Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

We’ve got a huge weekend ahead of us with a full slate of matches across all the major European leagues, the CAF Champions League and Confederations Cup, and a bunch of other stuff we don’t have enough breath to mention in a single sentence. So let’s just get straight into it.

What’s ahead in today’s edition of What Are the Odds?:

• This weekend’s LaLiga, Bundesliga, and Premier League match schedules. 🗓️

• Our top three picks — one from Bundesliga, one from Premier League, and another from LaLiga. ✅

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This weekend we’ve got a great lineup of matches across the Bundesliga, the Premier League, and La Liga. (Note: all dates and times are in CEST)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League

Saturday 17 October

• 13:30 — Everton vs Chelsea

• 16:00 — Brentford vs Liverpool

• 16:00 — Fulham vs Hull City

• 16:00 — Man City vs Ipswich

• 18:30 — Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Sunday 18 October

• 15:00 — Bournemouth vs Sunderland

• 15:00 — Brighton vs Crystal Palace

• 15:00 — Leeds vs Man Utd

• 17:30 — Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

🇪🇸 La Liga

Friday 16 October

• 21:00 — Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante

Saturday 17 October

• 14:00 — Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

• 16:15 — Villarreal vs Elche

• 18:30 — Real Betis vs Barcelona

• 21:00 — Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

Sunday 18 October

• 14:00 — Osasuna vs Racing Santander

• 16:15 — Celta Vigo vs Alaves

• 18:30 — Malaga vs Real Sociedad

• 21:00 — Real Madrid vs Sevilla

🇩🇪 Bundesliga

Friday 16 October

• 20:30 — Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne

Saturday 17 October

• 15:30 — Hamburg vs Stuttgart

• 15:30 — Schalke 04 vs Mainz

• 15:30 — SV Elversberg vs Augsburg

• 15:30 — Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

• 15:30 — Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

• 18:30 — Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig

Sunday 18 October

• 15:30 — Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg

• 17:30 — Borussia Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim

Want to get the best odds on these matches?

⚽ Man City vs Ipswich
🏟️ English Premier League
📅 Saturday 16 October; 16:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • City are the only team in the league with a perfect record. Six wins from six, 16 goals scored, and just five conceded.

  • Ipswich haven’t kept a single clean sheet all season with 12 goals conceded in six games, and just 9 scored in response.

  • Ipswich have only beaten weaker opposition — their three wins came against teams that are now 12th, 17th and 20th.

• CXSports says: This one should be fairly obvious — City wins, and it won’t even be particularly close. The reason for that is the gross mismatch at both ends of the pitch. City scores 2.67 goals a game (nearly double the league average of 1.48), and their centre-forward Erling Haaland has 6 goals in 6 games. And they’re now facing an Ipswich defence that’s not only conceded in every game, but done so at a rate of 2.0 a match overall, which creeps up to 2.66 across its three away games. Meanwhile, City’s conceded less than a goal a game, while Ipswich’s rather average offense has only managed 1.33 per game, with the bulk of that coming against weaker opposition.
  
  And speaking of weaker opposition, what might look like Ipswich’s one saving grace at first glance — its three wins this season — isn’t really worth getting excited about. While they have indeed won half of their matches, each of those wins came against weaker opposition — Palace, Sunderland and Fulham, who currently sit in 12th, 17th and 20th, which is a fair way behind where City sits right now (on the top of the table).
  
  And finally, let’s not forget the head-to-head history here. In their last two league clashes with City, Ipswich lost 4-1 and 6-0 for a combined 10-1. And they haven’t beaten City in the league since May 2001.
  
  So where does that leave us? Well, there’s a chance Ipswich might score — they’ve managed to find the net in four of their six games, while City’s conceded in half of theirs. Although, we wouldn’t count on it. And whatever the case might be, none of it will count for much — City’s just way too far ahead of Ipswich on every front.

• Score prediction: 3-1 for Man City

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.17-1.29

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Over 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.31-1.40

⚽ Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
🏟️ German Bundesliga
📅 Saturday 16 October; 18:30 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Bayern’s won the last three head-to-heads between these two with an aggregate score of 13-1.

  • Bayern’s two home games this season ended 7-0 and 5-1 — about three times the 1.9 goals an average Bundesliga team scores.

