Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Happy Monday everyone. Time for a change of pace. After a couple of back-to-back weeks of Champions League and Europa League games, this week sees the European competitions taking pause. Instead, today we’re previewing a couple of smaller domestic cups. Let’s get into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• German DFB Cup and English League Cup match schedules. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this week’s DFB Cup and League Cup games. ✅

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Over the coming days, we’ve got a nice little run of matches coming up across the German DFB Cup and the English League Cup. (Note: all dates and times are in CET)

🇩🇪 DFB Cup

Tuesday 27 October

• 18:00 — Hamburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt

• 18:00 — Rot Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig

• 18:00 — Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg

• 18:00 — VfL Bochum vs Mainz

• 20:45 — Borussia Monchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC

• 20:45 — Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

• 20:45 — FC Cologne vs Union Berlin

• 20:45 — SV Elversberg vs SV Darmstadt 98

Wednesday 28 October

• 18:00 — Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04

• 18:00 — Freiburg vs Wolfsburg

• 18:00 — SC Paderborn 07 vs Stuttgart

• 18:00 — SSV Jeddeloh vs Hertha BSC

• 20:45 — Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg

• 20:45 — Bayern Munich vs Magdeburg

• 20:45 — Hannover 96 vs Kaiserslautern

• 20:45 — Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 League Cup

Tuesday 27 October

• 20:45 — Bradford City vs Peterborough United

• 21:00 — Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

Wednesday 28 October

• 20:30 — Man City vs Brighton

• 20:45 — Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

• 20:45 — Fulham vs Crystal Palace

• 20:45 — Sunderland vs Brentford

• 21:00 — Liverpool vs Chelsea

Thursday 29 October

• 20:45 — Everton vs Newcastle

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
🏟️ English League Cup
📅 Tuesday 27 October; 21:00 (CET)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Arsenal are not just three divisions higher than Fleetwood, but sitting at the top of the table of that division (tied for first place on points) while Fleetwood sits in 18th (of 24) in League Two.

  • Fleetwood are in a slump with just one win in seven since their 1-0 cup win on 16 September while being outscored 13-8 since.

  • The only game either side has played against Premier League opposition in this season’s League Cup competition was Arsenal’s game against Ipswich, where Arsenal still won 4-2 despite heavy rotation.

• CXSports says: There’s not much doubt about this one — Arsenal win this easily because even their reserves play three divisions above the Fleetwood side they’re playing here. Indeed, the difference here is so big that even if you count up all 92 professional clubs in England: Arsenal’s 2nd overall (tied or first on points with Man City), while Fleetwood’s are 86th (18th in League 2). What’s more, Arsenal probably doesn’t just win this — they’ll probably do it with a clean sheet.
  
  For comparison, Arsenal currently concede at a rate of around 0.63 goals a game against a typical Premier League average of 1.39. Meanwhile, playing in League Two, Fleetwood only manages to score 1.15 a game while a typical League Two side scores 1.29. In other words, Arsenal’s got an elite defense in an elite league., while Fleetwood’s got a subpar offense in against the bottom tier of English professional football. And what’s worse is that Fleetwood seems to be getting worse — they’ve only had one win in seven games since mid-September, with 13 goals conceded, and defeats of 4-2 and 2-1 in just the last week.
  
  With that said, there is reason to believe this won’t result in a ridiculous winning margin for Arsenal here. First, there’s a good chance they’ll be rotating heavily for this game. And second, Fleetwood does seem to know how to defend somewhat, albeit against much weaker competition. Here, they haven’t conceded in three cup games this season, with two of those three clean sheets coming against fellow League Two sides while the third came against the second-tier Sheffield United side. Although that latter one should probably be discounted — Sheffield only created chances worth 0.73 goals by expected-goal measures.
  
  As such, we expect Arsenal to win this cleanly by several goals, even if we expect Fleetwood to stop this from blowing out to some ridiculous 5+ winning margin. At the same time, we don’t expect Fleetwood to score anything — their offense is just too weak, while Arsenal’s offense is demonstrably elite.

• Score prediction: 0-3 for Arsenal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.04-1.13

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.36-1.52

⚽ SSV Jeddeloh vs Hertha BSC
🏟️ German DFB Cup
📅 Wednesday 28 October; 18:00 (CET)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Hertha are not just two divisions higher than Jeddeloh, they’re also better in their division — Hertha score 47% more than the average team and concede 41% less, while Jeddeloh score 21% less and concede 26% more.

  • Jeddeloh’s defence is particularly weak with 16 conceded in their last five games.

  • Hertha haven’t lost all season, with eight wins and a draw from nine league games.

