Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

With the weekend behind us and a new week ahead of us, it’s time to look at what’s coming up in the next round of UEFA Champions League qualifications.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s complete UCL qualification schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three UCL qualification picks for this week. ✅

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This week, we’ve got 11 UEFA Champions League qualification games coming up. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

04 Aug Tuesday – Qualification Round 3

• 18:00 — Ararat Armenia vs NK Celje

• 18:00 — Mjallby vs Slovan Bratislava

• 19:30 — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Red Star Belgrade

• 19:30 — Levski vs Kairat

• 20:00 — Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Zalgiris

• 20:00 — Olympiacos vs NEC Nijmegen

• 20:00 — Royal Union Saint-Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt

• 20:00 — Sparta Prague vs Lyon

• 20:00 — Sparta Prague vs Sturm Graz

05 Aug Wednesday – Qualification Round 3

• 18:30 — AGF Aarhus vs Sabah Baku

• 20:00 — Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Levski vs Kairat
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)
📅 Tuesday 04 August; 19:30 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A nice double chance with decent odds and a good degree of safety.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Levski have won all four of their home games this season while Kairat has lost their most recent away games.

  • Both teams topped their domestic league tables, Bulgaria’s league coefficient is 21.06 while Kazakhstan’s is 13.75.

  • Kairat travelled 22,388 km last CL campaign (a competition record) and this game sees them cross four time zones adding a real logistical tax that compounds in away legs.

• CXSports says: There’s a good chance that this game will ultimately boil down to two things: where the game’s being played, and who had the shorter trip to get there. Levski have won all four of their home matches this season. Kairat, on the other hand, has consistently struggled on the road. And once you add in the fact they’re travelling across 4 time zones for this game, it’s hard to see how the players won’t be affected by the venue, even if they somehow manage to overcome the psychological hurdle of a hostile away crowd.
  
  Something else worth paying attention to in this fixture is the relative league strength. Both sides sit at the top of their respective domestic tables, but Bulgaria’s UEFA country coefficient of 21.06 outranks Kazakhstan’s 13.75. That means Levski’s domestic performance is likely worth a bit more than Kairat's. With that said, Kairat’s domestic numbers do look somewhat better — notably their +25 goal difference — so we probably shouldn’t discount Kairat too much. Kairat also bring a fair amount of pedigree to the pitch — they’re a side that’s knocked out Celtic, and shared a pitch with Real Madrid and Inter last winter, so they definitely won’t be daunted by the task ahead of them here.
  
  As for where that leads us, we expect Levski to control territory and Kairat (fresh off the plane) to sit deep and aim for an away goal without necessarily holding onto any hopes of victory. And that tends to point towards a tight, low-margin home victory. However, for all of Kairat’s away woes, we also can’t ignore their defensive depth and pedigree — should their legs hold up into the final minutes, there’s also a good chance this one ends in a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Levski or 1-1 Draw

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Levski / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.08-1.16

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.27

⚽ Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Zalgiris
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)
📅 Tuesday 04 August; 20:00 (CEST)

• Why we’re watching: A huge mismatch in quality makes this one worth jumping on.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Dinamo hail from Croatia, which currently sits 20th in UEFA’s coefficient ranking; Lithuania (Kauno Zalgiris) is 46th of 55.

  • Dion Beljo alone scored 31 goals last season and is already on the scoresheet in qualifying. Kauno Zalgiris, on the other hand, is defensive (they only beat Klaksvík 1-0 on aggregate over two legs).

  • Kauno Zalgiris lead their own domestic league only on goal difference and have three rivals within a point. Even at home (in an inferior domestic setting) they are not dominant.

• CXSports says: While both sides here are champions in their respective domestic leagues, they are far from equals. Croatia (Dinamo Zagreb) sits 20th in UEFA’s coefficient ranking while Lithuania (Kauno Zalgiris) is 46th. And there’s good reason to believe this domestic gap will more or less shape this game. While Kauno Zalgiris does top their domestic league, they only do so narrowly on goal difference alone, level on 34 points with three clubs snapping at their heels. Dinamo, on the other hand, just took their 26th Croatian title on the back of a 23-match unbeaten run. And they did it in a much tougher league.
  
  Now add the firepower — Dion Beljo (Dinamo) alone scored 31 goals last season and is already showing the same sort of pace in this qualifying run. What’s more, he alone is responsible for a bigger output than the entire Kauno Zalgiris attack combined.
  
