Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, one coach’s bold claim about his team’s treatment at the World Cup sent us down one of our darkest rabbit holes yet. From clown shows to countries disappearing right off the map, this one’s got everything. But more on that later.

First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• Is the World Cup’s biggest joke also its biggest tragedy? 🤡

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇪🇸 Spain vs Austria 🇦🇹

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 15:00 ET

• Venue: Los Angeles Stadium

🇵🇹 Portugal vs Croatia 🇭🇷

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 19:00 ET

• Venue: Toronto Stadium

🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Algeria 🇩🇿

• Stage: Round of 32

• Time: 23:00 ET

• Venue: BC Place Vancouver

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

Here’s a not-so-fun coincidence we noticed in the World Cup.

By now, we all know the Iran story far too well. And, to give credit where credit is due, when their head coach, Amir Ghalenoei, claimed they were “the most oppressed team in the whole World Cup,” the accusation wasn’t without merit.

But here’s the coincidence we couldn’t help but notice — the literal most-oppressed team in the World Cup was playing last night. At least, they’re probably the most oppressed team on a historical basis.

And yes, we’re absolutely talking about DR Congo. Formerly known as Zaire.

The story goes a little like this.

The year was 1974. And the first sign that things were about to take a turn was the players finding out mid-tournament that officials in their own government delegation had run off with the entire pot of money that was meant to pay their wages.

Naturally, the players responded to this the way many professionals would. They said “fine, we’re not playing.” And that’s when dictator Mobutu Sese Seko got involved and forced them to keep playing.

After they lost 9-0 to Yugoslavia, Mobutu sent his presidential guard straight to the team hotel. Why? To quote defender Mwepu Ilunga, it was "to threaten us. They closed the hotel to all journalists and said that if we lost 0-4 to Brazil, none of us would be able to return home."

And some versions of the story are even darker — that the threat wasn't just "you can't come home," it was, to quote a slightly more sombre version of the story, that “they would not be allowed to return home alive.”

Now, there’s a pretty good chance you all know the clip we’re about to share here. Everyone knows the clip. It’s the famous “Zaire are the clowns of football” clip where Ilunga randomly sprints out and boots the ball away before Brazil can take a free kick.

Here’s the clip:

Funnily enough (well, it’s not actually funny…), Ilunga and Zaire were no clowns. They knew the rules of football perfectly well. What most people missed at the time was why they were acting like “clowns” — they were running down the clock out of pure terror, trying not to concede the goal that might let Brazil win 0-4, which would get everyone shot.

And here's the kicker. While Iran, “the most oppressed team in the entire World Cup” went home free as heroes, Zaire went home to a cage. Nobody was allowed to leave the country. Their names went up at the port and the airport under the words "Forbidden to leave," which destroyed all the European transfer offers that had come in. Mobutu pulled all the money out of football. And the players just sank into poverty. The goalkeeper, a two-time Cup of Nations winner, died penniless in 1996. Another player died as a refugee in France; another ended up homeless. And, in 2012, there was finally a literal charity fundraiser just so the survivors could get a couple hundred bucks a month to live on.

And Zaire’s not the only one.

Go back a little further to 1966, for example, when FIFA decided all of Africa, Asia, and Australia had to fight over just a single spot.

Now sure, that might not target one nation in particular. But if forcing dozens of teams to fight for a literal scrap isn’t the very definition of oppressed, then we don’t know what is.

Still, at least that one had a happy ending after Ghana’s football chief sent a telegram (a literal telegram — we’re not talking about the app here!) calling the whole thing “pathetic and unsound”. Then the entire continent of Africa boycotted, and the whole thing became a bit of a “turning point” for better recognition.

And then there was that one time back in 1938 when Austria — who just so happens to be playing today — qualified for the World Cup. The only problem was, the Nazis were in power. You can probably guess the rest here — the Nazis annexed Austria and, just like that, they got wiped off the map (and thus, the World Cup bracket) overnight.

And then there’s that other time when the 1978 Argentina team basically had a 6-0 win over Peru handed to them by a military junta, all while mothers protested their disappeared kids outside the stadium.

In any case, we’re not telling Iran to stop complaining. They got done dirty, after all. But, if we’re going to truly talk about the “most oppressed team,” then it’s probably worth doing so with an eye to the past.

⚽ Spain vs Austria
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Thursday 02 July; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: A fitting fixture given today’s news story. Plus, some great odds.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Spain is currently #3 in the FIFA World Rankings, and finished the group stage with 2W/1D/0L, 5 goals scored, and 0 conceded.

  • Austria is currently #23 in the FIFA World Rankings, and finished the group stage with 1W/1D/1L, 6 goals scored, and 6 conceded.

  • The last time these two met, Spain won 5-1. However, that was back in 2009.

• CXSports says: This is another one of those games (if you were reading yesterday) where the possession gap tells half the story, even if it’s not quite as severe — Spain averaged 69.4% possession through the group stage while Austria averaged 48.2%. Or, translated into actual dynamics, Spain has a suffocating, short-pass recycling game; Austria’s built to live without the ball, press high when they lose it, and hurt teams on the transition.
  
  Now, at first glance, that might seem to suggest Austria has a chance here. But here’s the catch — Spain now has 430 consecutive minutes without conceding a World Cup goal. And it’s not like that was just a happy accident. De la Fuente’s back line is disciplined enough not to give runners the space they need.
  
  Austria, on the other hand, have conceded 23 shots from inside their own box in their last three games. That’s an average of nearly eight per match, which is more than enough for Spain to do something useful with. In fact, it probably doesn’t even take a team of Spain’s calibre to do something with that — Austria’s already let six goals slip through at this tournament (an average of 2 per game).
  
  With that said, it’s probably worth not dismissing Austria outright. They’re not a passive team, and they can manufacture genuine danger against better sides, as we saw with Argentina (who were admittedly the better side), and in the 3-3 draw vs Algeria.
  
  We also can’t help but pick up on the risk in Spain's playing style here. Particularly that one blemish in the group stage where they drew 0-0 against Cape Verde after they over-recycled possession without transitioning into danger zones. Austria could exploit exactly that “patient-but-passive” tendency.
  
  Still, in the overwhelming majority of cases, Spain’s clinical dismantling of just about any side that’s willing to let them have the ball does point to a team that won’t need to go searching for solutions to a backline conceding at Austria's rate. So even if Spain might take their time, they probably will break through the channels and win this convincingly enough.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Spain

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Spain Victory

• Odds Range: 1.25-1.36

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.68-1.86

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today.

Tomorrow, we’ll be back as we gear up for Australia vs Egypt, Argentina vs Cape Verde, and Colombia vs Ghana.

Until then, stay safe, enjoy the football, and spare a thought for those out there getting a rough deal.