve also got to deal with the fact that their top-scorer (Haji Wright, who took 17 goals) is out for what his manager admits might be as much as twelve weeks with a quad injury. And while their attack is distributed enough that this shouldn’t cause a total collapse, it’s still going to make an impact.
  
  There also isn’t much relief for Coventry in the head-to-head history, as stale as it is (last meeting was in 2014). Across the last 5 head-to-heads, Arsenal won the last five with an aggregate score of 16-2. And let’s not forget that the Premier League is rarely kind to freshly promoted teams who have generally struggled with the shock of the step up.
  
  As such, expect Arsenal to dominate this game and take the victory with ease.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Arsenal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.24

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.39-1.62

⚽ Hull City vs Man United
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 22 August; 13:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Hull have never beaten Manchester United in the Premier League, with United winning 8 in 10 with an aggregate scoreline of 22-7.

  • United were the Premier League's best team over the back half of last season with 41 points from 19 games.

  • Hull are making their top-flight return with about ten first-team players injured, including their first-choice goalkeeper. Meanwhile, United are close to full strength.

• CXSports says: Hull City are back in the Premier League for the first time in nine years. So that should at least be fun for the home crowd, which will probably be loud, sold out, and drunk on the novelty of hosting one of the biggest clubs in the world. Unfortunately, none of that’s likely to score many (if any) goals. At least, not without a functioning squad, which Hull seems to be lacking as we speak with about ten of their first-team players currently injured, including their main goalkeeper Jack Butland, which means a debutant (Konstantinos Tzolakis) gets chucked straight into the deep end against a United front line that, if they’re anything like they were last season, is one of the best in the league.
  
  And things only look even better for Man United once we look past their attacking numbers in isolation. Last season, they finished third with 71 points and a +19 goal difference. What’s more, they took 41 points from their final 19 games under, which made them the best second-half performer in the division. Meanwhile, while Hull got promoted on the back of some hard work and, arguably, a whole lot of good fortune — last season, they conceded 66 goals in the Championship (the fourth-worst defensive record in the second tier) and posted an expected-goal difference of around -20, which is one of the worst underlying profiles of any promoted side in recent history). And chances are, a defense that leaked that badly against Championship opposition is going to have a tough time once faced with one of the Premier League’s heaviest hitters.
  
  History also doesn’t offer much relief for Hull — in ten previous head-to-heads against United in the Premier League, they’ve lost eight, drawn two, and won none while shipping 22 goals and scoring just 7. And based on their recent numbers, that history probably describes the shape of how this one’s going to go down.
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, let’s not forget the did manage to finish with a positive goal difference, despite having one of the worst defenses in the Championship. So don’t be surprised if they manage to net a goal, since they can clearly score. Just don’t expect it to be enough to make any real difference here. The most likely outcome is that United walks away with the full three points, along with a multi-goal winning margin.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Man United

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Man United Victory

• Odds Range: 1.23-1.45

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.52-1.75

⚽ Elche vs Barcelona
🏟️ Spanish La Liga
📅 Sunday 23 August; 21:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Barcelona has won twelve straight head-to-heads with Elche and hasn’t dropped a point against them in over a decade.

  • Since 2014, across fifteen head-to-heads, Barcelona’s outscored Elche 46 goals to 5.

  • Elche's most recent victory over Barcelona was in 1974, and every single one of their historic wins over the club came at home — the one flicker of hope the Martínez Valero crowd can cling to.

• CXSports says: To know how this one’s going to play out, we don’t really need to look any further than the head-to-head history between these two, which is, to put it mildly, brutally one-sided. Barcelona has beaten Elche twelve times in a row and hasn’t surrendered so much as a single point to them since a goalless draw in May 2014. And it’s not like that streak’s built on a run of marginal wins and a bit of good luck. Over their last fifteen games Barcelona’s scored 46 goals to Elche's 5 — a goal difference of +41 for Barcelona. And as if that wasn’t bad enough, the last time Elche actually won a game in this fixture was all the way back in 1974. Since then, the best they’ve managed is to draw.
  
  And it’s not like recent form is going to change this balance. Elche’s opening the season as a modest scoring team, with about 1.2 goals per game across their recent games, and a 1-1 draw away at Deportivo to start the campaign, which pretty much confirmed them as a tidy but toothless opponent. Barcelona, on the other hand, are the reigning champions (who lifted the 2025-26 title with no less than 94 points). And they’re arriving with a squad stacked full of World Cup internationals with plenty of high-level football in the legs already (and, just as importantly, a decent enough break since). So while this might technically be Barcelona's first competitive fixture of the season, about half of the squad is arriving in fighting form.
  
  As such, about the best we can probably expect from Elche is a fight — just enough to frustrate Barcelona for a little while, and maybe even steal an opportunistic goal. However, even if Barcelona starts off a little rough, their superior quality will ultimately settle the game in the second half.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Barcelona

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Barcelona Victory

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.36

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.32-1.49

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back next week as we look ahead to the second leg of the ongoing Champions League qualification playoff round.

Until the, enjoy the football.