Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This week, we’ve got a quiet start to the week with not too much happening until Thursday, when the UEFA Nations League and the Africa Cup of Nations both kick off. So today, we’re looking at the first of these — the Nations League.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• The full UEFA Nations League match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from this week’s Nations League matches. ✅

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Starting later this week we’ve got a massive lineup of matches coming up in the UEFA Nations League. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🇪🇺 UEFA Nations League

Thursday 24 September

• 18:00 — Andorra vs Malta

• 20:45 — Austria vs Israel

• 20:45 — Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland

• 20:45 — Liechtenstein vs Lithuania

• 20:45 — Netherlands vs Germany

• 20:45 — Norway vs Denmark

• 20:45 — Portugal vs Wales

• 20:45 — Serbia vs Greece

Friday 25 September

• 18:00 — Armenia vs Latvia

• 18:00 — Georgia vs Northern Ireland

• 20:45 — Hungary vs Ukraine

• 20:45 — Italy vs Belgium

• 20:45 — Montenegro vs Cyprus

• 20:45 — Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

• 20:45 — Sweden vs Romania

• 20:45 — Turkey vs France

Saturday 26 September

• 15:00 — Slovenia vs Scotland

• 18:00 — Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

• 18:00 — Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan

• 18:00 — Iceland vs Estonia

• 18:00 — San Marino vs Finland

• 20:45 — Albania vs Belarus

• 20:45 — Czech Republic vs Croatia

• 20:45 — England vs Spain

• 20:45 — North Macedonia vs Switzerland

• 20:45 — Slovakia vs Moldova

Sunday 27 September

• 15:00 — Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

• 18:00 — Austria vs Kosovo

• 18:00 — Denmark vs Wales

• 18:00 — Gibraltar vs Andorra

• 18:00 — Serbia vs Netherlands

• 20:45 — Germany vs Greece

• 20:45 — Israel vs Republic of Ireland

• 20:45 — Norway vs Portugal

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Portugal vs Wales
🏟️ UEFA Nations League
📅 Thursday 24 September; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Over the past 12 months, Portugal managed 3W/3D/1L against 2026 World Cup teamswith a +7 goal difference. Wales went 0W/2D/3L with a -6 goal difference.

  • Wales haven't kept a clean sheet since November.

  • Portugal have only lost once in 90 minutes this calendar year (and that was to the 91st-minute winner Spain scored in the World Cup final 16).

• CXSports says: If we compare these two over the last twelve months against teams that went to this summer's World Cup, a massive skill gap becomes apparent. In that time, Portugal’s played seven games against World Cup-level opponents, and every game was either away or on a neutral ground. And from that, they only lost once, going down 1-0 to Spain in the final 16 at the World Cup itself. And that was to a 91st minute goal. As for the rest of their games, they took three wins and three draws, scored 10 goals, and only conceded 3. Wales, on the other hand, has played five, four of which were at home, and they won a grand total of none — they only managed 2 draws and 3 losses, while only scoring 4 against 10 conceded.
  
  And if we look beyond World Cup-level competition only, the current moment doesn’t exactly look that great for Wales, either. They’re winless in four, (three 1-1 draws and a 2-1 loss in Romania). And they haven't kept a clean sheet in five. The last time they won anything was back in November against North Macedonia, which isn’t exactly a challenge. And now, they’ll be travelling without Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor (the centre-back pairing they’ve been built around) and probably without Harry Wilson (who’s their most reliable source of goals).
  
  Of course, Portugal's not without its hurdles. Notably, Jorge Jesus has never managed a national team and has zero games in charge. Although, he previously coached 13 of the 25 players on the squad before, so this isn’t exactly alien territory for him.
  
  As for the history between these two — the last two meetings ended 3-0 and 2-0 in Portugal’s favor, while the last time Wales won a game was all the way back in 1951. So no prizes for guessing who we’re tipping in this one.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Portugal

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Portugal Victory

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.25

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.47-1.71

⚽ San Marino vs Finland
🏟️ UEFA Nations League
📅 Saturday 26 September; 18:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Finland are 6-for-6 in this fixture with 23-2 on aggregate.

