This week’s Champions League match schedule. 🗓️

Our top three picks from this week’s UCL action. ✅

18:45 — Galatasaray vs Stuttgart

18:45 — Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

21:00 — Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich

21:00 — Barcelona vs Aston Villa

21:00 — Bodo/Glimt vs Lille

21:00 — Feyenoord vs Inter Milan

21:00 — LASK Linz vs Slovan Bratislava

21:00 — Man Utd vs Roma

21:00 — Villarreal vs PSG

18:45 — AEK Athens vs Real Madrid

18:45 — Fenerbahce vs Liverpool

21:00 — Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

21:00 — RB Leipzig vs Man City

21:00 — Lens vs Como

21:00 — Porto vs Napoli

21:00 — PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge

21:00 — Slavia Prague vs Arsenal

21:00 — Viking vs Sabah Baku

Top 3 Stats:

CXSports says: To put it mildly, Barcelona’s attack is impressive. They’re averaging a little over four goals a game, made up of 57 goals in 14 games this season across both La Liga and the Champions League. And that’s coming against league averages of 1.51 and 2.05, respectively. And at home, which they are for this game, their average ticks slightly higher again, with 29 goals scored in 7 games (4.14 per game).

So, can Villa keep pace with that? Probably not. While their Champions League average might suggest that they can since they’ve scored 12 goals in three games, those numbers probably won’t transfer into this game. For starters, six of those goals came in a single game against a side that now sits 31st of 36. Meanwhile, the other 6 goals came against similarly weak opponents. If we instead look at Villa’s Premier League performance, which is probably a little closer to the level of competition they’ll face at Barcelona, their numbers plummet to 1.11 goals scored per game. Meanwhile, they conceded 1.44 goals a game in the process of scoring those goals.

Unfortunately for Villa, the same caveat about Champions League opponents doesn’t apply to Barcelona. Their three matches this season included the top seed (PSG) who now leads the table, and their other two opponents (Feynoord and Galatasaray) are both ranked higher than anyone Villa’s played.

Of course, that’s not to say that Barcelona is perfect (even though they probably will win). They have conceded in all three Champions League games at a rate that would look bad if it weren’t for the sheer number of goals they score (six goals in three games). So there’s a chance Villa will get a goal out of this game. Maybe even two. But unless they can somehow figure out a way to shut Barcelona’s offense out, it will probably be for nothing by the time the 90-or-so-minute mark comes around.

Score prediction: 3-1 for Barcelona

Bet: Barcelona Victory

Odds Range: 1.15-1.27

Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

Odds Range: 1.33-1.50

Top 3 Stats:

CXSports says: After three Champions League games, Real Madrid’s looking good. They’re sitting 4th on the table after winning all of their games, they’ve scored 10 goals, and have only conceded 5 in the process. AEK, on the other hand, has lost 2 of its three and is currently 29th on the table. And, they’ve only scored 3 goals while giving up 8. What’s more, their only positive result was 1-0 over LASK — a 24th-placed side. And no, Real Madrid didn’t get its results against weaker competition. In fact, they did it against tougher opposition — their three opponents average 95 UEFA ranking points, while AEK’s three average just 68.

With that said, the Champions League is only 3 games deep, so it is a rather small sample. However, broader form follows the same basic pattern. Over the last month, Real Madrid has won six in a row across all competitions while scoring 18 and conceding 6. And that run included an away at Barcelona and an away at Roma. Meanwhile, AEK’s lost four of its last five, and the one win was 5-0 over Panetolikos. And if you don’t know who Panetolikos is, it’s probably because it’s the 10th-ranked team in a sub-standard (by European standards) 14-team league. And speaking of that league, don’t think AEK’s 21 goals scored against 5 conceded in 8 games means anything here. Greece sits outside the top ten of UEFA’s national rankings, which is a large step down from the sort of competition Madrid faces on a weekly basis.

So how does this one play out? Well, Real Madrid does have a habit of conceding (they’ve done so in all three Champions League games). And AEK has scored exactly one in each of their three games. So maybe AEK gets a goal here. Unfortunately for the Greeks, Real Madrid’s likely going to walk away with at least three.

Score prediction: 1-3 for Real Madrid

Bet: Real Madrid Victory

Odds Range: 1.16-1.30

Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

Odds Range: 1.22-1.33

Top 3 Stats:

CXSports says: Slavia Prague simply do not win at the Champions League level. In fact, their last victory in the competition came way back in September 2007 — nineteen years ago. Since then, they’re winless in 22 matches. And this season they only have 1 point from 3 games from a 2-2 draw at Fenerbahce (who’s now 32nd of 36). And as for Arsenal, they’re undefeated in the Champions League with 2 wins and a draw so far this season.

And things only get more damning for Slavia Prague the more you dig into the numbers. Particularly Arsenal’s defensive numbers — in 3 Champions League games this season they’ve only conceded 2 goals (0.67 a game against 2.08 for the average team in the competition). And in 9 Premier League games, they’ve only conceded 5 (fewer than any other club in the Premier League, and they’re equal best in the Champions League with Stuttgart). Meanwhile, Slavia scores at just 1.33 a game in this competition and have scored only once in its last five meetings with Arsenal. Or, to put this paragraph into a single, short phrase — Slavia Prague basically has no hope of scoring a goal in this game.

As for whether Arsenal will score — yes, they will. Slavia concedes 2.33 a game in Europe and have kept no clean sheets. And Arsenal’s last two visits to Prague both ended with them posting a large goal tally — 4-0 and 3-0. Of course, we might not see the margin get quite so bit this time around — Arsenal’s coming into this game just three days after a match at Liverpool, without their right-winger, nor their first-choice centre-back (both injured).

As such, we’re tipping this to finish cleanly in Arsenal’s favor, and probably without any goals from Slavia Prague. We’re just not pinning our hopes on this one blowing out to a 4-goal margin.

Score prediction: 0-2 for Arsenal

Bet: Arsenal Victory

Odds Range: 1.20-1.34

Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

Odds Range: 1.62-1.91