Good Morning ☀️,
It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?
We’ve got a great weekend ahead of us with some very interesting matches coming up tomorrow in particular. And yes, by “interesting” we mean “heavily one sided and highly likely to end in a highly predictable outcome.” So let’s get straight into it.
What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:
EPL + La Liga + Ligue 1 + Bundesliga match schedules for the weekend. 🗓️
Our top three sure picks for this weekend. ✅
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THIS WEEKEND’S MATCH SCHEDULE [EPL + LA LIGA + LIGUE 1 + BUNDESLIGA]
This week, we’ve got a full roster of matches across Europe’s top leagues. Here’s what’s coming up across the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Ligue 1. (Note: all dates and times are in CET)
🏴 Premier League
Friday 06 November
21:00 — Everton vs Coventry City
Saturday 07 November
13:30 — Leeds vs Tottenham
16:00 — Arsenal vs Hull City
16:00 — Fulham vs Newcastle
18:30 — Nottingham Forest vs Man City
Sunday 08 November
15:00 — Brighton vs Brentford
15:00 — Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
15:00 — Ipswich vs Bournemouth
15:00 — Sunderland vs Chelsea
17:30 — Man Utd vs Aston Villa
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
Friday 06 November
20:45 — Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Saturday 07 November
19:00 — Auxerre vs Paris FC
21:05 — PSG vs Troyes
Sunday 08 November
15:00 — Rennes vs Lille
17:15 — Angers vs Nice
17:15 — Brest vs Lyon
17:15 — Le Havre vs Lorient
17:15 — Le Mans vs Monaco
20:45 — Lens vs Marseille
🇪🇸 La Liga
Friday 06 November
21:00 — Sevilla vs Alaves
Saturday 07 November
14:00 — Malaga vs Racing Santander
16:15 — Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
18:30 — Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao
21:00 — Valencia vs Real Madrid
Sunday 08 November
14:00 — Elche vs Real Betis
16:15 — Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
18:30 — Celta Vigo vs Levante
18:30 — Villarreal vs Getafe
21:00 — Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
🇩🇪 Bundesliga
Friday 06 November
20:30 — Hamburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Saturday 07 November
15:30 — Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
15:30 — RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
15:30 — Mainz vs Bayern Munich
15:30 — SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
18:30 — Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Sunday 08 November
15:30 — FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen
17:30 — Freiburg vs Union Berlin
19:30 — Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04
Want to get the best odds on these matches?
TODAY’S TOP PICKS
⚽ Arsenal vs Hull City
🏟️ Premier League
📅 Saturday 07 November; 16:00 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Arsenal’s conceded just 5 goals in its 9 games this season — the lowest tally in the division (next best is 7).
Arsenal’s won 4 of 4 games at home with an aggregate scoreline of 9-2.
Hull’s defence has conceded 10 goals in its last 6 games with no clean sheet and no win in any of those games.
CXSports says: While it might be a slight overstatement, it’s not far from the truth — no one in the Premier League can score against them. In 9 games this season, they’ve got 6 clean sheets and only conceded five in total. And while that five conceded in its remaining 3 games doesn’t make for a great per-game concession average, all but two of the five conceded came in a single game against Brighton, who has the strongest offense in the league by far with 24 goals scored in 9 games.
As for Hull, they’re sitting at the opposite end of the league to Brighton. While they’re not the worst attack out there, they’re clearly in the bottom half with just 11 goals scored all season. And now they have to go and face an impenetrable Arsenal defense who’ll be playing at home (a venue where they’re four from four) which only makes matters worse Hull, who’ve only won a single away game this season, and that was at Coventry, who’s currently sitting just 2 points outside of the relegation zone in 16th place.
As for the other side of the game — can Hull stop Arsenal from scoring — we’re confident they can keep the total within reason, but we doubt they’ll be able to hold this to a goalless draw. While they’re not great in offense, Hull’s defense isn’t half bad. In fact, they’re one of just two teams in the bottom ten that’s managed to maintain a positive goal average (+1). And while that might seem to be worth something — Arsenal’s attack isn’t exactly spectacular with just 14 goals all season — Arsenal perform much better at home. In their four home games so far, Arsenal’s scored 9 of its 14 goals for the season, thus bumping its full-season goal average up from 1.56 across all games all the way to 2.25 at home.
