Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

It’s a new week. And with it comes another round of UEFA Champions League qualification games. So let’s get down to business.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s complete UCL qualification match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three UCL qualification game picks of the week. ✅

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This week, we’ve got 10 matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)

11 Aug Tuesday

• 17:00 — Kairat vs Levski

• 18:00 — Bodo/Glimt vs Royal Union Saint-Gilloise

• 18:00 — Sabah Baku vs AGF Aarhus

• 19:00 — Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb

• 19:30 — NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiacos

• 20:00 — Red Star Belgrade vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

• 20:15 — NK Celje vs Ararat Armenia

• 20:15 — Slovan Bratislava vs Mjallby

• 20:30 — Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce

• 21:00 — Lyon vs Sparta Prague

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)
📅 Tuesday 11 August; 19:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Dinamo lead 5-0 on aggregate — no side in Champions League qualifying history has ever overturned a five-goal first-leg deficit leaving Kauno with a daunting task and Dinamo with more breathing room than they need.

  • Kauno Zalgiris had 0 shots on target and 0 corners in the first leg.

  • Croatia’s HNL (UEFA coeff. ~25.9) sits 21st in Europe; Lithuania’s TOPLYGA (~7.75) sits 46th.

• CXSports says: The first leg of this fixture has already told us how this one’s probably going to play out — Dinamo Zagreb left the first leg with a 5-0 win. And with that win, they posted some impressive stats — 70% of the ball, 12 shots to the Lithuanians’ two, and allowed exactly zero shots on target and zero corners across the full ninety minutes. And while that was the away leg for Kauno, let’s be serious here — a team that can’t make a single effort on goal doesn’t suddenly find itself in a position to overwhelm the same opponent seven days later.
  
  And this wasn’t just the result of some fluke either. The underlying quality gap here more or less explains why the first leg was such a massive blowout (and, more importantly, why this one won’t change much). While Kauno Zalgiris are a genuinely good side by their domestic standards (they have the best attack and defence in the Lithuanian top flight) scoring 1.9 and conceding just 0.75 per game), those domestic standards carry a UEFA coefficient of around 7.75 — roughly a third of the Croatian’s ~25.9. And even given the higher standards in Croatia, Dinamo still won their domestic title scoring 2.65 goals a game in that much tougher environment, while Kauno’s inferior numbers were put together against opposition three tiers weaker in European terms. And that pretty much explains why they couldn’t so much as lay a finger on Dinamo over the first leg’s 90 minutes.
  
  With that said, this one could well be a lot more tame. First, this is the away leg for Dinamo. And second, since they’re sitting on a five-goal cushion, they do have every reason to rotate, protect legs, and treat this as a training exercise ahead of the play-off round. So Kauno might do somewhat better in this round, so don’t be surprised if they do manage to score. But don’t expect that to be enough to overcome the sheer quality gap here.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Dinamo Zagreb

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Dinamo Zagreb Victory

• Odds Range: 1.23-1.47

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.81

⚽ NK Celje vs Ararat Armenia
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)
📅 Tuesday 11 August; 20:15 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Ararat has a clear home-and-away split — they’re 2-0 up at home, but were beaten twice already in away legs (5-3 on aggregate).

  • Celje have scored and conceded eight goals in four matches this season — and both teams have scored in six straight Celje games. (In other words, this fixture’s statistically built for goals).

  • Slovenia has a UEFA coefficient 22.844 (26th) Armenia’s is 14.563 (34th). 

• CXSports says: If there’s one stat to pay attention to here, it’s this — Ararat have won zero away legs this summer they lost 3-2 at Riga and 2-1 at Shamrock Rovers), and have only survived by building home cushions in both. So chances are, if a team has consistently delivered at home only to crumble on the road, then that team is likely to do that again. Particularly given the fact that Celje is better than any opponent they’ve faced so far.
  
