Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

You know that whole “Happy wife, happy life” thing?

Turns out, it’s true. Unhappy WAGs (wives and girlfriends) are one of the biggest problems rocking the EPL right now.

So why are they all so unhappy?

Because the UK sucks (apparently). Here’s what one of ‘em had to say: “People are all weird. You walk around and you don’t know if they’re going to kill you. The food is disgusting.”

Oh well, at least they’ve got good football…

Here’s what’s up in this week’s edition of What Are the Odds?

• This week’s best EPL odds and score predictions. 🦵⚽

• Weekend hissy fits (plus some trivia). 🏟️✨

• Pep’s wise words about making excuses. 🔥

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⚽ Brentford vs Burnley
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 29 Nov; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Nothing fancy here. Just a nice, solid pick to kick the weekend off in style.

• CXSports says: Burnley might have looked okay defensively when they were back in the lower tier last season. But since their EPL promotion, that’s collapsed. To put a number on it, while Burnley’s averaging 1.17 goals per game at the pointy end of the field, they’re leaking a massive 2.00 per game on average (and their away numbers are even worse!). Brentford, meanwhile, is scoring at a rate of about 1.50 goals per game across all matches. But here’s the kicker — that rises to about 2.00 per match when they’re playing at home. And it’s not just stats here, either — the head-to-head history tells it all — Brentford dominated last time around (3-0 in Oct 2023) and, in general, Burnley’s just looking really shaky on the road. That makes a Brentford victory the likely outcome here.

• Score prediction: 2-0 for Brentford

Option #1

• Bet: Brentford Victory

• Odds Range: 1.37-1.53

Option #2

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.88-2.02

⚽ Man City vs Leeds
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 29 Nov; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you like the sound of a sure thing with odds that haven’t collapsed to basically zero, then you’ll like this one.

• CXSports says: City are coming into this fixture with a clear attacking advantage (average of 2.00 goals per game) and a tight defensive average to back it up (0.83 conceded on average). Leeds, on the other hand, is scoring under 1 goal per game (0.92) and conceding nearly twice as much (1.83). And the head-to-head history doesn’t offer much hope for Leeds, either. Nor will the fact that they’re playing this one on City’s home turf — City’s home scoring rate shoots up to a massive 2.67 per match, which means they’ll likely score multiple goals here while completely shutting down Leeds’ already weak attack.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Man City

Option #1

• Bet: Man City Victory

• Odds Range: 1.14-1.28

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.57-1.80

⚽ Sunderland vs Bournemouth
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 29 Nov; 16:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This one goes massively against the consensus — but there’s a pretty good case here for doing so.

• CXSports says: Sunderland comes into this game with a strong home scoring average of 1.80 goals a game and a relatively tight defence (conceding 0.92 on average). Bournemouth, on the other hand, while not too far behind in terms of goals scored (1.58 goals per game on average) concedes at almost double that rate (1.67 per game). That automatically puts them on the back foot in this game, even if they might have had a slight upper hand had this game been on their home ground. And let’s not forget how weak their away form is this season — just 1 victory in 6 away outings. Meanwhile, Sunderland’s home record is unbeaten

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Sunderland

Option #1

• Bet: Sunderland Victory

• Odds Range: 2.60-3.10

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.56-1.75

⚽ Everton vs Newcastle
🏟️ English Premier League
Saturday 29 Nov; 18:30 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: The over/under play on this one looks solid given the stats we’ve seen.

• CXSports says: Let’s be honest here — neither Everton nor Newcastle are doing all that great this season. Both are conceding more than they’re scoring, losing or drawing far more than they’re winning, and both have a rather low goals per game average. And we probably shouldn’t expect too much from this game either — the head-to-head history between these two shows a rather tame 1.9 goals per game on average, along with a fair chance of both teams scoring (56%). So how does this translate into a final score? Aside from it likely being a low-scoring game, we actually don’t know — either side could take this.

• Score prediction: 1-0 or 0-1 for either side

Option #1

• Bet: Over/Under (Under 2.5)

• Odds Range: 1.66-1.83

Option #2

• Bet: Double Chance (Everton / Newcastle)

• Odds Range: 1.18-1.28

Want to get the best odds on these predictions?

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So, did anyone else see Pep Guardiola’s little hissy fit over the weekend?