  • Leipzig has only won at home this season while losing both away games.

• CXSports says: On the face of it, Leipzig don’t look like the worst team out there. In fact, if you look at the Bundesliga table, they’re currently sitting in 5th place — only 2 places behind Bayern. However, there’s a little something skewing Leipzig’s standing at the moment. So far this season, Leipzig’s won all 3 games it played at home, but lost the 2 games it played away (games in which they scored just once and conceding five). And, when the season’s just 5 games deep, that home/away split can skew table standings a little. Now compare that with Bayern. They’re undefeated (both home and away). And, at home, which they will be in this game, they’ve scored a massive 12 goals in two and haven’t lost in 14 games in all competitions.
  
  So stacked against that, what hope does Leipzig have? Well, there are a few things that offer some hope. For one, they do have some pace (they lead the league in sprints), so that could become a weapon (even though it’s mostly been a home-field one so far). And not that it really matters that much on its own, but Bayern did just draw its last two games. And while the results themselves might not be that bad, the timing might be — the first draw was on Sunday against Augsburg, while the second was a UEFA Champions League game on Wednesday. So back-to-back draws combined with what will probably be considerable fatigue from the tight schedule (3 games in under a week!) could slow them down. And that could hurt given that Leipzig was spending the week resting at home.
  
  But still, Bayern’s defense is still among the league’s best. Meanwhile, Leipzig’s best attackers are out for this game, which decreases the chances that a team that’s scored just once in two away games can score in this game. As such, we’re going to call this one in Bayern's favor by a long shot, although we’re expecting the fatigue and momentum problem to tone things down a little from their average of 6 goals per game at home this season.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Bayern Munich

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Bayern Munich Victory

• Odds Range: 1.13-1.27

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 2.50-3.05

⚽ Real Madrid vs Sevilla
🏟️ Spanish La Liga
📅 Sunday 17 October; 21:00 (CEST)

• Top 3 Stats:

  • Madrid’s won the last five head-to-heads between these two in La Liga with an aggregate scoreline of 10-2 (and a clean sheet in 4 of the 5).

  • Madrid’s won all four of their home league games this season with an aggregate of 13-2.

  • Sevilla’s only games this season against strong competition (Barcelona and Atletico Madrid) both ended in 3-1 defeats.

• CXSports says: The head-to-head history in this fixture makes the likely outcome here pretty clear — this game belongs to Madrid. For the record, Madrid’s on a 5-game winning streak, and a 15-game unbeaten streak that hasn’t seen them lose a game to Sevilla since 2018. What’s more, they’re much better at home, which is where they’ll be playing this one — Sevilla haven’t beaten Madrid at home since December 2008. And while Sevilla’s unbeaten away record this season (two wins, two draws) might look like it could offer them some hope here, that hope only exists so long as you don’t look at who the opponents were in those games — clubs that are currently 8th, 10th, 12th and 17th in La Liga. When they met actually decent sides this season, they lost both of those games 3-1. In short, Sevilla basically has no hope.
  
  As for how this one actually plays out in terms of goals, we expect this one to be relatively modest. Only one of the last 5 head-to-heads has gone over a 2-goal aggregate scoreline, with two of them finishing 1-0, another two finishing 2-0, and only one blowing up into a goal fest at 4-2. And did we mention all of those ended with Madrid winning?
  
  With that said, just because four of the last five ended in a clean sheet for Madrid, that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to block Sevilla out in this game. After all, they have conceded in six of their eight games this season. And while Sevilla’s not exactly scoring like an elite side, they have consistently scored in all of their recent games. So we’ll give them a solid shot at earning a goal.
  
  Either way, Madrid has outscored and under-conceded Sevilla this season, has a huge head-to-head advantage, and has an even bigger home ground advantage. So we don’t really see how this one doesn’t end in Madrid’s favor.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Real Madrid

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Real Madrid Victory

• Odds Range: 1.15-1.29

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 4.5)

• Odds Range: 1.25-1.34

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. But we’ll be back bright and early on Monday morning as we take a post-weekend breather and look ahead to the upcoming round 3 in the Champions League

Until then, enjoy the football.