Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, a new word’s going viral — kacktor. It’s German. And apparently, it literally translates to “sh*t goal”.

The story goes, German broadcaster WDR created a “sh*t goal of the year” segment.

Then, someone from the anglophone world liked it, started spreading it, and suddenly, even ‘respectable’ outlets like the Guardian are writing about it.

As for what kacktor actually means — think goals that are hilariously bad. Like balls bouncing off the back of someone's head, only to then be fumbled by the goal keeper bad.

So, vocab + etymology lesson out of the way, here’s what’s up in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s best EPL odds. 🦵⚽

• The greatest kacktor of all time. 💩⚽

• A nice little Gary Neville quote. 🔥💪

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⚽ Burnley vs Tottenham
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 24 January; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With the Spurs having a decent chance at coming out on top here, these odds are worth a look.

• CXSports says: Burnley’s pattern so far has been a defensive breakdown combined with a lack of cutting edge. They’re conceding close to 1.9 goals per game and averaging barely over 1. That could indicate they’ll have trouble keeping the Spurs in check, particularly given the Spurs' slightly better ‘creative’ abilities (even if it’s with some inconsistency), which has allowed them to maintain around 1.4 goals per match while conceding just over 1.3. The head-to-head history backs this up, too — Tottenham overwhelmingly lead here, and their earlier 3-0 victory this season shows they can cleanly deal with Burnley. With that said, while Tottenham is better on paper, they are playing this one on the road, which does create some uncertainty.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Tottenham

Option #1

• Bet: Tottenham Victory

• Odds Range: 1.65-2.12

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.35

⚽ Fulham vs Brighton
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 24 January; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s so tight it might be one of those rare occasions where backing the long odds of a draw is worth it.

• CXSports says: There isn’t much in this one. Both teams are placed similarly in the mid-table, are showing similar quality, and, statistically, are very close to each other. Fulham, for its part, is averaging around 1.36 goals a game while Brighton’s averaging around 1.45. And both are conceding at similar rates, too, although Brighton is slightly better. We see further similarity if we pull up historical head-to-heads, too. Here, things are fairly evenly split, and recent meetings have generally featured goals from both sides. As such, expect this one to playout competitively, maybe even to the point of ending in a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 2.70-3.54

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.67

⚽ Man City vs Wolves
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 24 January; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With the Wolves having a bit of good luck lately, the odds on Man City have ticked up nicely.

• CXSports says: First, let’s give credit where credit is due. In their last 5 games, the Wolves have only lost a single match. That’s quite the turnaround considering how they started off the season, even if it is too little, too late. Unfortunately, that’s probably about where the good news stops for the Wolves, with City being, by far, the toughest opponent they’ve seen for a while. After all, if Wolves are only just managing to scrape through for a draw against mid-table sides, what hope do they have against the league’s #2 side — a side that’s scoring over 2 goals per game while conceding under 1 per match? If we’re being serious here, they don’t.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.11-1.26

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.25-1.45

⚽ Bournemouth vs Liverpool
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 24 January; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Big odds on Liverpool if you’re willing to overlook their recent tendency to draw matches.

• CXSports says: Bournemouth can be solid on their home turf, where they’re currently averaging about 1.6 goals per game. And this matters when facing a Liverpool back line that’s been showing some defensive vulnerabilities. However, the gulf in quality and attacking depth, combined with Liverpool’s overwhelming historical dominance (18-2), can’t be ignored. With that said, Liverpool’s recent draws do show they’re in a phase where they’re capable of controlling games without finishing them. And that could easily see this game start to stalemate. However, so long as they can harness their shot creation and consistent scoring edge, they should eventually be able to break down a Bournemouth defense that’s known to occasionally leak goals.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Liverpool

Option #1

• Bet: Liverpool Victory

• Odds Range: 1.73-1.96

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.37-1.59

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

In case you were still confused about what a kacktor is, here’s our nomination for the greatest kacktor or all time:

Paul Robinson vs Croatia (Euro 2008 Qualifier, 2007)

Here’s what happened:

• Gary Neville (England) passes the ball back gently.

• Paul Robinson (England) sets himself up to clear it.

• As Robinson goes to kick it, the ball hits a small divot.

• Robinson’s foot passes under the ball.

