Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, Round 2 in the UEFA Champions League gets underway. And with it, we’ve got a bunch of matches with some very predictable outcomes. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s Champions League match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this week’s UCL action. ✅

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Today, we’ve got a huge lineup of matches coming up across Round 2 of the UEFA Champions League. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🇪🇺 Champions League (Round 2)

Tuesday 13 October

• 18:45 — Lens vs Sporting CP

• 18:45 — Sabah Baku vs Slavia Prague

• 21:00 — Arsenal vs Lille

• 21:00 — Atletico Madrid vs Man Utd

• 21:00 — Galatasaray vs Barcelona

• 21:00 — Inter Milan vs Club Brugge

• 21:00 — RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven

• 21:00 — Viking vs Bayern Munich

• 21:00 — Villarreal vs Napoli

Wednesday 14 October

• 18:45 — Feyenoord vs Como

• 18:45 — LASK Linz vs Liverpool

• 21:00 — Roma vs Real Madrid

• 21:00 — Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce

• 21:00 — Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

• 21:00 — Man City vs PSG

• 21:00 — Real Betis vs Porto

• 21:00 — Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens

• 21:00 — Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Arsenal vs Lille
🏟️ UEFA Champions League (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 13 October; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Arsenal hasn’t lost a match outright in their last 16 Champions League games (they were only beaten in a penalty shootout in last season’s final).

  • Lille looks like it’s off to a strong start this season, but that’s largely come against much weaker teams (bottom-half French sides).

  • Arsenal has taken 3 wins from its 3 home games this season.

• CXSports says: Lille looks like it’s off to a decent start this year. On paper, its league numbers look like Arsenal’s. Both are second in their league, both have a +5 goal difference, and Lille’s conceded just 4 goals in 6 league games. But that strong start on Lille’s part has mostly been the result of facing weaker, bottom-half-of-the-table competition in the French league (Angers, Toulouse, Troyes and Le Havre, who sit 12th, 14th, 16th and 18th). However, so far, they’re yet to do much damage to a half-decent team. Give them a tougher opponent — PSG, Nice and Real Betis, the three teams they’ve faced with any realy quality — and Lille falls apart, with 7 conceded in 3 games. And now, they’re about to play one of the best Europe has to offer.
  
  To put some perspective on the difference here, just jook at the first Champions League matchday this season. Arsenal won 1-0 away at Napoli, while Lille lost 2-3 at home to Real Betis. And looking back even further, Arsenal hasn’t lost a game outright in 16 straight Champions League matches (the one game they lost was only lost in a penalty shootout in last year’s final). Indeed, Arsenal became the first team to win all eight matches in the league phase last season. And their record at home is just as good. Particularly at home — three wins, 7 goals scored and 2 conceded this season.
  
  About the only weakness for Arsenal here is the injury list. Their first-choice centre-back is out, a winger is missing for weeks, and a forward and a defender faced late fitness tests before the weekend. They’ll were also somewhat unconvincing over the weekend — Leeds led in the second half before a substitute found the winner at 69 minutes. Still, even with that, it’s not like Lille’s without problems either, and they’ll find themselves short on players.
  
  As such, we’re calling this one as a clean Arsenal victory. Maybe even a clean sheet with a multiple goal margin.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Arsenal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Arsenal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.26

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.78

⚽ Galatasaray vs Barcelona
🏟️ UEFA Champions League (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 13 October; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Barcelona’s won all nine games its played this season by an average of more than three goals (39 scored, 8 conceded).

  • Galatasaray’s defence is atrocious, even at home in Turkey — they’ve conceded 11 goals in seven games.

  • Barcelona’s won every head-to-head they’ve played at Galatasaray since 2002.