  To give a bit of history here, Celje managed to reach a European quarter-final last season while this is Ararat’s first-ever Q3. So based on pedigree alone, Celje are the stronger club. But that’s not the only measure by which Celje are the better side. Their domestic league is the stronger environment — Slovenia’s UEFA coefficient of 22.844 (26th in Europe) is well ahead of Armenia’s 14.563 (34th). And the Slovenian top flight ran at 3.09 goals per game last season versus Armenia’s 2.54, meaning Celje’s attacking output was banked against tougher defences.
  
  With that said, the potential trouble for Celje is that their defence is leaky. They’ve conceded eight in four games this season. So that does leave open the possibility for Ararat to get on the scoreboard here and really turn up the pressure. And if Ararat score’s first, the pressure could really mount for Celje — as it stands, they only need to win by two clear goals to guarantee a clear path through. But if that deficit blows out by another goal, we could see a further breakdown in an already leaky defense.
  
  With that said, Celje’s still more likely to win on the night (even if they leak in defence and don’t win on aggregate). The simple facts of the matter here are that they’re the superior side, and Ararat has a bad habit of losing in the away leg despite winning comfortably at home.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for NK Celje

Bet Option #1

• Bet: NK Celje Victory

• Odds Range: 1.36-1.50

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.55-1.78

⚽ Red Star Belgrade vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)
📅 Tuesday 11 August; 20:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • In the first leg, Hapoel held a 1-0 lead for 30+ minutes with just ten men.

  • While Red Star average 4.25 goals per game this season, they scored zero in the first leg of this fixture.

  • Both teams here come from relatively equal leagues — Israel’s 18th (31.625) while Serbia’s 22nd (25.500) on UEFA’s coefficient.

• CXSports says: Red Star Belgrade are the bigger club, the richer club, and the one with 173 Champions League appearances against opponents who’ve never once reached the group stage. And they arrive averaging a ridiculous 4.25 goals per game across their opening four fixtures. And despite every number on the surface screaming “comfortable win”, the one match these two teams have actually played went the other way — Beer Sheva went to a neutral field, absorbed everything, went a man down for the final half-hour after a 58th-minute red card, and still walked off 1-0 winners. So when a heavy favorite fails to break down ten men, its probably worth considering its implications.
  
  So now the question is simple — which version of Red Star are we going to see on Tuesday? Our answer is simple — Probably the better one. For starters, they’re playing at home in Belgrade, where the crowd is loud and the pitch is theirs. And if history is any indicator, favorites usually deliver when playing at home. And the fact Red Star only needs to win by two clean goals (or by one and then survive extra time) means the pressure isn’t particularly overwhelming. If anything, Beer Sheva will be feeling just as much (if not more) — they’ve now got something to protect, and they have to protect it against a hot favorite that’s playing at home. And that means the only real question left is how many times will Red Star score?
  
  Naturally, Hapoel is probably going to play this one ultra defensively. At least, they will so long as they retain the aggregate lead. They have, after all, already managed to hold Red Star off with this approach in the last 30 minutes of the first leg. So they’ll likely fancy their chances of doing this again. However, the moment Red Star scores (and let’s be honest here, they will almost certainly score), that approach is likely going to start breaking down. Deep down, they know they’re the inferior team here — Beer Sheva's strategy in the first leg, in the words of their own manager, was "on the edge of committing fouls".
  
  So the most likely outcome here is for Red Star to walk away with the victory here. And while it might not be by enough to guarantee a clean pass to the knockouts at the end of 90 minutes, they will probably deliver at least a 1-goal margin. And as far as we’re concerned, that’s enough for our purposes here.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Red Star

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Red Star Belgrade Victory

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.34

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.08-1.15

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for today. Later this week, we’ll be back as we take a look at what’s coming up in this week’s Europa League and Europa Conference League qualifications.

Until then, enjoy the football.

PS: The Europa games kick off tomorrow with three games scheduled — Iberia 1999 vs Larne FC (18:00) in the Europa League, and Apollon Limassol vs Brann (19:00) followed by CSKA 1948 vs Panathinaikos (19:30) in the Europa Conference League.