Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Happy hump day everyone. To celebrate, we’ve got a nice big batch of UEFA Nations League games. Let’s get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This week’s UEFA Nations League (Round 3) match schedules. 🗓️

• Our top three picks from the bunch. ✅

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Today, we’re looking ahead to this week’s upcoming matches in round 3 of the UEFA Nations League. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🇪🇺 UEFA Nations League (Round 3)

Thursday 01 October

• 18:00 — Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein

• 20:45 — Denmark vs Portugal

• 20:45 — Germany vs Serbia

• 20:45 — Greece vs Netherlands

• 20:45 — Israel vs Kosovo

• 20:45 — Malta vs Gibraltar

• 20:45 — Republic of Ireland vs Austria

• 20:45 — Wales vs Norway

Friday 02 October

• 16:00 — Kazakhstan vs Moldova

• 18:00 — Cyprus vs Armenia

• 18:00 — Latvia vs Montenegro

• 20:45 — Belgium vs Turkey

• 20:45 — Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden

• 20:45 — Faroe Islands vs Slovakia

• 20:45 — France vs Italy

• 20:45 — Hungary vs Georgia

• 20:45 — Poland vs Romania

• 20:45 — Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

Saturday 03 October

• 15:00 — Finland vs Albania

• 18:00 — Belarus vs San Marino

• 18:00 — Croatia vs England

• 18:00 — Estonia vs Luxembourg

• 18:00 — Iceland vs Bulgaria

• 20:45 — North Macedonia vs Scotland

• 20:45 — Spain vs Czech Republic

• 20:45 — Switzerland vs Slovenia

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein
🏟️ UEFA Nations League (Round 3)
📅 Thursday 01 October; 18:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Liechtenstein have scored 0 goals and conceded 20 in their last 5 away games.

  • Liechtenstein have failed to score in 4 straight games, losing each one 0-2.

  • Both sides have faced Lithuania this year — Azerbaijan drew 1-1 while Liechtenstein lost 0-2 at home.

• CXSports says: Liechtenstein have scored one goal in their last five matches, and none in their last four. Even worse, every one of their last five away games has ended without a goal, and they conceded 20 across those games. Now, of course, there were some heavy defeats in those games against Belgium, Kazakhstan and North Macedonia (teams above this level). However, even against more comparable teams, they still lost 0-2 in Andorra in June, 0-2 in Malta four days ago, and 0-2 at home to Lithuania before that.
  
  With that said, the case for Azerbaijan isn’t exactly stellar. While they do have 11 goals in their last six games, six of those goals came in a single afternoon against Saint Lucia — once we take that out they only have 5 goals in 5 games. Although, if we look at Liechtenstein’s defensive record — particularly in away games — Azerbaijan’s probably in with a shot at bumping up its scoring rate again in this game.
  
  We’ve also got a nice little common opponent test in this fixture, with both teams having played Lithuania this year. Here, Lithuania beat Liechtenstein 2-0 in Liechtenstein, while Azerbaijan went to Lithuania last Sunday and drew 1-1.
  
  As such, the answer here is clearly Azerbaijan. This is a team that scores (albeit modestly) playing against a team that concedes at least two a game while never managing a reply.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Azerbaijan

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Azerbaijan Victory

• Odds Range: 1.06-1.16

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.49

⚽ Germany vs Serbia
🏟️ UEFA Nations League (Round 3)
📅 Thursday 01 October; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • These two have both played the Netherlands and Greece — the shot counts suggests a wider gap than the results (Germany took 1 point; Serbia none). Germany outshot Greece 14-6; Greece outshot Serbia 26-9. Meanwhile, the Netherlands outshot Germany 22-10 in Amsterdam, while the Netherlands outshot Serbia 25–11 in Belgrade.

  • Serbia’s gone 11 matches without a clean sheet and have conceded 19 goals in 8 games.

  • Serbia lost their last 4 matches away from home while scoring just 1 goal against 13 conceded.

