Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a big weekend ahead with a busy schedule of games across Europe’s top leagues (PS: read to the end for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin if you’re looking for a sure thing). So let’s get right into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This weekend’s Bundesliga, Premier League, and Ligue 1 match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top three picks, with 1 hot pick from each league. ✅

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This weekend we’ve got a packed schedule with matches coming up across all the biggest leagues. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League

Friday 18 September

• 21:00 — Brentford vs Chelsea

Saturday 19 September

• 13:30 — Tottenham vs Aston Villa

• 16:00 — Brighton vs Arsenal

• 16:00 — Everton vs Ipswich

• 16:00 — Newcastle vs Hull City

• 18:30 — Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City

Sunday 20 September

• 15:00 — Bournemouth vs Liverpool

• 15:00 — Leeds vs Crystal Palace

• 15:00 — Man City vs Sunderland

• 17:30 — Fulham vs Man Utd

🇫🇷 Ligue 1

Friday 18 September

• 20:45 — Monaco vs Lens

Saturday 19 September

• 17:15 — Paris FC vs Strasbourg

• 20:45 — Angers vs Troyes

• 20:45 — Le Mans vs Lorient

• 20:45 — Lyon vs Rennes

• 20:45 — Toulouse vs Le Havre

Sunday 20 September

• 15:00 — Auxerre vs Brest

• 17:15 — Nice vs Lille

• 20:45 — Marseille vs PSG

🇩🇪 Bundesliga

Friday 18 September

• 20:30 — Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin

Saturday 19 September

• 15:30 — Borussia Monchengladbach vs Mainz

• 15:30 — Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg

• 15:30 — Hamburg vs FC Cologne

• 15:30 — Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

• 18:30 — Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

Sunday 20 September

• 15:30 — Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

• 17:30 — Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg

• 19:30 — SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Manchester City vs Sunderland
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Sunday 20 September; 15:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • In 15 visits, Sunderland hasn’t won a single away game against Manchester City.

  • City has scored 8 goals and only conceded 2 in their first four matches in the EPL this season (all of them wins).

  • Sunderland's has only scored 3 goals while conceding 5 in its first four EPL matches this season (1W/1D/2L).

• CXSports says: Manchester City seems to have made the post-Guardiola changeover smoothly. Since Enzo Maresca took the reins, they’ve won all six games he’s managed. And that includes a perfect league record, which currently stands at four wins from four, with 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Sunderland, meanwhile, are walking into a ground where they haven’t won in 15 visits dating all the way back to January 1998 — long enough ago that most of the players in the squad weren’t even alive when it happened.
  
  Given that, what hope does Sunderland actually have. Well, after finishing seventh last season, they earned their first European campaign in over half a century. And they haven’t done nothing with it — on Wednesday they beat Dutch side AZ Alkmaar 1-0. So there’s at least something looking like “momentum” which we can point towards. Not that it counts for much here. After all, they only scored a single goal in that game, while also only scoring 3 goals in its 4 games Premier League games this season (0.75 per game). And, it’s also hard not to notice that they’re sitting in 14th (which is worse than last year’s finish) with a goal difference of -2. And, they haven’t won an away game in recent history. And even if we assume some of last year's miracle performances can make a comeback here, that might not even count for much — apart from the two relegated clubs, Sunderland had the fewest shots and the lowest expected-goals total in the division. And if that wasn’t bad enough, they’re also coming into this one without defender Reinildo (suspended), and two injured attacking players — Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle.
  
  Of course, City has absences of its own. Notably Phil Foden, one of their best attacking players (suspended), and winger Jeremy Doku who’s out with a calf injury. Not that that’s going to make much of a difference — the rest of the numbers point so heavily in City’s direction that even at sub-optimal capacity, City’s still a big step up from Sunderland.
  
  As for how that means this one plays out — Sunderland's last five games have all finished with two goals or under, so there’s a chance this City won’t be able to blow the margin out to ridiculous proportions. Rather, this one’s more likely to be more of a slow methodical take down, with City being the one doing the taking down.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Manchester City

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Manchester City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.34

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.60-1.85

⚽ Marseille vs PSG
🏟️ French Ligue 1
📅 Sunday 20 September; 20:45 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Marseille’s lost four games in a row across all competitions. They scored 3 and conceded 10 in that run.

  • The aggregate across the last 5 games in this fixture is PSG 13-4 Marseille 13-4 across the last five meetings, with the most recent game ending 5-0 in PSG’s favor.