• CXSports says: The gap between these clubs is “just” two divisions on paper. But the numbers behind each team’s performance this season make that gap even wider. At the moment, Hertha leads the second tier of German football by seven points while also being able to lay claim to having the third-best attack and second-best defence in that league. Meanwhile, Jeddeloh sits in the bottom half of the fourth tier of German football where they also have a sub-standard offense and defense. And they seem to be getting worse — in their last 5 they’ve conceded 16 goals, including  four goals in a single game at home to a team that’s now ranked 15th in its league. And just to throw another spanner in the works, Jeddeloh (unsurprisingly) fired its coach recently with his replacement (34 and in his first job in charge of a senior side) only being appointed days ago (October 18).
  
  Of course, for anyone following Jeddeloh, there’s always the temptation to believe the underdog story here — Jeddeloh beat Heidenheim (another second-tier side) 5-2 on this exact same ground just months ago in August. But don’t think this sets any sort of repeatable precedent. For context, at the time of its loss to Jeddeloh, Heidenheim had also lost 4-1 at Hertha the weekend before. So sure, while Jeddeloh technically has beat second-tier competition recently, it was hardly comparable to what they’ll be facing this week against Hertha.
  
  With that said, there’s good reason to believe we won’t be seeing a full-force Hertha in this game — their recent dry spell (just one goal scored in their last two league games) suggests they’re not quite operating at their peak. Although, we wouldn’t go so far as to say that means this one will see Hertha going quite so dry. Their last two games were, after all, against second-tier sides, Kiel and Bielefeld who concede 1.2 and 1.6 goals a game respectively, while Jeddeloh concedes 2.5 a game against attacks two divisions weaker.
  
  So how do we see this one playing out? Well, we like Jeddeloh’s chances of scoring a goal here (they’ve scored in five of their last six games, while Hertha concedes in two of every three games). However, Jeddeloh’s defense against Hertha’s attack will probably make that single irrelevant.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Hertha BSC

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Hertha BSC Victory

• Odds Range: 1.02-1.08

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.72-1.90

⚽ Bayern Munich vs Magdeburg
🏟️ German DFB Cup
📅 Wednesday 28 October; 20:45 (CET)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • In Bayern’s last five home games across all competitions, they’ve won four and outscored the visitors 25-4. The only game that wasn’t a victory was a draw against the reigning English champs.

  • Bayern win Bundesliga games by an average of 2.7 goals (25-6 in seven); Magdeburg win their second-tier games by 0.9 (20-12 in nine).

  • Magdeburg’s doesn’t travel well, with just one of four away games ending in a victory and  a 5-5 aggregate score.

• CXSports says: This should be an easy one for Bayern, and it’s not hard to see why. For starters, there’s the league gap — Bayern’s in the top flight of German football, while Magdeburg’s a full division lower. Second, this game is in Munich (Bayern shines at home while Magdeburg doesn’t travel well). And finally, even if we measure each side against its own league and pretend that’s equivalent, Bayern still comes out looking better, scoring twice the Bundesliga average and conceding at about half of it while Magdeburg scores just one and a half times the second-tier average while concede at about the average. Oh, and did we mention that Bayern’s already met a second-tier side this season (in the first round of this cup) and won that one by three goals (1-4) while playing on the road?
  
  To put some perspective on just how big the gap here is, look at Bayern’s home record this season — in five games they’ve won 4 and drawn one (against Arsenal, who aren’t exactly soft competition) while pulling an aggregate score of 25-4 Meanwhile, Magdeburg’s four away games this season have resulted in just a single victory and an aggregate score of 5-5.
  
  Now, of course, there are some “concerns” worth raising about Bayern ahead of this match — their head coach is in hospital while five players are sidelined with injuries, including their first-choice goalkeeper and a starting center-back. However, this might not result in the sort of collapse it might suggest. After all, their assistant who’s now in charge took the now-depleted Bayern squad to Freiburg (who’s third-placed in the Bundesliga) and won 3-1. And that was in one of the hardest away game on their league schedule this season. So we don’t really see how Magdeburg takes advantage of a situation that even Freiburg couldn’t capitalize on, particularly now that Bayern’s back at home.
  
  As for how this ends, we wouldn’t be surprised if Magdeburg gets a goal here. Bayern’s conceded in five of its last six games at an average of 1.5 conceded, while Magdeburg’s scored in eight of its last nine. However, even if they score once, that’s still going to be about as useful as a blank against a team that’s averaging five goals a game at home.

• Score prediction: 4-1 for Bayern Munich

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bayern Munich Victory

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.06

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.35-1.45

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But there’s still plenty to come this week, so keep your eyes peeled for our next edition.

Until then, enjoy the football.