  With that said, the visitors aren’t here by mere accident. Kauno Zalgiris are unbeaten in 12 of their last 15 across all competitions and have made a habit of leveraging tight margins to progress. So far, they’ve eliminated both Drita and Klaksvík through tight defensive discipline. Meanwhile, Dinamo showed some vulnerability last round after they went 2-0 down inside 22 minutes at home to Thun (before rescuing it to walk away unscathed at 3-2). So there clearly is a chance for inferior competition to get a foothold if Dinamo’s caught off guard.
  
  Of course, while it may occasionally leave itself vulnerable, Dinamo’s underlying control is undeniably. They’ve averaged close to 60% possession and 15.7 shots per game in their last six while averaging 1.83 goals scored per game against just 0.67 conceded.
  
  As such, we expect 90 minutes of sustained Dinamo pressure against a team that only leads its own domestic league by the width of a goal difference to prove too much. Particularly with Beljo being the kind of finisher who’ll punish every defensive lapse.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Dinamo Zagreb

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Dinamo Zagreb Victory

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.22

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.39-1.53

⚽ Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz
🏟️ UEFA Champions League Qualifications (Round 3)
📅 Wednesday 05 August; 20:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Turkey’s league (Fenerbahce) sits 9th in UEFA’s coefficient ranking; Austria’s (Sturm Graz) ranks 21st.

  • Sturm dismantled Hearts 6-0 on aggregate last round while Fenerbahce only just squeezed past Gornik Zabrze 2-1.

  • Fenerbahce are unbeaten against Sturm in past head-to-heads. However, this is ancient history, and Fenerbahce haven’t reached the CL since 2008-09 — a 17-year absence from.

• CXSports says: Both Fenerbahce and Sturm Graz were runners up in their domestic leagues last season. However, Turkey’s league sits 9th in UEFA’s coefficient rankings while Austria’s sits in 21st place. In other words Fenerbahce’s runner-up finish was earned in a league roughly twice as strong as Sturm’s. And once you add squad depth into the equation, Fenerbahce look even better — they field full internationals, with names like Nathan Aké, Nélson Semedo and Çağlar Söyüncü behind Talisca (who’s already scored in both qualifying legs). So on paper, in cash, and in individual quality, this is a strong mismatch that leans heavily in favor of the hosts.
  
  But those figures only tell half the story. Sturm Graz aren’t exactly tourists at this level — they’ve already reached the Champions League league phase in both 2023-24 and 2024-25. So they’re already a well-proven entity here with more than enough recent experience in the bag to make an impact here. What’s more, they also arrive at this game in a better competitive rhythm after having already played Bundesliga football while Fenerbahce’s league is yet to start.
  
  And we can see glimpses of how that dynamic is already playing out. In the last round, Sturm obliterated Hearts 6-0 on aggregate while Fenerbahce only managed a 2-1 aggregate to squeeze past modest Gornik Zabrze. Of course, we can’t ignore differences in country coefficients here, and Hearts do, admittedly, hail from a slightly lower ranked domestic scene than Gornik Zabrze. However, the difference isn’t that great, and certainly not enough to fully explain away the difference between a 2-1 and 6-0 aggregate.
  
  With that said, there is one thing that tips this back in Fenerbahce’s favor — their home reliability. They’ve conceded just once across their last five home games. They also have a historical advantage over Austrian opponents, including a 3-2 aggregate win over this same Sturm side in 2017-18. As such, we expect the most likely outcome here will be Fenerbahce to control possession and probe patiently to build a working lead over Graz. However, Sturm’s current sharpness could threaten that, meaning the most likely outcome here will be a narrow single-goal home victory with a good possibility of Sturm holding it to a draw.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Fenerbahce or 1-1 Draw

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (Fenerbahce / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.03-1.11

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Fenerbahce Victory

• Odds Range: 1.29-1.42

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back later this week with plenty more as we look at the Europa qualification action taking place this week.

Until then, enjoy the football.

PS: Europa qualifiers this week get underway tomorrow (4 Aug.) with Larne FC vs Iberia 1999 (21:00) and Shamrock Rovers vs FK Egnatia (21:00) in the Europa League, and FK Auda vs FK Dinamo Tirana (18:00) in the Europa Conference League.