Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s no secret by now that “normal” football is becoming more and more like its “American” sibling (the NFL). At least, tactically.

But this week, the Premier League’s “going American” story just took a much darker turn.

Over the weekend, a football agent was arrested after threatening a Premier League footballer with a gun.

How very… American.

Anyway, enough of the bad news — here’s what’s ahead in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This weekend’s best Premier League plays. 🦵⚽

• A little half-time entertainment, American style. 🏈🏈

• Some wisdom about the value in doing unpleasant things. 😅🔥

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⚽ Tottenham vs Man Utd
🏟 English Premier League
Saturday 08 Nov; 13:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: We wouldn’t back either side in this match. But both sides — sure, why not!? Especially when there’s still some decent double chance odds on offer.

• CXSports says: Tottenham come into this otherwise even match with a slight edge owing to the fact they’re taking this one on at home. But how big that edge really is is up for debate, and if United can do anything to gain an edge in possession or upset Tottenham’s set-play rhythm, the balance could tilt very quickly. This is even more so the case given Manchester’s recent momentum — they’re clearly improving, and they have shown they can break through when needed, although this one might just be a little too tough of an ask. Still, anything’s possible in this one, thus we’re calling this one too close to call.

• Score prediction: 2-1 or 1-2 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Tottenham / Man Utd)

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.32

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.48-1.66

⚽ Everton vs Fulham
🏟 English Premier League
Saturday 08 Nov; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you can accept that it’s far from a sure thing, the odds on Everton represent some decent value.

• CXSports says: Everton’s performance this season hasn’t been anything worth getting excited over, and their home stats aren’t that much better than the rest of their games, aside from the fact that they concede slightly less (about 1 goal per game at home versus about 1.33 across all games). Of course, Fulham hasn’t been much better either, unless you count being more lively as being better (more goals scored, but also more conceded — result, similar goal difference). As such, we should expect to see Everton hold a slight edge here — not because they’re a vastly superior team, but because their ability to limit their losses (somewhat) at home should hold off the worst of Fulham’s “more potent” attack, while Fulham's leaky defense should allow Everton to edge ahead on the scoreboard. Not by much, thought.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Everton

Option #1

• Bet: Everton Victory

• Odds Range: 1.96-2.23

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.72-1.96

⚽ Sunderland vs Arsenal
🏟 English Premier League
Saturday 08 Nov; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Given Arsenal’s near-invincible status right now, these odds are insanely good value.

• CXSports says: To their credit, for a newly-promoted team, Sunderland’s had a remarkably good run in the EPL so far this season — 5W, 2D, and just 2L for a comfortable mid-table position is certainly commendable. But let’s be honest here — Arsenal’s had a good run in the EPL this season regardless of their status. So good, in fact, that they’re currently looking unstoppable (straight victories in their last five). That alone should be enough to tell us what the probably outcome of this game is, short of what the final score will be. But for that, just look at Arsenal’s defensive stats (only 3 conceded all season) versus Sunderland’s offensive stats (just 11 scored).

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Arsenal

Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.42

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.48-1.75

⚽ Chelsea vs Wolves
🏟 English Premier League
Saturday 08 Nov; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Another game with some great value odds. After all, do you honestly think Chelsea can’t handle the Wolves in their sorry state right now?

• CXSports says: Let’s be frank for a moment. As things stand right now, you can more or less write off the Wolves in just about any EPL fixture that comes their way. With zero victories all season and four times more losses than draws, to call the Wolves hopeless is putting things nicely. But just in case there was any doubt, Chelsea holds a clear historical edge in this matchup, particularly when playing at home. In other words, Chelsea takes this one with ease.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Chelsea

Option #1

• Bet: Chelsea Victory

• Odds Range: 1.22-1.36

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.66

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

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We’ve seen a lot this year about how football is becoming more and more like the NFL.

Over reliance on set pieces. Teams running more and more pre-determined routines. More deliberate blocking.

This is all classic NFL tactics.