  • Marseille are arriving at this game off the back of a Thursday night defeat in Istanbul (where they conceded three second-half goals). PSG’s had a full week of rest.

• CXSports says: In their first game this season, Marseille went 4-0 up on opening night against Strasbourg, which set some high expectations for the season. But, since then, they’ve turned into a disaster, losing their last four straight games across all competitions while scoring just 3 goals and conceding 10. And the most recent of those losses came just a few days ahead of this game, on Thursday in Istanbul, where they were level 1-1 at half-time before conceding 3 second-half goals to go down 4-1. And now they have just three days to recover before hosting the defending Ligue 1 champ, PSG (who hasn’t played since last Sunday when they won 1-0 at Brest).
  
  Of course, PSG aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders (yet…). In fact, their league stats look almost identical to Marseille’s — both teams have 6 scored and 6 conceded. The only difference is, PSG has 5 points from 1W/2D/1L, while Marseille only has 3 from 1W/0D/3L. However, as close as the league numbers are, the general trajectory each team is on right now suggests the difference is bigger than first meets the eye.
  
  Unlike Marseille (who’s currently on a losing streak), PSG looks like it’s starting to get its act together. They won their last two by a combined 7-1 (one Ligue 1 game, 1 Champions League game). Further, PSG’s gone unbeaten in its three away games in the league this season. History also tends to favor PSG here, who’s won three of the last five head-to-heads while out scoring Marseille 13-4, with the most recent game ending in a 5-0 thrashing (the biggest margin in this fixture’s history).
  
  So, does Marseille have any hope here? Well, they have scored 3.0 goals per game in their two home league matches. Although, four of those were on opening night — the only game they’ve won all season (Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg) — while the other two came in a game they lost (Marseille 2-3 Paris FC). So there’s a chance they might be able to exploit PSG's leaky back line, although we’re not convinced simply scoring will be enough, particularly given the difference in fatigue levels and general trajectory between these two clubs. As such, expect to see PSG end this one on top.

• Score prediction: 1-3 for PSG

Bet Option #1

• Bet: PSG Victory

• Odds Range: 1.26-1.44

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.45-1.64

⚽ Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
🏟️ German Bundesliga
📅 Friday 18 September; 20:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Bayern has won every time these two have played on Bayern’s turf, and they haven’t conceded a single goal in the last 5 (15-0 on aggregate).

  • Union’s leaked 10 goals in its three league matches this season (3.33 goals conceded per game — the second-worst defence in the Bundesliga) and only scored 4 in response.

  • Bayern’s scored 7 goals while only conceding 2 in its 3 Bundesliga games this season.

• CXSports says: Union Berlin are in poor shape. In three league games under their new Swiss coach (Mauro Lustrinelli), they’ve conceded 10 goals (3.33 per match — the second-worst defence in the Bundesliga) while only scoring 4 in response. And, if we zoom out a bit to see if there’s anything there once the early jitters from the transition to a new coach settle, things don’t look much better — they haven't kept a clean sheet in 13 consecutive games, and they’ve lost seven of their last nine away league matches. Meanwhile, Bayern’s unbeaten this season with 7 scored and just 2 conceded. So that’s what the current form looks like. But that’s also only 3 games — a rather small sample — so what’s history got to say about this fixture?
  
  Unfortunately for Berlin, history doesn’t offer any hope. They have played Bayern 15 times and never won. What’s worse, in Munich (where this game’s set to take place), Berlin’s lost every single game. In fact, it hasn’t just lost every single game — it hasn’t even scored a goal in the last 5, with the aggregate across those games sitting at Bayern 15–0 Berlin. Indeed, the last time Berlin scored at Bayern was all the way back in 2019, and they still lost that one 2-1.
  
  As such, this one’s a fairly simple setup. On one side we’ve got an in-form side with a massive historical advantage playing at home. And, on the other, we’ve got the visitors, who’ve had a terrible start to their season and an even more terrible historical run in this fixture. No prizes for guessing which side we’re backing.

• Score prediction: 4-0 for Bayern Munich

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bayern Munich Victory

• Odds Range: 1.02-1.12

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 3.5)

• Odds Range: 1.21-1.50

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for this week. We’ll be back next week with plenty more action, including a preview of the upcoming UEFA Nations League which is set to kick off with round 1.

Until then, enjoy the football.