As such, we see this one ending somewhat predictably. Arsenal will likely come within reaching distance of its home scoring average while Hull likely walks away with nothing.Score prediction: 2-0 for Arsenal
Bet Option #1
Bet: Arsenal Victory
Odds Range: 1.09-1.20
Bet Option #2
Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)
Odds Range: 1.40-1.62
⚽ Valencia vs Real Madrid
🏟️ La Liga
📅 Saturday 07 November; 21:00 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
Valencia’s only scored 3 goals in its six home games this season and they failed to score in four of those six while winning none.
Madrid scores every time they play and average 2.55 goals scored per game. On the road that average drops, but remains more than respectable at 1.83 per game.
Madrid are on a seven game winning streak across all competitions, which includes a win at Barcelona (Barcelona’s only La Liga defeat this season).
CXSports says: Real Madrid win this and Valencia barely stands a chance of even getting on the scoreboard. And the reason is simple — Valencia has barely scored at home all season (just 3 goals in six home games) while Madrid scores freely wherever it plays, including on the road (1.83 goals scored per road game on average). And Valencia’s new manager doesn’t seem to have done much to change the inputs on Valencia’s side of that equation — in the two home games since he took over, Valencia’s only taken one point and a single goal.
Of course, Valencia’s inability to score wouldn’t mean much if Madrid’s defense was weak. However, Madrid’s defense is almost as good as their attack — they concede just 1.17 goals per away game, which is about a third lower than the broader league average of 1.71 the average away side concedes. And speaking of defense, what does Valencia’s defense probably isn’t going to be able to stop Madrid from scoring. Their goals conceded average currently sits at 1.55 a game, which is more or less makes them a perfectly average side in La Liga.
As for current form, it also points to more or less the same thing. Madrid’s on a seven game winning streak across all competitions (4 straight victories in La Liga) where they’ve posted an aggregate score of 20-8. Meanwhile, Valencia’s 2nd last on the table with just a single victory in its last five games, with 2 draws and 2 losses making up the balance.
So this one’s simple — Madrid win this, and probably with a clean sheet. Although, we’re not confident they’ll do it with a huge margin — Valencia does have an “average” defense after all. And, chances are, they’re going to know they have no chance coming into this game, so will likely clamp down a little harder in defense to save face.Score prediction: 0-2 for Real Madrid
Bet Option #1
Bet: Real Madrid Victory
Odds Range: 1.19-1.33
Bet Option #2
Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)
Odds Range: 1.83-2.00
⚽ PSG vs Troyes
🏟️ Ligue 1
📅 Saturday 07 November; 21:05 (CET)
Top 3 Stats:
PSG scores at 1.5x the league average with 21 goals in 9 games this season (2.33 vs a league average of 1.52). They’ve also scored in all 9.
Troyes has just 7 goals in 9 games this season (0.78 a game) and are in a tie for the lowest tally in the division. They’ve also failed to score in 5 of their 9.
PSG have not lost to Troyes in 10 head-to-heads since 2012 — they’ve got 9 wins, a draw, and an aggregate scoreline of 33-8.
CXSports says: The balance of this one’s simple. PSG has scored 21 goals in nine games this season at an average rate of 2.33 a game. That gives them the highest tally in the league, and a goal average that’s a little over 1.5x the broader league average of 1.52/ Troyes, on the other hand, has scored just 7 in 9 games, giving them a goal average of 0.78, which is about half the broader league average. What’s more, when facing stronger teams, their average drops to 0 — they’ve failed to score in five of nine games.
And things look even worse for Troyes the more we look. To start with, there’s form — in their last five games, they’ve only managed a single victory while the other four resulted in 3 losses and a single draw. Meanwhile, PSG’s done nothing but win in its last 5 games in League 1.
Then, we’ve got the head-to-head history. Troyes simply can’t win (and can’t even really draw) against PSG. In 10 head-to-head games dating back to 2012, PSG’s got 9 victories with the other game ending in a draw. And, across those games, PSG outshot Troyes massively, with the aggregate scoreline from those games sitting at 33-8 — 3.33 goals a game for PSG vs just 0.8 for Troyes.
As such, with Troyes unable to score, PSG scoring freely, a head-to-head history heavily favoring PSG, and current form that says the same thing, we’re calling this one in PSG’s favor with high confidence.Score prediction: 3-0 for PSG
Bet Option #1
Bet: PSG Victory
Odds Range: 1.03-1.15
Bet Option #2
Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)
Odds Range: 1.56-1.83
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WHAT’S COMING UP
That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back next week with plenty more action, including the upcoming round 5 in the UEFA Nations League.
Until then, enjoy the football.