So since the NFL is becoming more and more important in football, we thought we all might as well learn a little more about the NFL. Starting with it’s most famous export — the Super Bowl.

Let’s find out how much you know about the Super Bowl with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: As of 2023, which team holds the record for the most points scored in a single Super Bowl?

• A: San Francisco 49ers

• B: Dallas Cowboys

• C: Chicago Bears

• D: New England Patriots

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
🏟 English Premier League
Sunday 09 Nov; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Best value odds all week. Yes, the ol’ risk-reward ratio here does tilt a little more ‘risk’ than the last two picks, but the rewards here far outweigh those limited risks.

• CXSports says: There’s one stat here that’s more telling than just about anything else — Aston Villa have not lost a single one of their last five games against Bournemouth (3W, 2D). Now, we know what you’re thinking — Bournemouth are doing “better” in the League right now (they’re in 4th while Villa’s in 11th). But look at the momentum each team has right now. In their last five EPL matches, Bournemouth has only taken 2 victories, while Villa has taken 4. Now, that doesn’t mean Villa will have this one easy. But it does mean they’ve got a very good chance of coming out on top in this one.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 1.90-2.20

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.70

⚽ Brentford vs Newcastle
🏟 English Premier League
Sunday 09 Nov; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you’re tired of moneyline plays, then this is the one for you — no need to back a side.

• CXSports says: The head-to-head history between these two might suggest that Newcastle holds an edge in this game. But, given their recent performances across the league, it’s hard to tell Newcastle apart from Brentford this season. Sure, there are some minor differences — but all of those differences (e.g., goals scored vs conceded) all end up at the same net result. That makes this one a little too close for us to call. But here’s something that’s a little more clear-cut — the head-to-head history between these two suggests there’s a 75% chance of this one going over 2.5 goals, and exactly the same chance of this one ending with both teams scoring.

• Score prediction: 2-1 or 1-2 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.50-1.68

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.65-1.87

⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
🏟 English Premier League
Sunday 09 Nov; 15:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Each outcome in this game (W/L/D) has about a 1-in-3 chance. Only one of those outcomes is offering something better than 1:3 odds (a draw). That makes this one tempting, especially given how even this game could be.

• CXSports says: Both of these sides have had a poor start to the season (Leeds less so), and neither’s showing any real sign of improvement (Leeds has arguably gotten slightly worse). That’s left both either hanging out in the relegation zone (Forest), or uncomfortably close to it (Leeds). Sadly, that hasn’t left us with the highest of hopes for either side, even in this fixture. Yes, Leeds do hold the edge based on numbers alone, but being on the road might just offset that advantage enough for Wolves to establish themselves on a level footing. In short, don’t be surprised if this ends in a lackluster draw.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.08-3.50

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.62-1.83

⚽ Man City vs Liverpool
🏟 English Premier League
Sunday 09 Nov; 17:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you’re willing to “just trust the numbers”, then this is fantastic value. Otherwise, this one could be a pass.

• CXSports says: We’re usually not afraid to make bold predictions, but this fixture’s got us slightly paralized. Or, more to the point, Liverpool’s got us paralized given how erratic their season’s been so far. But still, duty calls, and thus we must make a prediction. So here goes. Man City have been dangerously good this season, as evidenced by their league-topping goals scored tally and their massive +12 goal difference. Now throw in their home advantage as an added kicker, and it’s hard not to see how they don’t hold an edge over the (currently) erratic Liverpool squad.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.71-1.91

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.52

Make your sportsbook work for you!

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Since we’re on the topic of American Football this week, it’s probably the right time to drop one of the most famous quotes out there.

Here’s one formulation of that quote, courtesy of Jerry Rice — one of the greatest players to ever play for the San Francisco 49ers uniform.

This one shouldn’t need much explaining.

So instead, I’ll leave you with what is probably the most famous sports quote ever.

Just do it.

Want to learn more about Jerry Rice?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Jerry Rice Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [A] — The San Francisco 49ers hold the record for the most points scored in a single Super Bowl. Discover more trivia like this with the Super Bowl Trivia Quiz.