Good Morning ☀️,
It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?
Happy Friday everyone. We’ve got a BIG weekend ahead with a massive bunch of fixtures across Europe’s top domestic leagues, along with a selection of sure things. So let’s get straight into it.
What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:
This weekend’s top-flight match schedule. 🗓️
Our top three picks for the weekend. ✅
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THIS WEEKEND’S MATCH SCHEDULE [PREMIER LEAGUE + LA LIGA + LIGUE 1 + BUNDESLIGA]
We’ve got a big weekend ahead across all of Europe’s top domestic leagues. Here’s the full schedule. (Note: all dates and times are in CET)
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
Friday 30 October
19:00 — Le Havre vs PSG
19:00 — Nice vs Rennes
21:05 — Lille vs Lens
Saturday 31 October
20:45 — Troyes vs Le Mans
Sunday 01 November
15:00 — Strasbourg vs Auxerre
17:15 — Lyon vs Angers
17:15 — Paris FC vs Monaco
20:45 — Marseille vs Toulouse
🇪🇸 La Liga
Friday 30 October
21:00 — Villarreal vs Espanyol
Saturday 31 October
14:00 — Levante vs Atletico Madrid
16:15 — Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
18:30 — Real Betis vs Malaga
21:00 — Barcelona vs Alaves
Sunday 01 November
14:00 — Getafe vs Sevilla
16:15 — Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
18:30 — Elche vs Valencia
21:00 — Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
🇩🇪 Bundesliga
Friday 30 October
20:30 — SV Elversberg vs Mainz
Saturday 31 October
15:30 — Augsburg vs Freiburg
15:30 — Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
15:30 — Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
15:30 — Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
15:30 — Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
18:30 — Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Sunday 01 November
15:30 — Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
17:30 — Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg
🏴 Premier League
Saturday 31 October
13:30 — Chelsea vs Man Utd
16:00 — Bournemouth vs Leeds
16:00 — Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
16:00 — Coventry City vs Sunderland
16:00 — Hull City vs Ipswich
16:00 — Man City vs Brighton
18:30 — Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
21:00 — Aston Villa vs Fulham
Sunday 01 November
17:30 — Liverpool vs Arsenal
Want to get the best odds on these matches?
TODAY’S TOP PICKS
⚽ Le Havre vs PSG
🏟️ Ligue 1 (France)
📅 Friday 30 October; 19:00 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Le Havre have only scored two goals in four home games this season and haven’t won a home game in nine.
Le Havre’s defence conceded 11 goals in their last four games (while losing all four).
PSG has won five straight games with an aggregate of 11-3.
CXSports says: Facts are hard to ignore. And the facts here say that Le Havre is the weakest team in the league on just about every measure. They are 18th of 18 with two points from eight games. They scored just 1.0 goals a game while conceding 1.9 in a league where the average side does 1.5 each way. And, as if that wasn’t bad enough, at home they’re even worse — they’ve only scored two goals in four league games this season and have no home league win in nine straight matches. And that’s not all — it gets even worse. Their defence is deteriorating with a pretty clear trend — after only conceding four goals in the first four league games, they’ve now gone on to concede eleven in their last four.
Now, of course, for all of their woes, there is one potential sign of hope. Last weekend, Le Havre lost 4-3 at Marseille, which is hardly the sort of scoreline “the worst team in the league” would generally achieve at Marseille. However, there’s some fine print that’s worth reading here. They were 4-0 down before they managed to score. And all three of their goals make up more than a third of their season’s total of eight. And that means the other seven games produced just five between them. So make of that what you will — either it’s a sign they’re getting the offense together. Or it’s an exceptional anomaly taken against an overly complacent Marseille that lulled itself into thinking 4-0 meant it could fall asleep at the wheel.
As for PSG, what do we need to say? They have six straight wins in six straight matches across all competitions with 18 goals scored against just 7 conceded. And yes, they are without their star forward, their captain, and one winger, and there’s a good chance they will rotate somewhat given they have a Champions League trip just four days away. But does any of that really matter against the worst team in the league? No, it doesn’t.
As such, we expect a clean PSG win here, albeit with fewer fireworks than one might expect given the paper differences — between missing players and potential rotation, we won’t be surprised to see a slow start.Score prediction: 0-2 for PSG
Bet Option #1
Bet: PSG Victory
Odds Range: 1.19-1.36
Bet Option #2
Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)
Odds Range: 2.04-2.28
⚽ Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
🏟️ Bundesliga (Germany)
📅 Saturday 31 October; 18:30 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Bayern has 25 goals scored in seven games (3.57 a game) — twice as many goals as an average Bundesliga team.
