Good Morning ☀️,

It’s Lucas here, your Chief Predictions Officer at What Are the Odds?

Today, we’ve got a bit of a cliffhanger of a game where the USA has a shot at basically guaranteeing its place in the knockout rounds. (Okay, technically it’s not guaranteed… but close enough).

But we’ll get to that later. First, here’s what’s ahead.

What’s ahead in today’s edition:

• Why are English football fans always complaining? 😩

• Today’s complete match schedule. 🗓️

• Our top pick of the day. ✅

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🇺🇸 USA vs. Australia 🇦🇺

• Group: Group D

• Time: 15:00 ET

• Venue: Lumen Field

• Location: Seattle

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland vs. Morocco 🇲🇦

• Group: Group C

• Time: 18:00 ET

• Venue: Gillette Stadium

• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts

🇧🇷 Brazil vs. Haiti 🇭🇹

• Group: Group C

• Time: 20:30 ET

• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

• Location: Philadelphia

🇹🇷 Türkiye vs. Paraguay 🇵🇾

• Group: Group D

• Time: 23:00 ET

• Venue: Levi’s Stadium

• Location: Santa Clara, California

Want to get the best odds on today’s matches?

It shouldn’t come as any surprise that English football fans love to whinge. After all, who can blame them when they built their empire on the spice trade, yet somehow still ended up with a national cuisine whose culinary highlights include such irresistible delights as “mushy peas”, boiled potatoes, and cat food.

[Editor’s note: Err… I think “cat food” should probably read “jellied eels”... but fair call… can anyone really tell the difference?]

So for the English fans reading this, we hear you. We’d probably also spend our lives whinging about everything here at What Are the Odds? HQ if we had to describe our food the same way we describe the weather: “50 shades grey.”

But, with that said, there’s something we gotta say — there has to be a limit to the whinging.

So, what are we talking about here?

Well, for those who’ve somehow avoided it all, there are two “big” stories circulating right now in the English press.

The first one is about English fans potentially having their flags confiscated at stadiums/being told to take down flags. To quote one fan (which the Daily Mail attributes to “Dan, 28, from east London”) who more or less sums up the sentiment around the comments sections/social media:

“For the amount of money we have paid it is a joke. But what can you do? It is another occasion where football fans are getting treated like cattle.”

[Editor’s note: That quote sounds fake. What red-blooded East Londoner doesn’t contract his subject-verb pairs (“it is” → “it’s”; “we have” → “we’ve”)…? But whatever, the Daily Mail’s a reputable source, innit? So I’ll let it pass.]

As for why English supporters are being denied their right to fly whatever flags they want, FIFA cites a bunch of reasons, mostly around security. You know — flags must be made of “fire resistant” materials. No "political messaging” allowed. And then there’s “safety concerns” about flags being draped over LED signage. And yeah, on that last point, we totally get it — there’s aren’t many “OMG my life is in danger” moments that top an angry phone call from a sponsor demanding a refund because the inspiring corporate slogan they spent the last 15 board meetings agonizing over ended up getting obscured by a flag.

In any case, we can at least be sympathetic here. Hanging all manner of flags and banners has long been a football tradition. So for anyone who actually cares about the true spirit of “the beautiful game”, seeing “Dan, 28, from East London” being told that he can’t drape his 8ft x 5ft flag over a sponsor’s signage (because “security”) is a bit of a slap in the face.

But here’s where things get interesting.

At the same time the whole flag controversy has been making headlines, a second “security”-related incident has been doing the rounds in the English press. This time, it’s reports about poor stadium security.

The headlines here are all more or less the same. Ticketless fans sneaking past security to get into games. Apparently, “scores” (as in, a lot) of ticketless English fans have been doing it.

[Editor’s note: I got sidetracked reading the comments section of that linked article when I was fact checking this… Kudos to the guy who commented with “FIFA was quite happy as it showed a completely full stadium, better than the usual half-empty ones.”… lol.]

What’s interesting about this, however, has nothing to do with “boo hoo, stadium security bad.” Instead, we’re more interested in some of the comments being made by the ticketed fans.

Here’s one example (which the Daily Mail attributes to “one travelling fan, who did have a ticket and who brought a replica World Cup for the occasion.”): “I scanned my ticket because I had one, but nobody checked my flag or my trophy… There were volunteers who were basically old ladies and they weren't stopping anyone.”