• The ball continues to roll. Slowly. Towards the goal.

• Ball rolls in, Croatia “score” a goal without touching the ball.

What makes it even funnier is Gary Neville’s involvement. He was one of England’s greats — so much so, he reached more caps than most.

Let’s see if you know how many with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: How many caps did Gary Neville earn for England?

• A: 72

• B: 85

• C: 94

• D: 100

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 25 January; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: While Brentford’s not guaranteed here, their chances are definitely better than the odds suggest.

• CXSports says: Brentford’s numbers, while not spectacular, are solid. They’re averaging 1.65 goals per match while keeping a decent handle on their defense with about 1.33 conceded per game. That offensive reliability contrasts with Forest, who are currently leaking about 1.86 goals per match while only managing about 1.40 in their favor. That suggests Brentford has the edge here. With that said, we can’t ignore the fact that Forest can, occasionally, survive against much tougher competition — their recent 0-0 vs Arsenal being a highlight. However, their otherwise flimsy stats and the simple fact that they’re firmly in the relegation scrap mean we can safely say they struggle to do so with any consistency. As such, it’s reasonably safe to say Brentford should walk away from this one with the scoreline in their favor.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 1.75-2.10

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.82

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 25 January; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: There’s enough here to make Chelsea a pretty convincing pick.

• CXSports says: Palace and Chelsea are more or less equals when it comes to defense — they’re both leaking an average of about 1.1 goals per game (with Chelsea doing marginally better). However, that’s about where the similarities stop. For starters, Chelsea’s attack is much more consistent, delivering somewhere in the range of around 1.6 goals per game. Palace, by contrast, is scoring less than they concede and is barely managing to keep its goals-per-game average above 1. What’s worse, Palace also finds itself somewhat kneecapped at the moment, between internal disruptions and a thin squad (only 12-13 available), they’re not exactly in a happy place. That should open the door for Chelsea to take this one, even if they are the ones playing on the road.

• Score prediction: 0-1 for Chelsea

Option #1

• Bet: Chelsea Victory

• Odds Range: 1.65-2.10

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.80-2.15

⚽ Newcastle vs Aston Villa
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 25 January; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one’s maybe a bit too close for a pure moneyline play, but the BTTS looks solid.

• CXSports says: According to the odds, Newcastle is the favorite here. But look at the underlying numbers here — Villa score about 1.5 goals per match and concede around 1.14, while Newcastle score 1.45 and concede 1.23. That’s only a marginal difference, yes, but Villa’s slightly superior offensive efficiency and defensive record do give them a slight edge. If we combine that with Newcastle’s recent blank against the Wolves, it might be safe to say that any edge they might have had is theoretically neutralized (for now). As such, expect this to end up in a competitive scrap that might, based on a slight edge alone, just so happen to conclude in the visitors’ favor. Otherwise, this could also end in a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw or 1-2 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Draw / Aston Villa)

• Odds Range: 1.56-1.92

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.60

⚽ Arsenal vs Man United
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 25 January; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Arsenal’s recent draws have people underestimating them. That’s left us with some nice odds here.

• CXSports says: There are two ways to read this match. The first is to look at Arsenal’s recent slip-ups resulting in two back-to-back draws, including one against Nottingham Forest! Or, we can read that as a temporary bump in the road and look at season performance more generally. If we chose the latter approach, then Arsenal are clearly superior, mainly due to their stonewall defense, which, even through their team’s recent rough patch, still managed to keep things locked down. And if we want to go with the first approach and give some weight to Arsenal’s recent performance, then we can’t ignore the 3 draws United have had in their last 5 matches, which still leaves Arsenal in front.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.44-1.64

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.56-1.77

Make your sportsbook work for you!

Gary Neville was one of England’s most prolific players, earning more caps than most.

You don’t achieve that by pure luck alone. Here, Neville gives an idea of what it takes:

Moral of the story?

If you just keep plugging away, refusing to give up, then often, you’ll manage to achieve whatever it is you set out to achieve.

Want to learn more about Gary Neville?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Gary Neville Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [B] — Gary Neville reached 85 caps for England in his career, an achievement only a small handful of players can claim to have reached. Discover more trivia like this with the Gary Neville Trivia Quiz.