Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, we’ve got a great batch of matches coming up from both the Europa Conference League and Europa League qualification rounds. But more on that later.

First, a quick reminder — there’s a bunch of action today in the Champions League, which we covered on Monday. So make sure you check out that edition if you missed it.

With that out of the way, let’s get down to business.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s complete EUROPA qualification match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this week’s Europa action. ✅

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This week, we’ve got a great series of matches coming up in the Europa League and Europa Conference League. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Europa League

30 Jul Thursday – Qualification Round 2

• 15:00 — Viktoria Plzen vs Tromso

• 18:00 — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Sheriff Tiraspol

• 19:00 — FC Midtjylland vs Besiktas

• 19:00 — Hradec Kralove vs Tromso

• 19:00 — Pafos vs HNK Hadjuk Split

• 19:45 — PAOK FC vs Dynamo Kiev

• 20:00 — CSKA vs Qarabag FK

• 20:30 — Anderlecht vs Hammarby IF

• 20:30 — Ferencvarosi TC vs Twente

• 21:00 — Benfica vs St Gallen

Europa Conference League

29 Jul Wednesday – Qualification Round 2

• 16:30 — Dukagjini FK vs Lugano

• 19:00 — Copenhagen vs MFC Zhytomyr

• 20:30 — Rapid Wien vs FC Santa Coloma

30 Jul Thursday – Qualification Round 2

• 15:00 — Hradec Kralove vs NK Varazdin

• 15:00 — Riga FC vs Kuopio PS

• 16:00 — Atletic Club Escaldes vs Vaduz

• 16:00 — FC Tobol vs FK Panevezys

• 18:00 — Baumit Jablonec vs NK Varazdin

• 18:00 — FC Noah vs FC Zimbru

• 18:00 — FK Auda vs FCSB

• 18:00 — Ilves vs Stjarnan FC

• 18:00 — Inter Turku vs Istanbul BB

• 18:00 — Nomme Kalju vs Shelbourne

• 18:00 — Pyunik Yerevan vs Debreceni VSC

• 18:00 — Zira IK vs Paide Linnameeskond

• 18:30 — Levadia Tallinn vs IFK Goteborg

• 19:00 — Brann vs Universitatea Cluj

• 19:00 — CS Petrocub vs FK Borac Banja Luka

• 19:00 — Dinamo Minsk vs FK Neftchi Baku

• 19:00 — FC Nordsjaelland vs GAIS Gothenburg

• 19:00 — FK Velez Mostar vs Dunajska Streda

• 19:00 — Gyori ETO vs Atert Bissen

• 19:00 — HB Torshavn vs Motherwell

• 19:00 — VMFD Zalgiris vs Dinamo Tbilisi

• 19:30 — Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca

• 19:30 — Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

• 19:30 — The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn

• 19:30 — Valletta vs Rakow Czestochowa

• 20:00 — Ajax vs Vojvodina

• 20:00 — FK Shkendija vs NK Bravo

• 20:00 — IF Vestri vs Rigas Futbola Skola

• 20:00 — KF Ballkani vs Bohemian

• 20:00 — Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

• 20:15 — FC Sion vs BATE Borisov

• 20:15 — UNA Strassen vs Partizan Belgrade

• 20:30 — Austria Wien vs FK Liepaja

• 20:30 — CFR Cluj vs Alashkert

• 20:30 — Gent vs LNZ Lebedyn

• 20:30 — GKS Katowice vs MSK Zilina

• 20:30 — HSK Zrinjski Mostar vs Valur

• 20:30 — Panathinaikos vs Paksi SE

• 20:45 — Coleraine vs HJK Helsinki

• 20:45 — Koper vs NSI Runavik

• 21:00 — Braga vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

• 21:00 — FK Dinamo Tirana vs NK Aluminij

• 21:00 — FK Sutjeska Niksic vs Maxline Vitebsk

• 21:00 — Hibernian vs Malisheva

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ FC Sion vs BATE Borisov
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 30 July; 20:15 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A classic qualifying-stage mismatch that leans far too heavily in one direction.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Sion’s averaged around 3.8 goals per game across their last six and scored 2+ in 11 straight. BATE’s only scored 9 league goals from 14 games (0.64 per game) this season.

  • Sinon hails from the Swiss Super League (UEFA #16), while BATE lives in the Belarusian Premier League (UEFA #50) making Sion's fourth-place finish much, much stronger than BATE's 15th-place, relegation-zone standing.

  • BATE has a habit of drawing games — eight of their last 12 matches across all competitions were draws, including both of their Conference League games this season (1-1, 0-0).

• CXSports says: BATE’s a club in free-fall. At home, they’re 15th of their own league and winless in 11. What’s more, they’ve only scored nine league goals this season and only managed to put one shot on target in the first round of this qualifying campaign.
  
