Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

This weekend, we’ve got heaps of action coming up across LATAM and European leagues. So let’s take a look at what’s coming up.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This weekend’s Serie A, Primera Division, and Allsvenskan match schedules. 🗓️

• Three quick picks for this weekend, with one pick from each league. ✅

Sharing is caring: Help grow the team and show your friends you care — send them this link https://whataretheodds.io/subscribe

This weekend, we’ve got a great line up of matches across the Serie A (Brazil), Primera Division (Argentina), and the Allsvenskan (Sweden). Here’s the full schedule for Saturday and Sunday. (Note: all dates and times are in Paris/Europe time)

🇧🇷 Brazil — Serie A

25 Jul Saturday – Round 20

• 23:30 — Athletico Paranaense vs Internacional

• 23:30 — Santos vs Chapecoense

26 Jul Sunday – Round 20

• 01:30 — Vasco Da Gama RJ vs Mirassol SP

• 21:00 — Bahia vs Corinthians

• 21:00 — Cruzeiro vs Botafogo RJ

• 23:30 — Red Bull Bragantino vs Coritiba PR

• 23:30 — Flamengo RJ vs Sao Paulo

• 23:30 — Gremio RS vs Fluminense

🇦🇷 Argentina — Primera Division

25 Jul Saturday – Round 1

• 00:00 — Racing Avellaneda vs Gimnasia La Plata

• 00:00 — Velez Sarsfield vs Instituto de Cordoba

• 02:15 — Atletico Huracan vs Banfield

• 02:15 — CA Platense vs Union de Santa Fe

• 19:45 — Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Club Atletico Tigre

• 22:00 — Newell's Old Boys vs Talleres de Cordoba

26 Jul Sunday – Round 1

• 00:15 — River Plate vs Barracas Central

• 02:30 — Lanus vs San Lorenzo

• 20:00 — Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente Rivadavia

• 22:15 — Estudiantes de La Plata vs Atletico Independiente

🇸🇪 Sweden — Allsvenskan

25 Jul Saturday – Round 14

• 15:00 — Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF

• 17:30 — Kalmar vs Mjallby

26 Jul Sunday – Round 14

• 14:00 — Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby IF

• 14:00 — IK Sirius vs IFK Goteborg

• 16:30 — GAIS Gothenburg vs Halmstad

• 16:30 — Malmo vs Elfsborg

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ River Plate vs Barracas Central
🏟️ Primera Division (Argentina)
📅 Sunday 26 July; 00:15 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With a dominant head-to-head history and a home advantage, River Plate’s more or less a sure thing against an out of shape Barracas side.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • River Plate’s won five straight against Barracas with 14-1 on aggregate (2.80 goals per game for River; 0.20 for Barracas).

  • At home, River has scored 11 goals in the last 3 H2H meetings while only conceding once (3-0, 3-0 and 5-1).

  • Barracas Central has only won a single game in their last nine matches and suffered an eight-match winless run.

• CXSports says: Based on season averages alone, this fixture already leans heavily in River’s favor — they currently sit at 1.38 goals scored per game against just 0.75 conceded per game. Meanwhile, Barracas Central averages just 0.94 scored per game while also conceding 0.94 per game. And let’s not forget that Barracas recently suffered an 8-match winless run, only breaking the dry spell with a narrow 1-0 over Huracan.
  
  Barracas also arrive at this fixture with a couple of disadvantages. First, they haven’t played since 2 June. And second, they’re the visitors. And that matters quite a bit in this one given River’s strength at home. While the last 5 head-to-heads in this fixture sit at River 14-1 Barracas, three of those are River home games with 11-1 on aggregate.
  
  With all that said, there are a couple of caveats that might be worth considering. First, River’s had a couple of disappointments lately, including a loss in the Apertura final (2-3 to Belgrano), and then opened this semester by getting knocked out of the Copa Argentina in a 1-3 loss to Aldosivi. So there’s a chance that’s going to be playing on team morale.
  
  The other caveat is River’s back line, which has been rather hastily assembled — Otamendi and Montiel arrive straight from a World Cup after having played 49 matches and seven of eight tournament fixtures respectively, while 21-year-old Santiago Beltran will be taking the gloves from Armani behind them. So between fatigue and inexperience, River’s usually-solid defense is arguably at heightened risk of conceding. Of course, with Barracas having just had a 54-day layoff, there’s a good chance a current lack of match form will render this point moot. (Not to mention Barracas miserable stats before the rest break.)
  
  As such, expect this one to lean heavily in River’s favor while still allowing the possibility that an otherwise low-scoring Barracas has a slightly increased chance of scoring a goal (although the odds of that are still very low).