• CXSports says: Germany haven’t won in four matches, which doesn’t exactly bode well for the side that should be the favorite. However, Serbia also suffered the exact same fate, albeit somewhat worse — they’ve lost 4 straight games, while Germany at least managed to draw 2 of its last 4. What’s more, the last two matches these two have played have been against the same 2 teams — Greece and the Netherlands. And while Germany doesn’t look that much better than Serbia here in terms of shot count, the fact Germany managed to draw while playing on the road while Serbia lost at home still points to the Germans being better.
  
  Playing on the road against Greece last Sunday, Germany took 14 shots to Greece’s 6 and only ended up losing to a deflected goal that came from Greece’s only shot on target. Meanwhile, Serbia took on Greece at home and found itself outshot by a significant margin (26-9). And as for each sides’ game against the Netherlands, both teams found themselves outshot by the Dutch side. However, again, Germany’s numbers were noticeably better,  Dutch shots to Serbia’s 11, in front of their own crowd. Both teams played the same two opponents in the same competition. One team was unlucky and the other was overrun.
  
  So where does that leave us for this match? Well, Germany looks marginally better based on recent results alone. However, the broader Serbian defense is probably where “marginally better” turns into “noticeably better”. In Serbia’s last 8 matches since Veljko Paunovic took charge, they’ve conceded 19 goals at a rate of 2.4 per game, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in 11 straight matches. And away from home it’s worse — in their three away games this year, they’ve conceded 11 goals (3.67 per game) against just 1 scored. Meanwhile, Germany’s been much tighter (both on the road and at home).
  
  However, none of that’s to say Germany isn’t without its weaknesses (just look at its recent results for proof). After all, they have only scored 1 goal in two Nations League games this campaign. And they’ve conceded in both of those games. What’s more, Klopp’s believed to be bringing in about 20 fresh players (some of them uncapped) for this game, so this team could look like a total bunch of strangers. Serbia have scored exactly once in each of their last three matches and will probably manage one here. And all of that leaves a big question mark over Germany.
  
  With that said, there’s no getting past the fact that Serbia’s defense is as leaky as it is (particularly when playing away), and now they’ll be facing a team that, despite encountering a few bumps along the road, has still performed noticeably better in this Nations League campaign. As such, we’re tipping Germany here.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Germany

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Germany Victory

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.30

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.45

⚽ Spain vs Czech Republic
🏟️ UEFA Nations League (Round 3)
📅 Saturday 03 October; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Czech Republic only managed 3 goals scored against 10 conceded in their last 5 matches with no wins.

  • Spain has kept 9 clean sheets in its 14 matches this year, while Czech hasn’t stopped anyone scoring all year.

  • Spain’s only dropped points in 3 games this year, and each was against inferior opponents (0-0 vs Cape Verde, 0-0 vs Egypt, 1-1 vs Iraq).

• CXSports says: In theory, Spain takes this one and it’s not even close. In 14 matches this year, they’ve won 11, while the other 3 were draws. And, in the process of doing that, they scored 28 goals while conceding just 6. Oh, and did we mention that they’re the reigning world and European champions, unbeaten in 40 straight internationals, and that they’ve won their last 9 matches in a row?
  
  Now compare that to the Czech Republic, who’ve gone 5 games without a win while only scoring 3 but conceding a whopping 10. And, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 9 matches this year. What’s worse is that Spain’s run this year includes an entire World Cup, while the Czechs’ finished bottom of their group with one point after losing to the likes of South Korea and Mexico — teams a class below some of the competition Spain took on and defeated.
  
  Now, with all of that said, we probably still need to deal with the fact that Spain does have a couple of flaws. Notably, that their only dropped points this year came against weaker sides (0-0 vs Cape Verde, 0-0 vs Egypt, 1-1 vs Iraq). So there’s always the risk that they sit back and take things a little too easy. Now combine that with the fact they’ll be travelling to Croatia three days after this game, which might serve as a double invitation to take this one a little too easy. Although, a Czech side that’s scored once in its two Nations League games this campaign is unlikely to do much with that. Chances are, even if Spain don’t bring their A game, they’ll still win this hands down, even if it doesn’t result in a proper goalfest.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Spain

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Spain Victory

• Odds Range: 1.03-1.14

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.60

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back later in the week as we look ahead to the action coming up this weekend, including round 4 of the UEFA Nations League.

Until then, enjoy the football.