  With all that said, BATE’s not a team that looses football matches willingly, and it’s made quite a habit of drawing, with eight draws in twelve, including two Conference League stalemates. As such, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll  be approaching this one with a simple plan: strangle the game, reach 90 minutes mark, and roll the dice from twelve yards. And the 1-1 first leg proves the plan works well enough to be dangerous.
  
  Of course, the other side here is FC Sinon — a Swiss club hailing from a much stronger league that’s scored around 3.8 goals a game across its last six, found the net at least twice in eleven consecutive matches, and hasn’t lost a single game in ten. And now they get the one thing they were missing in the first leg — a home crowd.
  
  And that home advantage will probably make all the difference here. The first leg was BATE’s dream scenario — a low-event grind on neutral turf. And even then Sion matched them. Replay those 90 minutes on Sion’s turf, and BATE’s survival tactic game gets harder to execute.
  
  As such, expect Sion’s sheer volume to eventually crack an otherwise stubborn BATE defence. And don’t expect much in response — BATE simply cannot score with any consistency if their season stats are anything to go by.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for FC Sion

Bet Option #1

• Bet: FC Sion Victory

• Odds Range: 1.02-1.15

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.42-1.60

⚽ Braga vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
🏟️ Europa Conference League
📅 Thursday 30 July; 21:00 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: Euro debutants play their first away game at this level against an experienced home side that already leads on aggregate.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Braga’s scored in 17 consecutive games.

  • Both clubs finished 4th domestically, but Braga did it in Portugal’s Primeira Liga, an association ranked nearly three times higher than Serbia’s UEFA #6 (73.167) vs #24 (25.750).

  • Zeleznicar are European debutants while Braga reached the Europa League semis last season.

• CXSports says: Let’s start with the task ahead of Zeleznicar. After the first leg in this round, they trail 1-0, which means they must win by two clear goals. What’s more, they have to do that in a stadium they’ve never visited in a competition they’d never played until last week. And, they will probably have to do that while keeping a clean sheet against a Braga side that’s scored in 17 consecutive matches, which means the single most probable event of the night is Braga scoring.
  
  Of course, that doesn’t mean Zeleznicar’s a total pushover. After all, they “only” lost 0-1 in the first leg. And they also managed to create a handful of late chances which were denied only by a string of Hornicek saves. So they are still a competent, organised side that could potentially break through if the stars align. Although, the problem is that their main strength — a 7-match home unbeaten run — doesn’t exist in this leg.
  
  There are also questions over how a first-timer at the European level handles a hostile European away leg while chasing a deficit. Meanwhile, Braga’s doing something that’s borderline routine for them — their continental identity is measured in semi-finals. So this is the kind of pressure they can easily manage (particularly with their lead from the first leg).
  
  As such, this one probably plays out with Braga scoring early-to-midway, then running down the clock with the professionalism of a side that plays knockout European football every year against much stronger opponents.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Braga

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Braga Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.22

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.35-1.59

⚽ Benfica vs St Gallen
🏟️ Europa League
📅 Thursday 30 July; 21:00 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: At the high end of the market, the odds on a draw here are fantastic value relative to the chances.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Benfica trail 2-1 on aggregate, meaning they have to win by two, or force extra time.

  • Benfica has scored 2+ goals in each of their last six home league games last season, and in 10 of their last 12 at home.

  • The first leg produced a combined 31 goal attempts, and St. Gallen were the more clinical, creative side despite being technically inferior.

• CXSports says: Benfica dropped the first leg 2-1 in Switzerland. And it wasn’t just a case of bad luck — St. Gallen were consistently more creative and more clinical across a match that produced a full 31 goal attempts as Benfica’s new-manager attempted to find its shape. Now, Benfica must win by two if they want a clean path through. And that makes the task ahead of St Gallen — a team arriving on a competitive high — much easier.
  
  With that said, Benfica’s scoring history at home is the good enough that they’re more than up to the task at hand. They’ve scored two or more in each of their last six home league games, and in 10 of their last 12. So a two-goal home win sits squarely inside their established range.
  
  As such, Benfica’s probably imagining that this one starts with them scoring early, the home advantage turning the screw, and class (plus fresh legs owing to their first-eleven being rested) delivering the two-goals they need.
  
  Of course, St. Gallen might have something to say about this, and with good reason. The genuine danger for Benfica is that St. Gallen has already proven they can score against this defence while keeping Benfica reasonably locked down. And here, they only need to keep this game to a tie to guarantee a path forward. Thus, St. Gallen may well shift its attention away from scoring to lock its defense down even further. And, if they do, then Benfica may well have a very tough time breaking through.
  
  With that said, the smart pick is probably to back Benfica — their home advantage is hard to ignore here. However, there’s also a reasonably good chance of St Gallen actually keeping this one to a draw. And so, we’re going to tip that — a draw — because the odds on offer (at the upper end of the market) for this outcome are too good relative to the chances to ignore.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 5.45-9.00

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Benfica / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.01-1.03

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. We’ll be back again later this week with a bit of a mixed bag covering everything from the English League Cup playoffs to the Brazilian Serie A.

Until then, enjoy the football.