Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Well that was an interesting weekend given freshly-promoted Hull City put on a history-making performance against Man United. Definitely a team worth watching — but that’s for later in the week. For now, we’ve got plenty of other stuff to keep us entertained.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The full UCL qualifying knockouts match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three UCL qualification picks for this week. ✅

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Today, we’ve got a great series of Champions League qualification matches coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

Champions League Qualification Playoff Round

25 Aug Tuesday

• 18:45 — Sabah Baku vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

• 21:00 — Bodo/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen

• 21:00 — LASK Linz vs Celtic

26 Aug Wednesday

• 21:00 — AEK Athens vs Levski

• 21:00 — NK Celje vs Slovan Bratislava

• 21:00 — Lyon vs Fenerbahce

• 21:00 — Viking vs Dinamo Zagreb

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Sabah Baku vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications
📅 Tuesday 25 August; 18:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Sabah have average 3.2 goals per game in their last five, but only scored 1 in the first leg of this fixture.

  • Hapoel have scored in 15 straight matches which makes a clean sheet a tough ask for Sabah.

  • Sabah has a one goal deficit after the first leg, but will enjoy the home advantage here.

• CXSports says: Sabah has a deficit to make up for here as they come into this one trailing 2-1 after the first leg. So the Azerbaijani champions have a tough task ahead of them. Question is, are they up to it?
  
  Chances are, Sabah probably can pull it off now they’ve got the home advantage. And, looking at recent form, they’re also the sharper looking side with sixteen goals in their last five matches (3.2 a game) against Hapoel's far more modest tally of seven. And let’s not forget that they’re the Azerbaijani champions — and not by a small margin. They finished last season nine points clear of Qarabag (the same Qarabag that reached the Champions League knockout rounds). So there’s a pretty good chance that, a side that good chasing a single goal deficit on home turf, could be dangerous here. The only problem is (and it’s the same one they couldn't solve last week), for all that scoring, they only managed one goal against Hapoel and it came inside six minutes. After that, Hapoel took the ball (67% possession) and strangled the game to death. So there’s a chance Sabah might need to chase a clean sheet here (or a high goal tally) if they want to make this a clean path through qualification. But attempting to do that against a team that’s scored in fifteen consecutive matches could make that hard — they need to score, but they also need to not concede.
  
  Of course, for all of its consistency, Hapoel does look like the flatter team. While they’ve consistently scored across their games, they’ve only done so at a rate of 1.4 goals a game to Sabah's 3.2 over the same stretch. As such, we’re tipping a victory for Sabah. Not that it’s going to be comfortable (and it might even end in a draw).

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Sabah Baku

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Sabah Baku Victory

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.86

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.85

⚽ Bodo/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications
📅 Tuesday 25 August; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Bodo/Glimt has 33 wins in their last 44 European home matches.

  • Bodo/Glimt lead 3-1 on aggregate after taking the victory with a 2-goal margin in the first leg.

  • This is NEC's first-ever Champions League campaign; it is Bodo/Glimt's fifth, and they reached the last 16 last season.

• CXSports says: NEC Nijmegen are a club playing in the Champions League for the first time in their history. And to advance from here, they now have to travel to the Arctic Circle dragging a two goal deficit behind them after losing 3-1 in the first leg. And that puts Bodo/Glimt — a side that has won 33 of its last 44 European home matches on the artificial-turf at Aspmyra Stadion, where Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan were all beaten last season — at an unusually big advantage. And let’s not forget that Bodo/Glimt is a team scoring close to four goals a game at home while winning 71% of its matches over 2.5 goals.
  
  Of course, that’s not to say NEC will be completely overwhelmed here. While that’s still a possibility, they were, in some patches, the slightly better side during the first leg (not that that stopped them from losing by two). Given the opportunity, they can deliver a decent attacking performance. They do, after all, average around 2.5 goals per game, and have done their fair share of battering, including thrashing Willem II 4-1 in their last league game. And they’re also pretty good at creating chances — about 20 shots a game isn’t out of the question. So, on the right night, they can impress. The only question is, just how “right” must that night be in order for them to score three (which they need to do here) in 90 minutes without completely abandoning any notion of defense (which they’ll absolutely need against the Bodo/Glimt attack). That might be an ask too much for a much stronger side. However, NEC are first-timers here, and Bodo/Glimt only need only to be a reasonably calm version of themselves to get everything they need out of this match.
  
  As such, we expect Bodo/Glimt to take the victory here and extend the aggregate, although we suspect they’ll be playing a little too conservatively for this to turn into the sort of bloodbath that it could turn into if Bodo/Glimt unleash their full home-ground fury.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Bodo/Glimt

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bodo/Glimt Victory

• Odds Range: 1.36-1.57

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.29-1.47

⚽ AEK Athens vs Levski
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications
📅 Wednesday 26 August; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Levski’s kept a clean sheet in every home European game this summer.

  • Both teams are in hot domestic form — AEK scored four last time out; Levski scored six.

  • AEK's 0-0 was their first competitive match of the season — they’ll be hoping the rust will be gone by now.

• CXSports says: The first leg of this fixture was a scoreless draw, so both sides enter this one on reasonably equal footing (if we ignore the home advantage). Question is, can the venue or any other factor change the outcome this time around?
  
  We think the answer to that question is yes. For context, Levski Sofia were the more battle-hardened team, hardened by three knockout rounds since July. However, one thing to note about that momentum is that their positive results have been largely built on the back of clean sheets. However, that entire defensive identity is probably close to useless here if they want to advance (they’re currently tied 0-0 after the first leg) without dragging this into extra time. So that means, at some point, they’re going to have to come out and take a swing, which is exactly how they might become vulnerable.
  
  We also can’t ignore the fact that AEK was basically playing cold in the first leg — it was their first competitive fixture of the whole season. But fast-forward a week, and most of the cobwebs should be gone. Since then, they opened their Super League title defense by scoring four unanswered goals. So by now, they’re probably starting to hit their stride.
  
  Of course, one thing that does hang over AEK is its previous Super Cup loss to OFI Crete on penalties, which is proof that this AEK can be frustrated and dragged into the lottery of spot-kicks. And that’s likely to be Levski's exact game plan here (unless they decide to chance it for the clean ticket through this qualifier by opening things up during the first 90 minutes).
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, AEK are probably quite a bit sharper by now than they were in the first leg. And they have the superior individual quality up front, and a home advantage. And given the stalemated score and Levski's road record, we expect AEK to take this one. Probably not in a landslide (Levski defend too well for that), but still decisively enough.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for AEK

Bet Option #1

• Bet: AEK Victory

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.59

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.72

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to the ongoing Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification playoff round.

Until the, enjoy the football.