Dortmund’s only clean sheets came against teams now in 11th place or lower.
Bayern haven’t lost to Dortmund in the last five head-to-heads (three wins, two draws, 10-7 on aggregate).
CXSports says: Let’s do some maths. Bayern’s currently scoring at a rate of 3.57 goals a game (25 scored in 7 games). Meanwhile, the league average is 1.78. Now divide Bayern’s goal average by the league average and round down to the nearest whole number, and you should get a number that looks something like “2”. And here’s the best part (for Bayern) — 18 of the 25 goals contributing to its massive goal average came in three home games. And this match is a home game.
As for Dortmund, they’re not terrible — they’ve scored 12 in seven, or 1.71 a game, which leaves them just shy of the league average. But, if we’re being honest here, an average attack against a twice-the-average attack (and even better at home) doesn’t really stand much of a chance unless they can somehow lay claim to having a very good (if not exceptional) defence.
On the plus side, Dortmund’s defense isn’t nothing — they’ve only conceded four goals in seven games, and they’ve kept five clean sheets. And that sounds good, right? That is, until you do a little more math — with five clean sheets, that means they conceded all four of their goals in just 2 games. And once you look at who those five clean sheets were against, that 4-conceded-in-7-games tally doesn’t look so great. Why? Because all five clean sheets came against teams now sitting 11th or lower. What’s more, the best side Dortmund has met all season was 6th-placed Bremen, who scored twice against them in the league and twice again in the cup. Meanwhile, Bayern’s actually been tested against top-five competition twice this season (Freiburg in 3rd and Leipzig in 5th), and it beat both of them with a 9-2 aggregate scoreline. So, given that context, it’s probably not worth getting too excited about Dortmund’s defensive prospects against Bayern.
As such, expect Bayern to dominate this one and score multiple goals, with the only real positive thing to come from Dortmund being a potential goal.Score prediction: 3-1 for Bayern Munich
Bet Option #1
Bet: Bayern Munich Victory
Odds Range: 1.22-1.40
Bet Option #2
Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)
Odds Range: 1.18-1.27
⚽ Barcelona vs Alaves
🏟️ La Liga (Spain)
📅 Saturday 31 October; 21:00 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Barcelona has 40 goals in 10 home games this season, while the next-best side (Real Madrid) has just 25.
Alaves don’t score on the road, with just 3 goals in 4 away games (0.75 a game).
Alavés have zero wins in their last six league games, along with an aggregate of 4 goals scored against 8 conceded.
CXSports says: If we look at just one half of the numbers here, this game looks like it could be close — the two defences here are identical, with both sides having conceded exactly 11 goals in 10 games. However, if we look at the other half of the numbers, things suddenly look much more unbalanced.
For its part, Barcelona currently scores precisely 4 goals a game — 40 scored in 10 games played. Alaves, meanwhile, only scores 1.4 a game (14 goals in 10 games).
Based on that alone, we think it’s pretty safe to say that this game has only one realistic outcome in terms of who wins or looses. And it’s clear the team on the winning half of that equation is going to be Barcelona. So the only real question is about the scoreline — can Alaves score anything, and can they keep Barcelona on a tighter leash?
As for the scoring bit, we don’t hold high hopes for Alaves — they’ve only scored 3 goals in 4 away games this season. Meanwhile, their last six league games delivered just 4 goals scored (against 8 conceded). Oh, and not that this is relevant to their scoring chances here, but those last six games delivered zero and just 2 points out of the 18 on the table. And that includes a loss at home to Valencia (19th of 20) and a draw against Malaga (bottom of the table). So it’s safe to say that not only is Alaves a side that can’t win — it’s a side that can’t score (much).
As such, expect this to end in a clear Barcelona win with a slim chance of Alaves even managing to get on the scoreboard.Score prediction: 3-0 for Barcelona.
Bet Option #1
Bet: Barcelona Victory
Odds Range: 1.05-1.12
Bet Option #2
Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)
Odds Range: 1.15-1.23
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WHAT’S COMING UP
That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back on Monday with plenty more, including a look ahead at the upcoming Round 4 in the UEFA Champions League.
Until then, enjoy the football.