• Score prediction: 2-0 for River Plate

Bet Option #1

• Bet: River Plate Victory

• Odds Range: 1.27-1.40

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.39-1.44

⚽ GAIS Gothenburg vs Halmstad
🏟️ Allsvenskan (Sweden)
📅 Sunday 26 July; 16:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Halmstad is the worst squad in the league, so backing just about anyone they play is usually a good move.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Halmstad are conceding 2.15 goals per game this season — the worst rate in the entire league. And that rate has worsened to 2.60 per game over their last five.

  • GAIS have won all three of their home meetings in this fixture with a solid 8-1 on aggregate across those games.

  • Halmstad has only won a single league match all season against three draws and nine defeats from 13 games.

• CXSports says: Halmstad’s numbers aren’t even close to being competitive. They’ve got just one win in thirteen league matches. And over those games, they’ve only scored 10 goals (worst in the league) while conceding 28 (worst in the league). What’s worse, over the last five games they’ve played, their leaky defense has deteriorated even further, with 13 conceded in their last 5 at a rate of 2.60 per game. And now, they’re travelling to a ground where they’ve lost all three previous visits by an aggregate of 8-1.
  
  With that said, there’s a complication here. Right now, GAIS has their attention elsewhere. Earlier this week, they faced off against Danish club Nordsjælland (where they won 1-0 at this same stadium in the first leg of a European qualifying tie). And right after this match, they’re off to Denmark to defend that one-goal lead in the reverse leg. And the logic here is simple — a manager with a European tie on his mind who finds himself faced with a tight schedule where a bottom-placed opponent is wedged in between 2 high profile matches likely does some timple arithmetic — he rests his best players. So rotation is more or less a given in this game.
  
  Of course, that might not have too much of an impact on who takes the points from this game — GAIS has enough depth that they can rotate to their hearts content and still leave Halmstad in the dust. As such, the most probable failure mode here is a laboured, low-tempo afternoon where the attack does just enough to take the victory. As such, while we should still expect a GAIS victory here (and a clear one at that), maybe don’t hold your breath for a scoreline that’s on the same scale as their last three against Halmstad.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for GAIS Gothenburg

Bet Option #1

• Bet: GAIS Gothenburg Victory

• Odds Range: 1.24-1.36

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 1.5)

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.20

⚽ Flamengo RJ vs Sao Paulo
🏟️ Serie A (Brazil)
📅 Sunday 26 July; 23:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: It’s not spectacular, but the double chance play on this one’s about as solid as they come.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Flamengo’s scoring 2.50 goals per game across recent matches while Sao Paulo’s only averaging 1.00.

  • This has traditionally been a relatively low-scoring fixture with an average of 2 goals per game across the last five meetings and only one of those producing more than two goals, while two ended goalless or 1-0.

  • Flamengo hasn’t lost at home to Sao Paulo in their last three meetings (2-0, 2-1 and 1-1).

• CXSports says: The raw head-to-head history in this fixture presents a bit of a trap — over the last five meetings these two are reasonably level: one Flamengo victory, two draws, and two Sao Paulo wins with a 5-5 scoreline on aggregate. So, at face value, that might suggest this one’s a bit of a coin-flip. But here’s the catch — four of those five fixtures were played at Sao Paulo’s home ground. The single match where Flamengo was at home was a clean 2-0 home victory. And, if we widen the window a little, Flamengo’s last three home matches against Sao Paulo are even more telling — 2-0, 2-1 and 1-1. As such, the home advantage is arguably one of the biggest factors in this fixture, which already places Flamengo ahead here.
  
  But that’s not all — just about everything else favours the hosts, too. Flamengo currently sits second in the league with 37 points from 18 league games, while Sao Paulo’s back in twelfth place with 25 from 19 — a twelve-point gap with a game in hand. Then there’s also the fact that Flamengo score 1.94 league goals per game while conceding just 0.89, while Sao Paulo’s averaging 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded. And if we loo at recent form, that gap only widens — Flamengo’s taken 15 goals from their last six matches (2.50 per game), while Sao Paulo’s only scored six in six (1.00 per game).
  
  With that said, there’s a couple of points that might hold back the scoreline. Flamengo’s missing three key players to injury — Arrascaeta, Paqueta and Pulgar — which thins out the middle. And Sao Paulo, for all their domestic struggles, still top their continental group after having conceded just a single goal in six matches there, which is the profile of a team that can dig in if the game plan is survival.
  
  Of course, none of that rules out the huge advantage Flamengo has in this fixture, even if it does point to a low-scoring game in an already low-scoring fixture while opening up the chance of a draw.

• Score prediction: 1-0 for Flamengo RJ

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Flamengo RJ Victory

• Odds Range: 1.34-1.51

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Flamengo / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.06-1.13

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s it for this week. We’ll be back next week as we look ahead to all the action taking place in the European qualifiers.

Until then, enjoy the weekend.