Good for you sir for scanning your ticket. And good for you for caring about flag security.

But why are you and your fellow ticket holders complaining about nobody checking your flag at a moment when the rest of your compatriots are complaining about not being able to fly their favorite flag?

Anyway, this is what we have so far:

• English fan complaint #1: Security is too strict! They won't let us bring/hang our flags!

• English fan complaint #2: Security is too lazy! They aren’t even checking our flags!

Talk about a divided, self-contradicting fan base that wants to have their mushy peas and eat them too!

Or are they?

To be fair to the English fans, we’ve based everything we’ve said so far off nothing more than a couple of quotes lifted from our favorite daily rag — the Daily Mail.

And, as our editor will surely attest, when editors need a sensational story, they have no qualms with selectively picking and choosing 1-2 quotes and building 700 words worth of national-identity-defining diatribe around it. That’s how we end up with “Dan, 28, from East London” saying one thing while “one travelling fan, who did have a ticket and who brought a replica World Cup for the occasion” says another.

[Editor’s note: This is true. We don’t care about consistency if it gets in the way of our engagement metrics.]

And let’s face it, this isn't just happening in the sports section.

Whether it’s politics, culture wars… or debates about whether jellied eels are best served over mushy peas or boiled potatoes… it’s easy to get the wrong impression when your only experience of the other side comes from two soundbites and an editor with an agenda.

So do yourself a favor this World Cup.

Put down the tabloid, walk into a pub, and drink a pint with an opposition fan. Even if they’re an Englishman, you might just find that they’re an otherwise reasonable person who loves the game and hates the VAR just as much as you.

Cheers 🍻

⚽ USA vs Australia
🏟️ 2026 FIFA World Cup
📅 Friday 19 June; 21:00 (Europe/Paris)

• Why we’re watching: With these two leading their group, a victory in this game will secure a place in the knockouts.

• Top 3 Stats:

  • USA is currently #15 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • Australia is currently #23 in the FIFA World Rankings.

  • In three head-to-heads, the USA has two victories (2010, 2025), and Australia has one (2017).

• CXSports says: This match has “World Cup defining moment” written all over it. For background, the USA beat Paraguay, and Australia beat Turkey in round 1. That leaves these two tied on 3 points, and a win here for either side will virtually guarantee them a place in the knockout rounds. So with that background out of the way, let’s look at the probable outcome here.
  
  The USA probably should be favorites in this one. For starters, they’re playing at home in this game. They also won the most recent head-to-head between these two. And they’re also slightly better off in the FIFA rankings. And then there was their opener against Turkey — 4 goals scored (and just one conceded) suggests their attack is firing on all cylinders.
  
  With that said, the last head-to-head (October last year) wasn’t exactly what you’d call a “convincing” victory. Sure, the US more or less hogged possession and did end up on top. But when a team has almost double the possession of its opponent, but barely manages to produce any more shots, it’s clear that opponent can be “frustrating”. (USA had 63% possession and took 10 shots; Australia had 37% and still managed 8 shots).
  
  And there are signs Australia might be equally frustrating this time around, too. After all, they did just hold Turkey to a 2-0 clean sheet. And, if we look at their last 5 matches across all competitions, concessions have remained reasonably low with just 4 goals conceded at an average of 0.8 goals per game. So even if they struggle to take possession of the ball again, Australia could still be a difficult opponent to get the better of.
  
  So, in this case, there probably isn’t too much of a question over whether Australia can fend off the USA attack. Chances are, they can. The bigger question is whether the USA can manage to break through one more time and finish up in front. And here, some questions remain, particularly with Pulisic’s calf issue still being a case of “we’re playing it day-by-day.”
  
  And that leaves the possibility of a draw wide open. Yes, the USA technically has the better attacking depth. And yes, they still remain the marginal favorites. However, Australia still looks like it could be a very frustrating opponent here. As such, this one could easily end in either a draw, or a USA victory.

• Score prediction: 1-1 Draw or 2-1 for USA

Bet Option #1

• Bet: Double Chance (USA / Draw)

• Odds Range: 1.09-1.18

Bet Option #2

• Bet: Draw

• Odds Range: 3.55-4.74

Make your sportsbook work for you!

That’s a wrap for today. Tomorrow, we’ll be back with more action as we prepare for Netherlands vs. Sweden, Germany vs. Ivory Coast, and Ecuador vs. Curaçao.

Until then, we’re off to the pub.

Cheers.