Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, the Champions League finally kicks off. And with it, we’ve got a packed slate of round 1 games set to go down over then next few days. So let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s full UCL match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three UCL picks for the week. ✅

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This week we’ve got a full slate of Champions League matches coming up as round 1 kicks off. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Tuesday 08 September

• 18:45 — AEK Athens vs LASK Linz

• 18:45 — Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

• 21:00 — Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

• 21:00 — Lille vs Real Betis

• 21:00 — Porto vs Man City

• 21:00 — Real Madrid vs Inter Milan

Wednesday 09 September

• 18:45 — Barcelona vs Feyenoord

• 18:45 — Stuttgart vs Viking

• 21:00 — Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

• 21:00 — Napoli vs Arsenal

• 21:00 — PSG vs Slovan Bratislava

• 21:00 — Sporting CP vs Galatasaray

Thursday 10 September

• 18:45 — Fenerbahce vs Roma

• 18:45 — PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk

• 21:00 — Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt

• 21:00 — Como vs RB Leipzig

• 21:00 — Man Utd vs Sabah Baku

• 21:00 — Slavia Prague vs Lens

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Barcelona vs Feyenoord
🏟️ UEFA Champions League
📅 Wednesday 09 September; 18:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Barcelona’s last 5 matches all ended in victory with an aggregate score of 19-3; Feyenoord’s results are noticeably tamer with 3W/2D and an aggregate of 13-7.

  • No Dutch club has ever won away to Barcelona in European competition (Barcelona has 7W/3D from 10 fixtures with an average of 3.1 goals scored per game).

  • Feyenoord remain unbeaten in 8 straight away matches, although that run’s yet to be tested at the Champions League level with all of those results coming in friendlies or the Eredivisie.

• CXSports says: This one has a pretty clear direction. Barcelona’s scoring prolifically, barely conceding, and delivering results. Specifically, over its last 5, it has 5 victories, 19 goals scored, and just 3 conceded for a goal difference of +16. Meanwhile, Feyenoord’s last five delivered 3W/2D and an aggregate of 13-7 — an admittedly respectable set of results… so long as we don’t compare them with Barca’s. And if those results weren’t already telling us enough, a little history might be worth pulling in here — Barcelona has never lost a game to a home game to a Dutch club in European competition all while averaging 3.1 goals scored per game. So if Feyenoord’s going to have any luck here, then they’re going to have to pull out something special.
  
  So, does Feyenoord have that special something that might cause an upset here? Well, they are unbeaten in 8 straight away matches (5 of which were wins), which isn’t nothing. They’ve also scored in 10 consecutive games which, again, isn’t nothing. However, while none of this is “nothing”, it’s questionable whether any of it counts as “something” against Barcelona. For context, Feyenoord’s recent history is entirely contained withing the Eredivisie and a recent bunch of pre-season friendlies. So we should probably heavily discount the impact these signs of form will have once it’s time to put that form to the test against Barcelona. And let’s not forget that Feyenoord’s currently missing five key defenders, including two starting full-backs, which might leave them with some bigger problems to solve than simply scoring some goals.
  
  As such, we expect Barcelona dominate this one, even if Feyenoord manages to earn themselves a consolation goal along the way.

• Score prediction: 4-1 for Barcelona

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Barcelona Victory

• Odds Range: 1.04-1.12

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.10-1.21

⚽ PSG vs Slovan Bratislava
🏟️ UEFA Champions League
📅 Wednesday 09 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • PSG has 1W/2D/2L matches with an aggregate of 7-8; Slovan Bratislava has 3 wins and 2 losses with an aggregate of 13-6.

  • Slovan Bratislava lost every single Champions League league-phase match they played the last time they were here (2024-25).

  • These two clubs have met 14 years ago, with PSG winning 2-0 on aggregate across both legs.

• CXSports says: Let’s start with the elephant in the room here — PSG has only won one of their last five matches, all while conceding eight goals while only scoring seven in return. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the one victory in that run is also the oldest result, meaning their most recent form is heavily weighted towards draws and losses.
  
  With that said, that’s form’s not a total disaster. At least, not in this context. While Slovan Bratislava’s number over its last 5 are obviously better — 3W/2L with 13-6 on aggregate — PSG’s results have all come against high-level competition from the EU’s most prestigious top-flight leagues. Meanwhile, Slovan Bratislava’s results have all come against relative no-names. So while PSG’s far from being in the sort of form we’d usually expect from a back-to-back Champions League titles winner, the fundamental quality gap in this match will likely mitigate much of the ‘damage’ an apparent lack of form might inflict.
  
  Of course, given how fragile PSG’s looking, it’s probably worth at least paying Slovan Bratislava some respect. After all, they are here on merit after winning three straight qualifying/play-off rounds to reach this stage, most recently against Celje of Slovenia on a 3-2 aggregate in extra time. However, if we pull in a slightly more relevant data point — the last time they made the Champions League league phase — it does look like qualifying performance might not translate into UCL-proper performance. For reference, the last time they were here (2024-25) they didn’t win a single match.
  
  So where does that leave this one? Well, given PSG’s less-than-perfect results, we don’t expect this one to turn into the sort of ridiculously one-sided 5+ goal match these sorts of fixtures can sometimes become. However, with Slovan having a rather large class gap with PSG (and not in the good way), we’re still expecting PSG to take this one quite comfortably.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for PSG

Bet Option #1

• Bet: PSG Victory

• Odds Range: 1.02-1.07

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.25-1.59

⚽ Man United vs Sabah Baku
🏟️ UEFA Champions League
📅 Thursday 10 September; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Man United’s sqad is valued at around €744M vs Sabah’s €17M valuation.

  • This is the first-ever meeting between these two clubs, and Sabah’s first ever game in a Champions League league phase fixture.

  • United has five first-team players unavailable through injury, including two of the club’s defensive midfield options, which might hurt given their leaky form in recent games.

• CXSports says: Manchester United’s currently sitting in 11th in the Premier League with 4 points from 3 games and a goal difference of just +1, which doesn’t exactly scream “European giant” at first glance. And that only looks worse when you consider that they’ve conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches across all competitions while carrying a casualty list that includes their newest centre-back signing and both first-choice defensive midfielders. So, in theory at least, Sabah FK will likely be looking at that setup as being somewhat more favorable than a full-force United.
  
  Of course, the question is what a sub-par United actually produces in terms of overall quality. And if there’s one figure here that puts United’s “poor” performance into perspective, it’s probably squad value — €744M vs Sabah’s €17M valuation. That implies a rather large quality gap — one which probably needs more than a little rough around the edges performance to close.
  
  We also have to remember that face-value form doesn’t always translate into real form. So while Sabah’s form does look excellent right now (4W/1L with 14 scored and just 4 conceded across their last five matches), that apparent form was found in either the relatively weak Azerbaijan Premier League (which includes teams shipping 5, 7, and 9 goals already this season), or against the likes of Hapoel Beer-Sheva. So even granting the fact that United’s defense might be turning up in a sorry state relative to its usual self, that sorry state will probably still be at a much higher level than anything Sabah’s faced in recent games.
  
  As such, while this fixture might be shaping up to be a little less one-sided than the two clubs’ names here would usually suggest, the sheer gap in raw squad quality probably means that “a little less one-sided” probably still results in something that remains “heavily one sided”.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Manchester United

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Manchester United Victory

• Odds Range: 1.05-1.15

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.16-1.28

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today, but we’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to what’s happening in league football leading up to and over the weekend.

Until then, enjoy the football.