• CXSports says: At first glance, Galatasaray looks decent — they’re sitting on top in Turkey with 16 goals scored against 11 conceded from seven games. However, while that leaves them with a respectable goal difference, that defensive number already looks questionable — it works out to an average of 1.57 goals conceded. Meanwhile, their league’s average is 1.46 conceded. Or, said another way, their offense is making up for a sub-par defence. And, as you might expect, that all starts to get a little ugly once they make a step up in class of opponents. Indeed, they’ve already lost 3-1 at Sporting in the Champions League and 4-0 at Trabzonspor (who has the best defence in Turkey). And now that leaky back line has to face off against Barcelona’s attack — an attack that’s averaging 4.25 goals scored per game in an arguably stronger league.
  
  But it only gets worse for Galatasaray from here. Barcelona, so far, doesn’t seem to suffer when it travels — they’ve won all four of their away games in La Liga this season while scoring 17 and only conceding 3. And they don’t seem particularly phased by their missing captain, either (who picked up a hamstring problem). In their first game without him, a summer signing scored inside two minutes on the way to a comfortable 3-0 win over Getafe. So with that sort of depth, and the ability to travel well, we don’t really see what Galatasaray’s back line will be able to offer up in response.
  
  Of course, Galatasaray can at least lay claim to having a decent offense. Or, at least, it’s decent enough to make up for their poor defense. However, while that means they probably will manage to score against Barcelona, we don’t see how a team that’s carrying a lower goals scored average (in a weaker league, mind you) beats the team with the higher goal average while also having the better defense.
  
  So, how does this play out? Well, Galatasaray will probably score… once. Meanwhile, Barcelona will score multiple times and win this with ease.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Barcelona

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Barcelona Victory

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.30

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.50

⚽ Viking vs Bayern Munich
🏟️ UEFA Champions League (Round 2)
📅 Tuesday 13 October; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Viking’s already been beaten comfortably by a weaker German team this season (they lost 3-1 at Stuttgart in their opening Champions League game).

  • Bayern has never lost to a Norwegian club — they’re unbeaten in eight meetings with Norwegian teams before this season, with six wins and two draws. (And they beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0 last month.)

  • In the Bundesliga, Bayern’s scored 16 goals in 5 league games at a rate of 3.2 per game.

• CXSports says: Let’s cut straight to the chase. Bayern will win this. And they will win it clearly. Why? Because while Viking’s an alright team in their domestic league (they’re on top in Norway with 53 points from 22 games and a goals scored average of 2.55 a game in a league where the average side manages 1.58), that domestic performance means basically nothing when put on the European stage. Particularly against the finest that Germany’s got to offer. To put a little perspective on what’s instore for us in this game, Bodo/Glimt (the second-best team in Norway and three points behind Viking) played Munich last month. And lost 5-0. Meanwhile, Stuttgart, a rather ‘ordinary’ mid-table German side, shot three goals past Viking last month. And Viking only managed one in response. And Bayern are a considerable step up over Stuttgart, while we’re not so sure Viking’s much of a step up from Bodo/Glimt.
  
  And it’s not like Bayern’s prowess is some domestic-only anomaly, either. In last season’s Champions League, they scored 43 goals in 14 Champions League games. And they’ve kept that pace going since resuming play this autumn: 20 goals in their last six matches, with half of those also delivering a clean sheet.
  
  Of course, not all is lost for Viking. Or, to be more precise, while this match might be lost, they might be able to lose it with some dignity. After all, they are currently on a perfect run at home (10 wins from 10, 38 goals scored). And we can’t ignore the fact that their artificial pitch will feel a little strange to the visitors. So who knows — maybe there’s a chance here to use their home advantage (and weird pitch) to at least start to level the playing field. Just don’t expect it to become so level that Bayern’s vastly superior quality doesn’t ultimately shine through.
  
  As such, we see this one playing out heavily in Bayern’s favor, albeit with some opportunity for the home side to engage in some potentially successful attacking play to get a goal of its own.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for Bayern Munich

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bayern Munich Victory

• Odds Range: 1.03-1.12

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.54-1.77

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to the upcoming rounds in both the Europa League and the Europa Conference League, which both get underway this Thursday.

Until then, enjoy the football.