Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We always suspected PSG’s fans were insane. But this week, they confirmed it when (and no, the following is not a typo…) PSG’s fans attacked PSG’s fans with “stones, pyrotechnic devices, and tear gas.”

But I guess that’s not surprising for a fan squad that went on a crazy riot last year all because… their team won.

Meanwhile, FIFA’s still causing controversy ahead of this year’s World Cup. (What’s new?) And we’re not just talking about World Cup ticket prices, which have gotten so absurd even Pep Guardiola felt the need to speak out this week. What’s really got people talking is a controversial new red card rule set to be introduced.

And here’s what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s top EPL odds & predictions. 🦵⚽

• Chelsea’s quest for the rarest treble in football. 🏟️✨

• A special insight you won’t want to miss. 🔥💪

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⚽ Leeds vs Burnley
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Friday 01 May; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s a nice, clear prediction to kick off the weekend’s EPL action.

• CXSports says: Leeds isn’t exactly sitting pretty as far as its Premier League standings go (#15, just a few places ahead of Burnley). But its recent form has actually been pretty decent — undefeated in the last 5 league games, and some respectable results slightly further back (including a loss to Man City where Leeds managed to keep City’s attack to just a single goal). And that’s a lot more than can be said about Burnley, who hasn’t won a single game since early February and has suffered 7 losses since while only salvaging 2 draws. So unless Burnley somehow manages to radically turn its form around between now and Friday (unlikely), this should end in a convincing victory for Leeds.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Leeds

Option #1

• Bet: Leeds Victory

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.47

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.25

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Brentford vs West Ham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 02 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s a solid double chance play here with some decent odds once you consider the probabilities here.

• CXSports says: At first glance, this one should lean strongly in Brentford’s favor — they’re sitting smack bang in the middle of the table while West Ham’s stuck in the relegation zone, they score about 0.2 goals per game more than West Ham, and concede about 0.4 goals per game less. But look at Brentford’s recent form — their last 5 league games have all ended in draws (and there was an FA Cup game in the middle of that which also ended in a draw). And, the last time these two met (March), that game also ended in a draw. That paints a picture of a Brentford side that’s struggling to finish when it counts. And if that’s the Brentford we see this Saturday, then this game could very well end in a draw, even if Brentford are technically better.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Brentford or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Brentford / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.35

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.38-1.60

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Newcastle vs Brighton
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 02 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Newcastle’s volatility has pushed up the odds on Brighton massively — this is perhaps the best value play we have this week.

• CXSports says: Newcastle are coming into this one with 4 straight losses in their wake. Brighton, on the other hand, are arriving undefeated in their last 5 games (4W/1D). What’s more, they’re consistently scoring in recent games, with a minimum of 2 goals per game in their last 4. That makes Brighton look like a top-8 side, while Newcastle’s a team drifting toward relegation (they’re clear and safe… but a trend’s been established). And if that wasn’t enough, Brighton are unbeaten in the last 6 head-to-heads between these two (4W/2D). About the only thing working in Newcastle’s favor here is their home advantage and their infamous volatility that can see them occasionally deliver shock results — a little like the 0-1 victory they took on the road against Chelsea in the game before their current 4-game losing streak. With that said, volatility’s unpredictable — that makes Brighton the safer one to back here.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 2.20-2.75

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Newcastle / Brighton)

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.33

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Wolves vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 02 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Assuming the Wolves have made a return to their old ways (losing basically every match), Sunderland’s extremely good value here.

• CXSports says: With losses to both Tottenham and West Ham in the last couple of weeks, the Wolves seem to have gone back to their old ways. Not that it really changes much for them — they were basically already guaranteed relegation come the end of this season anyway. For us, however, it does change things. With the Wolves settling down, Sunderland’s looking like a reasonably safe shot in this one, even if their recent form is only marginally better than the Wolves in terms of results in their last 5. Simply put, when you’ve got a mid-table squad (Sunderland) that’s averaging much better stats than a relegation contender (Wolves), that mid table squad is far more likely to come out on top in an average game. And, if the Wolves have settled back down, then an average result is exactly what we should expect here.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Sunderland

Option #1

• Bet: Sunderland Victory

• Odds Range: 2.05-2.41

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.14-1.29

▶▶ Full Match Details

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

As the World Cup draws near and the regular season nears its close, Chelsea finds itself faced with an opportunity — a shot at claiming the rarest domestic treble in English football.

That treble includes:

• Secure a Champions League spot

• Win the FA Cup

• Relegate Tottenham

The first two points on that list shouldn’t need much explaining. But as for why relegating Tottenham is such an achievement, for that you have to dig into the history books — all the way back to the 1967 FA Cup Final. Since then, the Chelsea-Tottenham rivalry has been very much a thing.

In any case, if Chelsea succeeds, it won’t be Chelsea’s first multi-achievement feat in domestic football.

So let’s see if you know about another one of their achievements with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: In which season did Chelsea FC first complete a domestic double (winning both the Premier League and the FA Cup)?