  • San Marino's defence depends heavily on who they're playing — since October 2025 they've conceded 22 goals in four games against qualifier-level European sides, and 6 in four games against smaller nations.

  • While Finland has conceded a lot of goals in recent games, eight of their 13 goals conceded in the last eight came in two matches against Germany and the Netherlands. Against everyone else they've scored 10 and conceded just 5 in six games.

• CXSports says: Over the last eight matches, San Marino have no wins, one draw, and a goal difference of -24. Finland, on the other hand, has three wins, a draw, and four losses and a goal difference of -3. And if the Finnish goal difference looks strong relative to San Marino, it only gets better once you look at the breakdown of matches — eight of the thirteen goals they conceded (against 10 scored) came in two games against Germany and the Netherlands (4-0 in both games). Remove those and Finland has 10 scored and 5 conceded in six games against opposition roughly at or below their own level.
  
  Meanwhile, if we apply some adjustment to San Marino's numbers, things move in the opposite direction. Against the small nations they played in the spring (the Faroe Islands, Andorra, Bangladesh and Azerbaijan), they conceded 1.5 per game, while against World Cup-qualifying-level European sides (Austria, Cyprus, Romania and Czechia), they conceded a massive 5.5 per game. San Marino’s also gone 22 months without a single win in any game (and they’ve scored just 0.5 goals per game in this window).
  
  As for the head-to-head history here, Finland has won all six meetings with a scoreline of 23-2 on aggregate, which more or less tells us most of what we need to know. The only thing worth adding is that, in San Marino they've “only” won 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1 (5-1 on aggregate), which tends to suggest that, while they’re still clearly better, Finland’s not quite so dominant when playing at San Marino.
  
  As for how this plays out — well, the numbers tell us everything we need to know. Finland will win this one, with the only real question being “by how many goals?” And given their modest away performance in this fixture, that’s how we’re going to tip it.

• Score prediction: 0-2 for Finland

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Finland Victory

• Odds Range: 1.04-1.13

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.38

⚽ Slovakia vs Moldova
🏟️ UEFA Nations League
📅 Saturday 26 September; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Moldova’s played 15 straight games without a single win or clean sheet.

  • Over the past 8 games (against comparable opposition), Slovakia scored 1.63 and conceded 1.13 per game while Moldova scored 1.00 and conceded 2.38.

  • Slovakia's attack can struggle when faced with weaker sides — in four qualifiers against Luxembourg and Northern Ireland they scored just four goals.

• CXSports says: The rankings alone more or less give this one away before we even look at a single stat — 45th against 159th. And the actual numbers behind those rankings look pretty much like how we’d expect.
  
  Moldova, for its part, hasn’t won a single game in 15 straight matches (and they conceded in every single one of those games). Indeed, the last time they won anything was a narrow 1-0 win over Andorra way back in November 2024, and have conceded in all 15 without scoring anywhere near enough in return to be competitive. In fact, over their last 8 matches against roughly comparable competition, they’ve conceded at a rate of 2.38 goals per game while only averaging 1.00 in response. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s equivalent eight games brought five wins with an aggregate of 13-9. And if we really want to double check how these two size up against each other, both have played Romania in the past year — Slovakia beat Romania 2-0; Moldova lost 2-1.
  
  So the only real question here is how big Slovakia’s win will be. And from the looks of it, it won’t be huge. Indeed, their own coach has said publicly that his team struggles when it has to attack a weaker side, with recent games against inferior opposition tending to end 1-0.
  
  As such, this looks like it’s going to end in a victory for Slovakia. Albeit, with some effort.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Slovakia

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Slovakia Victory

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.31

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.44-1.62

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to the upcoming Cup of Nations games set to kick off this Thursday.

Until then, enjoy the football.