We did.

Not pretty.

But hey — there’s more to Pep than outbursts. So let’s find out a little bit more about him with a quick quiz from our friends at Masters of Trivia.

Question: Pep Guardiola has been the manager of Manchester City since which year?

• A: 2022

• B: 2020

• C: 2018

• D: 2016

Think you know the answer?

Read to the end to see if you were right.

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Man United
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 30 Nov; 13:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: If you’re willing to trust the numbers and the momentum, the odds on Palace here are mighty tasty.

• CXSports says: Let’s cut to the chase: While Palace might be somewhat modest offensively (1.33 scored per game), they are absolutely rock solid in defense at home (0.75 conceded per game). That could throw a serious spanner in United’s usual attacking approach (1.73 scored per game), particularly given they’re somewhat lacking in defense (1.64 conceded per game). Of course, United do have the upper hand historically (over the long run), but their most recent meetings show Palace punching well above their weight. As such, we’ve got good reason to suspect Palace will seriously frustrate United in this game and likely walk away with the victory.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for Crystal Palace

Option #1

• Bet: Crystal Palace Victory

• Odds Range: 2.17-2.51

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.43-1.61

⚽ Aston Villa vs Wolves
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 30 Nov; 15:05 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: This is another one of those weird “the odds on offer are much more generous than they have any right to be” matches.

• CXSports says: Do we really need to write anything here? On one hand, you’ve got the Wolves — bottom of the table, haven’t won a single game all season (but they sure have lost plenty!). On the other hand, you’ve got Villa —:defensively solid, scoring enough to count, and playing at home. That’s about all you need to know.

• Score prediction: 3-0 for Aston Villa

Option #1

• Bet: Aston Villa Victory

• Odds Range: 1.38-1.55

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (No)

• Odds Range: 1.68-1.91

⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 30 Nov; 15:05 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: Quite frankly, the odds on Brighton here are absolutely huge considering their clear edge.

• CXSports says: So far this season, Forest has been inconsistent, leaking goals, and not scoring with any sort of reliability. Brighton, on the other hand, is in much better shape (the fact that their goal difference is significantly better speaks volumes) and is delivering much better results. Given all of that, expect to see Brighton trample right over any supposed home advantage Forest might pretend to have, score early, and hold onto their lead right through to the end.

• Score prediction: 1-2 for Brighton

Option #1

• Bet: Brighton Victory

• Odds Range: 2.29-2.63

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.53-1.72

⚽ West Ham vs Liverpool
🏟️ English Premier League
Sunday 30 Nov; 15:05 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: We love a solid contrarian pick — and this is one of the more solid ones we’ve seen in a while.

• CXSports says: West Ham is in a sorry state right now. They’re leaking goals left, right, and center (2.08 conceded per match) while barely even managing to score at half that rate (1.25 per match). But here’s where it gets tricky — if you’d asked us about Liverpool’s chances a few weeks ago, there wouldn’t have been a moment of doubt — they’d have the edge. But now, with Liverpool having the second-worst last-5 run in the league (only Wolves “beat” them here), whatever struggles West Ham have been having might not be relevant here. And besides, West Ham’s got some momentum here — 2 victories and a draw in their last 3. In short, while it’s admittedly a long shot, we’re backing West Ham here, despite their apparent weakness.

• Score prediction: 2-1 for West Ham

Option #1

• Bet: West Ham Victory

• Odds Range: 4.00-5.30

Option #2

• Bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes)

• Odds Range: 1.41-1.60

Make your sportsbook work for you!

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Despite his little outburst over the weekend, Pep Guardiola’s not all that bad.

Sometimes, he even has some pretty good advice.

Moral of the story?

It’s not just about football. Making excuses in general is a great way to hold yourself back.

Owning it and correcting course, on the other hand — that’s dynamite if you wanna get ahead.

Want to learn more about Pep Guardiola?

Masters of Trivia is the only trivia app where every player is rewarded. Play all the trivia quizzes you can handle and earn real rewards simply for participating.

Take Masters of Trivia for a spin with the Pep Guardiola Trivia Quiz today.

PS: The answer to this week’s question was [D] — Pep Guardiola has been the manager of Manchester City since 2016. Discover more trivia like this with the Pep Guardiola Trivia Quiz.