• A: 2004-05

• B: 2009-10

• C: 2011-12

• D: 2014-15

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Arsenal vs Fulham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 02 May; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Arsenal’s recent slump has pushed the odds up compared to where they’d usually sit in this fixture. If Arsenal can bring a little of its usual self to this game, then this one’s great value.

• CXSports says: As we predicted last week, Arsenal’s made a return to their winning ways after the better part of a week off. So does that mean we should expect more of the same this week? Probably. But it’s not guaranteed. Based on their performance against Newcastle (where they only scored a single goal, despite Newcastle usually not being that great in defense), it’s clear Arsenal’s still not quite back to its former self. And this week, they’ll be taking on Fulham after a short 3-day break from their UCL semifinal appearance against Atletico Madrid. Of course, Fulham is a rather mediocre mid-table side with a slightly negative goal balance (-2) and the usual “balanced” mix of results that often characterize sides here. So, in theory, Arsenal should be capable of beating them, even on an off day. As such, we’re still tipping Arsenal to take this one, albeit with fewer guarantees than we would’ve given if this fixture had taken place just a few weeks ago.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.50

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.61-1.85

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 03 May; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s got an exceptionally solid double chance given Bournemouth’s 15-game unbeaten streak.

• CXSports says: If we had to describe Bournemouth, it’d have to be something along the lines of “they love a little equilibrium”. For starters, just look at their goal balance of 0, with 52 scored and 52 conceded after 34 games. Then there’s also their love of draws — 16 so far this season (more than any other side in the league). Of course, Palace isn’t exactly unbalanced, either. While they do have more losses on the board, they do have a pretty even mix of results (11W/10D/12L). And while they are also carrying a slightly negative goal balance, it’s still reasonably balanced at -3. So, what sets these two apart? Well, not much, aside from the fact that Bournemouth is undefeated in 15 straight Premier League games (6W/9D). That suggests there’s an exceedingly low chance that they’ll lose this one. What is less certain however, is whether they’ll win or draw — Bournemouth hasn’t won a home game since January, and has been held to draws at home by much lesser sides, including a recent 2-2 against Leeds just last week.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Bournemouth or 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Bournemouth / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.12-1.21

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.47

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Man United vs Liverpool
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 03 May; 16:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While there’s no real prediction here, the over/under and BTTS play look solid given the head-to-head history.

• CXSports says: Telling the difference between these two is more or less impossible. Yes, Man United is slightly better in all regards. But the keyword there is slightly — they’ve only got one table position over Liverpool, 3 more points on the table, 3 more goals scored, and 2 fewer goals conceded compared to Liverpool. But, after 34 games, differences of 2-3 only work out to about 0.06-0.09 goals/points per game, which is a rounding error at most. Also, both sides have 3W/1D/1L from their last 5, so there isn’t even much of a difference in form here. As such, all we’re left with is a narrow edge for Man United simply because they’re insignificantly stronger across all stats, and the fact they’ll be playing this one at home. With that said, this fixture has only gone -2.5 goals a single time in the last 10 head-to-heads. And with a likely minimum of 3 goals while both sides more or less performing identically, we can probably expect to see goals on the board for both teams here.

• Score prediction: 2-1 or 1-2 for either side, or draw.

Option #1

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.28-1.46

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.52

▶▶ Full Match Details

⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 03 May; 20:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Great odds if you believe Villa will perform in line with their stats and H2H history. But maybe worth skipping if you suspect fatigue and recent volatility will dictate.

• CXSports says: If the only thing you did was look at the table and recent head-to-head history, you’d think this one’s not even close. After all, we’ve got a 5th-placed side (Villa) playing at home against a relegation-ranked side (Tottenham) on the road. And as far as head-to-heads go, Villa’ has won the last four matches straight, including an away victory at Tottenham in January. But here’s the catch — while Villa should win in theory, they just proved that theory doesn’t always match reality after last week’s loss to Fulham. They’ll also be carrying additional fatigue this week with this match taking place just three days after today’s Forest vs Villa game in the Europa League. With that said, relative league performances and head-to-head history are hard to ignore. So Villa remains the favorite here — just maybe not as strong of a favorite as they would be under more ‘average’ circumstances.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 1.90-2.27

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Aston Villa / Tottenham)

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.31

▶▶ Full Match Details

Make your sportsbook work for you!

If Chelsea relegates Tottenham this season, it won’t just be a big achievement because of their rivalry. Until recently, relegating Tottenham seemed impossible.

To give a little background, Tottenham hasn’t been relegated from the top flight since 1977. And, with a billion-dollar stadium and massive revenues, Tottenham is supposed to be a “Big Six” club for whom relegation should be impossible.

Yet here we are — Tottenham could actually face relegation this year.

And that should act as a reminder for us all.

In the words of the great Benjamin Disraeli, no matter how well you might be doing today, “never take anything for granted.”

Tottenham’s proof that this one rings true.

Want to learn more about Benjamin Disraeli?

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»» Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Benjamin Disraeli quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [B] — Chelsea won its first ever FA Cup + Premier League title in the 2009-10 season. Discover more trivia like this with the Chelsea FC Trivia Quiz.